This "surprise" factor combines the scoring and rank difference for games in which the worse-ranked team wins against the better-ranked team.
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Unranked (non-FBS) teams are arbitrarily assigned a rank of one more than the worst-ranked FBS team.
| Date | Factor | Game |
| 17 Nov | 15.33 | #6 Kansas St 24 #29 Baylor 52 |
| 6 Oct | 12.21 | #19 UCLA 17 #77 California 43 |
| 8 Sep | 7.37 | #38 Kent St 14 #94 Kentucky 47 |
| 27 Sep | 4.86 | #7 Stanford 13 #41 Washington 17 |
| 1 Dec | 3.44 | #16 Nebraska 31 #27 Wisconsin 70 |
| 6 Oct | 3.20 | #15 Florida St 16 #63 North Carolina St 17 |
| 1 Sep | 3.13 | #77 Ohio U. 24 #30 Penn State 14 |
| 10 Nov | 2.50 | #7 Texas A&M 29 #2 Alabama 24 |
| 1 Sep | 2.17 | #76 Iowa 18 #24 Northern Illinois 17 |
| 1 Sep | 2.17 | #125 Youngstown St 31 #60 Pittsburgh 17 |
| 27 Oct | 2.00 | #3 Florida 9 #9 Georgia 17 |
| 27 Oct | 1.93 | #14 Oregon St 17 #41 Washington 20 |
| 8 Sep | 1.90 | #30 Penn State 16 #87 Virginia 17 |
| 8 Sep | 1.65 | #20 Oklahoma St 38 #31 Arizona 59 |
| 3 Nov | 1.52 | #87 Virginia 31 #63 North Carolina St 6 |
| 29 Sep | 1.40 | #73 Western Kentucky 26 #43 Arkansas St 13 |
| 24 Nov | 1.39 | #41 Rutgers 6 #60 Pittsburgh 27 |
| 27 Oct | 1.31 | #29 Baylor 21 #48 Iowa St 35 |
| 23 Nov | 1.20 | #41 Washington 28 #90 Washington St 31 |
| 24 Nov | 1.15 | #84 Connecticut 23 #39 Louisville 20 |
| 10 Nov | 1.00 | #39 Louisville 26 #52 Syracuse 45 |
| 13 Oct | 0.95 | #37 West Virginia 14 #44 Texas Tech 49 |
| 6 Oct | 0.91 | #48 Iowa St 37 #33 TCU 23 |
| 10 Nov | 0.90 | #106 Florida Atlantic 37 #73 Western Kentucky 28 |
| 6 Oct | 0.89 | #9 Georgia 7 #11 South Carolina 35 |
| 3 Nov | 0.86 | #87 Air Force 21 #112 Army 41 |
| 24 Nov | 0.81 | #37 Mississippi St 24 #47 Mississippi 41 |
| 13 Oct | 0.77 | #76 Iowa 19 #43 Michigan St 16 |
| 30 Aug | 0.76 | #125 McNeese St 27 #71 Middle Tennessee St 21 |
| 5 Oct | 0.76 | #25 Utah St 3 #44 Brigham Young 6 |
| 17 Nov | 0.75 | #7 Stanford 17 #4 Oregon 14 |
| 10 Nov | 0.74 | #66 Georgia Tech 68 #53 North Carolina 50 |
| 6 Oct | 0.68 | #37 West Virginia 48 #22 Texas 45 |
| 16 Oct | 0.67 | #58 Louisiana-Lafayette 23 #97 North Texas 30 |
| 10 Nov | 0.67 | #52 Miami FL 40 #87 Virginia 41 |
| 10 Nov | 0.66 | #64 Navy 31 #85 Troy 41 |
| 8 Sep | 0.64 | #53 North Carolina 27 #87 Wake Forest 28 |
| 27 Oct | 0.59 | #43 Michigan St 16 #27 Wisconsin 13 |
| 24 Nov | 0.57 | #49 Tulsa 27 #77 SMU 35 |
| 13 Oct | 0.55 | #33 TCU 49 #29 Baylor 21 |
| 3 Nov | 0.55 | #45 San Diego St 21 #29 Boise St 19 |
| 22 Sep | 0.53 | #32 Fresno St 26 #49 Tulsa 27 |
| 13 Oct | 0.52 | #77 SMU 26 #117 Tulane 27 |
| 22 Nov | 0.50 | #33 TCU 20 #22 Texas 13 |
| 31 Aug | 0.48 | #29 Boise St 13 #43 Michigan St 17 |
| 8 Sep | 0.48 | #125 North Dakota St 22 #101 Colorado St 7 |
| 26 Oct | 0.48 | #75 Nevada 31 #87 Air Force 48 |
| 15 Sep | 0.45 | #44 Brigham Young 21 #64 Utah 24 |
| 1 Dec | 0.45 | #20 Oklahoma St 34 #29 Baylor 41 |
| 29 Sep | 0.44 | #94 Houston 35 #82 Rice 14 |
| 20 Oct | 0.44 | #36 Cincinnati 23 #52 Toledo 29 |
| 15 Sep | 0.43 | #37 Arizona St 20 #53 Missouri 24 |
| 20 Oct | 0.43 | #10 LSU 24 #7 Texas A&M 19 |
| 27 Oct | 0.41 | #22 Southern Cal 36 #31 Arizona 39 |
