NCAA Division 1A Football

Copyright 2004-2012, Paul Kislanko

The More Things Change...
The now-annual analysis of rant about the FBS schedule.
Intended Schedule Strength
A brief look at the effects of conference schedules on overall SOS (and therefore rankings.)
Relative Schedule Strength
#50 playing #1 should count more for #50 than it would for #10, right? But #10 playing #1 should count more than #60 playing #51.
Game-Interest formula for 2012
I'm embarrassed not to have thought of this refinement of my variation on Potemkin sooner.
Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5 Week 6 Week 7 Week 8 Week 9 Week 10 Week 11 Week 12 Week 13 Week 14 Week 15 Week 18
Closely related is the "surprise factor" for games in which the worse-ranked team wins.
Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5 Week 6 Week 7 Week 8 Week 9 Week 10 Week 11 Week 12 Week 13 Week 14 Week 18
Addition to team pages
Points below/above opponents' averages, with a nod to Bill James' baseball "smart stats"
Visualizing the Games Graph
50+ years of connectivity data, courtesy of Dr. Massey. Fewer interconference games and more games against non-FBS opponents are bad ideas. But you've heard that before.
10 November Connectivity
The games of Saturday, 10 November reduced the diameter of the games graph to 4, which is what it will be at the end of the season. Ratings should get better from here on.
Pseudo-Smith Set
Division 1's elite after 10 November's games.
Computer Ratings Ranking Correlations
How different (or alike) are different computer ratings?
Adjusted Stats - part 1
What would offensive and defensive stats look like without the cupcake games?
Adjusted Stats - part 2
Comparative stats - is that a good offense or a bunch of bad defenses?
Through games of 5 Jan 2013: Rushing Offense Passing Offense Total Offense Rushing Defense Passing Defense Total Defense
2012 actual Schedule Topology
The penultimate season actual schedule topology wrapup.
Index to team and conference schedules
Consolidated Schedules and Results
This is a consolidated and indexed version of Dr. Peter Wolfe's schedules and scores pages.
D1 Football Championship Subdivision
Division 2
Division 3

Interdivisional Results with scoring analysis

Division 1 schedule by week
Interconference results for FBS Conferences
Division and Conference Affiliations
For all teams, based upon Dr. Wolfe's NCAA and NAIA Divisional and Conference Affiliations page.

Kenneth Massey's College Football Ratings Comparison page.
Pre-Season Week 1 Week 2 Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
Week 6
Week 7
Week 8
Week 9
Week 10
Week 11
Week 12
Week 13
Week 14
Week 15
WRRV is the Weighted Retrodictive Ranking Violation
David Wilson's Rankings List.
Where to go when you get old enough that your memory fails or you're too young to remember what happened before you were born.
I no longer make the link explicit because if you go there your browser will continuously run ads and you have no way to stop them. A valuable resource is now useless.
NCAA Stats home
The horse's mouth, so to speak.
Ranking summaries by Team
FBS team ranks (average stats ignoring FCS opponents)
FCS team ranks (average stats ignoring FBS, D2, etc.)
Splits and situational stats - inside box scores
Boyd Nation's Iterative Strength Rating
Iterated Strength of Victory (ISR with SOV-based adjustments for each game)
Normalized Scoring Stats
Scoring data adjusted by opponents' strength

Directed Games Graph
These are not "ratings" per se, but count and make visible all of the "A beat B beat C beat ..." chains in the current games graph.
Second Order Winning Percentage (% of teams that the given team has a shorter or stronger A⇒... chain to other teams than the other way around.)
Weighted by the length and strength of the A⇒ paths to opponents.

Often people who are not familiar with the nature and limitations of statistical methods tend to expect too much of the rating system. Ratings provide merely a comparison of performances, no more and no less. The measurement of the performance of an individual is always made relative to the performance of his competitors and both the performance of the player and of his opponents are subject to much the same random fluctuations. The measurement of the rating of an individual might well be compared with the measurement of the position of a cork bobbing up and down on the surface of agitated water with a yard stick tied to a rope and which is swaying in the wind.
Arpad Elo in Chess Life, 1962
In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice; In practice, there is.
Chuck Reid

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