This "surprise" factor combines the scoring and rank difference for games in which the worse-ranked team wins against the better-ranked team.
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Unranked (non-FBS) teams are arbitrarily assigned a rank of one more than the worst-ranked FBS team.
| Date | Factor | Game |
| 15 Sep | 1.93 | #45 Virginia Tech 17 #74 Pittsburgh 35 |
| 1 Sep | 1.38 | #125 Youngstown St 31 #74 Pittsburgh 17 |
| 8 Sep | 1.00 | #15 Oklahoma St 38 #20 Arizona 59 |
| 1 Sep | 0.59 | #104 Texas St-San Marcos 30 #87 Houston 13 |
| 8 Sep | 0.55 | #73 Louisiana-Monroe 34 #47 Arkansas 31 |
| 8 Sep | 0.34 | #29 Wisconsin 7 #39 Oregon St 10 |
| 15 Sep | 0.30 | #125 Cal Poly SLO 24 #96 Wyoming 22 |
| 8 Sep | 0.29 | #125 North Dakota St 22 #109 Colorado St 7 |
| 15 Sep | 0.24 | #33 Brigham Young 21 #41 Utah 24 |
| 30 Aug | 0.23 | #125 Eastern Washington 20 #116 Idaho 3 |
| 8 Sep | 0.23 | #125 Illinois St 31 #116 Eastern Michigan 14 |
| 7 Sep | 0.22 | #41 Utah 20 #50 Utah St 27 |
| 8 Sep | 0.21 | #61 Penn State 16 #74 Virginia 17 |
| 3 Sep | 0.18 | #38 Georgia Tech 17 #45 Virginia Tech 20 |
| 30 Aug | 0.17 | #125 McNeese St 27 #107 Middle Tennessee St 21 |
| 8 Sep | 0.16 | #69 North Carolina 27 #80 Wake Forest 28 |
| 8 Sep | 0.06 | #125 Sacramento St 30 #118 Colorado 28 |
| 8 Sep | 0.06 | #125 Northern Arizona 17 #118 UNLV 14 |
| 1 Sep | 0.02 | #125 Tennessee-Martin 20 #122 Memphis 17 |
| 8 Sep | 0.02 | #82 Maryland 36 #81 Temple 27 |