This "surprise" factor combines the scoring and rank difference for games in which the worse-ranked team wins against the better-ranked team.
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Unranked (non-FBS) teams are arbitrarily assigned a rank of one more than the worst-ranked FBS team.
| Date | Factor | Game |
| 13 Oct | 10.83 | #6 West Virginia 14 #19 Texas Tech 49 |
| 13 Oct | 4.67 | #3 South Carolina 21 #17 LSU 23 |
| 13 Oct | 2.43 | #37 TCU 49 #23 Baylor 21 |
| 27 Sep | 2.08 | #13 Stanford 13 #40 Washington 17 |
| 13 Oct | 2.00 | #60 Utah St 49 #36 San Jose State 27 |
| 6 Oct | 1.47 | #19 Florida St 16 #47 North Carolina St 17 |
| 13 Oct | 1.47 | #47 Duke 20 #70 Virginia Tech 41 |
| 6 Oct | 1.33 | #48 UCLA 17 #64 California 43 |
| 8 Sep | 1.22 | #41 Penn State 16 #91 Virginia 17 |
| 13 Oct | 1.13 | #82 Texas-San Antonio 14 #113 Rice 34 |
| 1 Sep | 1.05 | #125 Youngstown St 31 #82 Pittsburgh 17 |
| 13 Oct | 1.00 | #14 Oklahoma 63 #12 Texas 21 |
| 15 Sep | 0.96 | #25 Arizona St 20 #49 Missouri 24 |
| 13 Oct | 0.86 | #54 Iowa 19 #29 Michigan St 16 |
| 8 Sep | 0.84 | #44 North Carolina 27 #81 Wake Forest 28 |
| 8 Sep | 0.82 | #67 Kent St 14 #78 Kentucky 47 |
| 22 Sep | 0.72 | #93 Central Michigan 32 #54 Iowa 31 |
| 8 Sep | 0.69 | #81 South Florida 32 #48 Nevada 31 |
| 15 Sep | 0.59 | #44 Brigham Young 21 #70 Utah 24 |
| 15 Sep | 0.51 | #70 Virginia Tech 17 #82 Pittsburgh 35 |
| 30 Aug | 0.49 | #125 McNeese St 27 #84 Middle Tennessee St 21 |
| 13 Oct | 0.49 | #81 SMU 26 #121 Tulane 27 |
| 8 Sep | 0.47 | #32 Oklahoma St 38 #37 Arizona 59 |
| 29 Sep | 0.38 | #125 Stony Brook 23 #111 Army 3 |
| 1 Sep | 0.37 | #101 Texas St-San Marcos 30 #90 Houston 13 |
| 15 Sep | 0.33 | #57 Louisiana-Monroe 28 #76 Auburn 31 |
| 15 Sep | 0.29 | #125 Cal Poly SLO 24 #97 Wyoming 22 |
| 6 Oct | 0.27 | #62 Vanderbilt 19 #49 Missouri 15 |
| 1 Sep | 0.21 | #87 Western Michigan 7 #93 Illinois 24 |
| 8 Sep | 0.21 | #125 North Dakota St 22 #113 Colorado St 7 |
| 1 Sep | 0.20 | #54 Iowa 18 #45 Northern Illinois 17 |
| 22 Sep | 0.20 | #115 Colorado 35 #96 Washington St 34 |
| 30 Aug | 0.18 | #125 Eastern Washington 20 #118 Idaho 3 |
| 8 Sep | 0.17 | #41 Nebraska 30 #48 UCLA 36 |
| 1 Sep | 0.15 | #44 Ohio U. 24 #41 Penn State 14 |
| 22 Sep | 0.14 | #97 Air Force 35 #111 UNLV 38 |
| 22 Sep | 0.14 | #76 Connecticut 24 #87 Western Michigan 30 |
| 8 Sep | 0.13 | #125 Illinois St 31 #120 Eastern Michigan 14 |
| 8 Sep | 0.13 | #125 Northern Arizona 17 #111 UNLV 14 |
| 15 Sep | 0.13 | #76 Connecticut 24 #67 Maryland 21 |
| 31 Aug | 0.12 | #26 Boise St 13 #29 Michigan St 17 |
| 8 Sep | 0.09 | #125 Sacramento St 30 #115 Colorado 28 |
| 8 Sep | 0.09 | #113 Rice 25 #104 Kansas 24 |
| 1 Sep | 0.08 | #125 Tennessee-Martin 20 #116 Memphis 17 |
| 6 Oct | 0.08 | #103 Boston College 31 #111 Army 34 |
| 6 Oct | 0.03 | #113 Rice 10 #116 Memphis 14 |