Points Above/Below Opponents' Average

© Copyright 2012, Paul Kislanko

A favorite metric for baseball fans (to whom Bill James is a saint) is “Runs Below/Above Opponent Average” which is just the difference between the team’s average runs scored and allowed and its opponents’ opponents averages. Replacing “runs” with “points” I’ve added that information to the team pages.

I have added a table to each team's Schedule and Results page that provides the comparison to opponents' opponents scoring stats. The field definitions are:

Opponent's vs (team) vs Other Opponents (team) compared to O-Os
Record (team)'s w-l expressed as l-w total wins-total losses against other opponents
Points Scored (team)'s points allowed Average points scored against other opponents vs Other minus vs (team)
Points Allowed (team)'s Points scored Average points allowed to other opponents vs (team) minus vs Other
Margin (team)'s pa - (team)'s ps ps vs Other - pa vs Other margin vs (team) + margin vs Other
Total (team)'s pa + (team)'s ps ps vs Other + pa vs Other total vs (team) - total vs Other

These are telling metrics in MLB, where the entire League is included as an Opponent and everyone in the opposite League is included as an Opponent's Opponent (with fewer data points) and even D1 college baseball, where on average nearly 60 percent of the field is connected by no worse than opponents' opponent relationship.

The (team) comparison to O-Os performance by "Margin" would be a rating by itself were D1 (FBS) football schedules as well-connected, but they aren't. Nonetheless, the data produced by the calculations are at least interesting.