| 9 Nov | 0.40 | #60 Pittsburgh 17 #84 Connecticut 24 |
| 3 Nov | 0.39 | #49 Tulsa 15 #68 Arkansas 19 |
| 20 Oct | 0.38 | #53 North Carolina 30 #73 Duke 33 |
| 22 Sep | 0.37 | #52 Syracuse 10 #71 Minnesota 17 |
| 15 Sep | 0.35 | #60 Louisiana-Monroe 28 #81 Auburn 31 |
| 29 Sep | 0.35 | #125 Stony Brook 23 #112 Army 3 |
| 27 Oct | 0.34 | #77 Ohio U. 20 #103 Miami OH 23 |
| 22 Sep | 0.33 | #87 Air Force 35 #116 UNLV 38 |
| 20 Oct | 0.33 | #44 Texas Tech 56 #33 TCU 53 |
| 15 Sep | 0.30 | #125 Cal Poly SLO 24 #96 Wyoming 22 |
| 6 Oct | 0.30 | #82 Rice 10 #107 Memphis 14 |
| 1 Sep | 0.29 | #103 Texas St-San Marcos 30 #94 Houston 13 |
| 8 Sep | 0.29 | #125 Illinois St 31 #114 Eastern Michigan 14 |
| 22 Sep | 0.28 | #115 Colorado 35 #90 Washington St 34 |
| 29 Sep | 0.28 | #29 Baylor 63 #37 West Virginia 70 |
| 3 Nov | 0.26 | #109 New Mexico 7 #116 UNLV 35 |
| 27 Oct | 0.25 | #85 Troy 27 #106 Florida Atlantic 34 |
| 3 Nov | 0.25 | #100 Western Michigan 42 #89 Central Michigan 31 |
| 29 Sep | 0.23 | #71 Middle Tennessee St 49 #66 Georgia Tech 28 |
| 6 Oct | 0.22 | #27 Northwestern 28 #30 Penn State 39 |
| 1 Sep | 0.21 | #100 Western Michigan 7 #107 Illinois 24 |
| 8 Sep | 0.21 | #91 South Florida 32 #75 Nevada 31 |
| 29 Sep | 0.21 | #71 Minnesota 13 #76 Iowa 31 |
| 8 Sep | 0.19 | #16 Nebraska 30 #19 UCLA 36 |
| 22 Sep | 0.19 | #84 Connecticut 24 #100 Western Michigan 30 |
| 10 Nov | 0.19 | #94 Marshall 31 #112 Alabama-Birmingham 38 |
| 17 Nov | 0.19 | #77 SMU 14 #82 Rice 36 |
| 23 Nov | 0.19 | #37 Arizona St 41 #31 Arizona 34 |
| 1 Sep | 0.17 | #125 Tennessee-Martin 20 #107 Memphis 17 |
| 22 Sep | 0.17 | #89 Central Michigan 32 #76 Iowa 31 |
| 6 Oct | 0.17 | #103 Texas St-San Marcos 14 #109 New Mexico 35 |
| 22 Sep | 0.15 | #94 Marshall 54 #82 Rice 51 |
| 27 Oct | 0.15 | #92 Maryland 17 #106 Boston College 20 |
| 27 Oct | 0.15 | #66 Purdue 28 #71 Minnesota 44 |
| 17 Nov | 0.14 | #41 Rutgers 10 #36 Cincinnati 3 |
| 17 Nov | 0.14 | #114 Eastern Michigan 29 #100 Western Michigan 23 |
| 30 Aug | 0.13 | #125 Eastern Washington 20 #120 Idaho 3 |
| 13 Oct | 0.13 | #25 Utah St 49 #24 San Jose State 27 |
| 20 Oct | 0.12 | #106 Florida Atlantic 34 #119 South Alabama 37 |
| 3 Nov | 0.11 | #76 Iowa 21 #84 Indiana 24 |
| 24 Nov | 0.11 | #27 Wisconsin 21 #30 Penn State 24 |
| 29 Sep | 0.10 | #22 Texas 41 #20 Oklahoma St 36 |
| 8 Sep | 0.09 | #125 Sacramento St 30 #115 Colorado 28 |
| 27 Oct | 0.09 | #112 Alabama-Birmingham 45 #117 Tulane 55 |
| 8 Sep | 0.08 | #125 Northern Arizona 17 #116 UNLV 14 |
| 15 Sep | 0.08 | #25 Utah St 14 #27 Wisconsin 16 |
| 26 Oct | 0.08 | #36 Cincinnati 31 #39 Louisville 34 |
| 3 Nov | 0.08 | #84 Connecticut 6 #91 South Florida 13 |
| 8 Sep | 0.07 | #92 Maryland 36 #89 Temple 27 |
| 6 Oct | 0.06 | #106 Boston College 31 #112 Army 34 |
| 6 Oct | 0.06 | #87 Wake Forest 14 #92 Maryland 19 |
| 13 Oct | 0.06 | #89 Temple 17 #84 Connecticut 14 |
| 13 Oct | 0.06 | #92 Maryland 27 #87 Virginia 20 |
| 20 Oct | 0.04 | #112 Army 38 #114 Eastern Michigan 48 |
| 31 Aug | 0.03 | #64 Tennessee 35 #63 North Carolina St 21 |
| 29 Sep | 0.02 | #53 Missouri 21 #52 Central Florida 16 |
| 13 Oct | 0.02 | #53 North Carolina 18 #52 Miami FL 14 |
| 10 Nov | 0.01 | #122 Massachusetts 22 #121 Akron 14 |