This "surprise" factor combines the scoring and rank difference for games in which the worse-ranked team wins against the better-ranked team.
| ||||
|
Unranked (non-FBS) teams are arbitrarily assigned a rank of one more than the worst-ranked FBS team.
| Date | Factor | Game |
| 6 Oct | 6.29 | #28 UCLA 17 #72 California 43 |
| 8 Sep | 5.71 | #42 Kent St 14 #90 Kentucky 47 |
| 6 Oct | 3.58 | #12 Florida St 16 #55 North Carolina St 17 |
| 3 Nov | 3.49 | #103 Virginia 31 #55 North Carolina St 6 |
| 3 Nov | 3.32 | #19 Arizona 10 #28 UCLA 66 |
| 27 Oct | 3.00 | #11 Oregon St 17 #44 Washington 20 |
| 27 Sep | 2.38 | #13 Stanford 13 #44 Washington 17 |
| 3 Nov | 1.90 | #71 Air Force 21 #116 Army 41 |
| 3 Nov | 1.77 | #61 San Diego St 21 #22 Boise St 19 |
| 8 Sep | 1.58 | #40 Penn State 16 #103 Virginia 17 |
| 1 Sep | 1.47 | #125 Youngstown St 31 #72 Pittsburgh 17 |
| 3 Nov | 1.40 | #80 Louisiana-Lafayette 40 #47 Louisiana-Monroe 24 |
| 1 Sep | 1.15 | #63 Ohio U. 24 #40 Penn State 14 |
| 3 Nov | 1.08 | #85 New Mexico 7 #108 UNLV 35 |
| 27 Oct | 1.00 | #5 Florida 9 #10 Georgia 17 |
| 3 Nov | 0.93 | #22 Texas 31 #15 Texas Tech 22 |
| 15 Sep | 0.83 | #47 Louisiana-Monroe 28 #86 Auburn 31 |
| 8 Sep | 0.78 | #46 North Carolina 27 #82 Wake Forest 28 |
| 13 Oct | 0.69 | #61 Iowa 19 #36 Michigan St 16 |
| 1 Sep | 0.65 | #61 Iowa 18 #37 Northern Illinois 17 |
| 31 Aug | 0.64 | #22 Boise St 13 #36 Michigan St 17 |
| 30 Aug | 0.62 | #125 McNeese St 27 #77 Middle Tennessee St 21 |
| 1 Nov | 0.57 | #77 Middle Tennessee St 34 #49 Western Kentucky 29 |
| 22 Sep | 0.56 | #95 Central Michigan 32 #61 Iowa 31 |
| 27 Oct | 0.55 | #42 Kent St 35 #33 Rutgers 23 |
| 3 Nov | 0.55 | #42 Tulsa 15 #65 Arkansas 19 |
| 22 Sep | 0.52 | #71 Air Force 35 #108 UNLV 38 |
| 15 Sep | 0.51 | #41 Brigham Young 21 #62 Utah 24 |
| 3 Nov | 0.50 | #42 TCU 39 #28 West Virginia 38 |
| 1 Sep | 0.40 | #93 Texas St-San Marcos 30 #82 Houston 13 |
| 8 Sep | 0.40 | #20 Nebraska 30 #28 UCLA 36 |
| 6 Oct | 0.40 | #10 Georgia 7 #11 South Carolina 35 |
| 27 Oct | 0.40 | #63 Ohio U. 20 #88 Miami OH 23 |
| 13 Oct | 0.39 | #79 SMU 26 #110 Tulane 27 |
| 15 Sep | 0.38 | #64 Virginia Tech 17 #72 Pittsburgh 35 |
| 8 Sep | 0.36 | #125 North Dakota St 22 #106 Colorado St 7 |
| 15 Sep | 0.35 | #37 Arizona St 20 #50 Missouri 24 |
| 6 Oct | 0.35 | #34 Northwestern 28 #40 Penn State 39 |
| 20 Oct | 0.35 | #46 North Carolina 30 #62 Duke 33 |
| 8 Sep | 0.29 | #125 Illinois St 31 #114 Eastern Michigan 14 |
| 6 Oct | 0.27 | #28 West Virginia 48 #22 Texas 45 |
| 3 Nov | 0.26 | #88 Miami OH 24 #111 Buffalo 27 |
| 3 Nov | 0.25 | #61 Iowa 21 #76 Indiana 24 |
| 29 Sep | 0.23 | #125 Stony Brook 23 #116 Army 3 |
| 27 Oct | 0.23 | #86 Troy 27 #106 Florida Atlantic 34 |
| 22 Sep | 0.22 | #113 Colorado 35 #93 Washington St 34 |
| 8 Sep | 0.21 | #85 South Florida 32 #70 Nevada 31 |
| 6 Oct | 0.21 | #98 Rice 10 #119 Memphis 14 |
| 1 Sep | 0.19 | #95 Western Michigan 7 #101 Illinois 24 |
| 21 Sep | 0.19 | #56 Baylor 47 #47 Louisiana-Monroe 42 |
| 27 Oct | 0.19 | #85 Maryland 17 #101 Boston College 20 |
| 15 Sep | 0.18 | #125 Cal Poly SLO 24 #106 Wyoming 22 |
| 16 Oct | 0.18 | #80 Louisiana-Lafayette 23 #94 North Texas 30 |
| 8 Sep | 0.16 | #125 Northern Arizona 17 #108 UNLV 14 |
| 6 Oct | 0.16 | #58 Vanderbilt 19 #50 Missouri 15 |
| 6 Oct | 0.15 | #101 Boston College 31 #116 Army 34 |
| 5 Oct | 0.14 | #36 Utah St 3 #41 Brigham Young 6 |
| 15 Sep | 0.13 | #96 Connecticut 24 #85 Maryland 21 |
| 8 Sep | 0.11 | #125 Sacramento St 30 #113 Colorado 28 |
| 30 Aug | 0.10 | #125 Eastern Washington 20 #121 Idaho 3 |
| 13 Oct | 0.10 | #62 Duke 20 #64 Virginia Tech 41 |
| 6 Oct | 0.07 | #85 South Florida 28 #88 Temple 37 |
| 20 Oct | 0.06 | #106 Florida Atlantic 34 #112 South Alabama 37 |
| 27 Oct | 0.06 | #18 Southern Cal 36 #19 Arizona 39 |
| 1 Sep | 0.05 | #125 Tennessee-Martin 20 #119 Memphis 17 |
| 29 Sep | 0.05 | #55 North Carolina St 37 #58 Miami FL 44 |
| 29 Sep | 0.05 | #22 Texas 41 #21 Oklahoma St 36 |
| 6 Oct | 0.04 | #82 Wake Forest 14 #85 Maryland 19 |
| 26 Oct | 0.04 | #70 Nevada 31 #71 Air Force 48 |
| 3 Nov | 0.04 | #82 Houston 28 #83 East Carolina 48 |
| 3 Nov | 0.04 | #86 Georgia Tech 33 #85 Maryland 13 |
| 27 Oct | 0.03 | #36 Michigan St 16 #35 Wisconsin 13 |
| 8 Sep | 0.02 | #98 Rice 25 #96 Kansas 24 |