This "surprise" factor combines the scoring and rank difference for games in which the worse-ranked team wins against the better-ranked team.
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Unranked (non-FBS) teams are arbitrarily assigned a rank of one more than the worst-ranked FBS team.
| Date | Factor | Game |
| 6 Oct | 11.79 | #19 UCLA 17 #75 California 43 |
| 10 Nov | 8.00 | #9 Texas A&M 29 #1 Alabama 24 |
| 10 Nov | 7.20 | #20 Louisville 26 #68 Syracuse 45 |
| 8 Sep | 5.80 | #44 Kent St 14 #95 Kentucky 47 |
| 6 Oct | 4.83 | #12 Florida St 16 #70 North Carolina St 17 |
| 27 Oct | 2.55 | #11 Oregon St 17 #39 Washington 20 |
| 10 Nov | 2.23 | #75 Georgia Tech 68 #43 North Carolina 50 |
| 27 Sep | 1.79 | #14 Stanford 13 #39 Washington 17 |
| 8 Sep | 1.72 | #32 Penn State 16 #87 Virginia 17 |
| 1 Sep | 1.69 | #59 Ohio U. 24 #32 Penn State 14 |
| 1 Sep | 1.68 | #125 Youngstown St 31 #68 Pittsburgh 17 |
| 10 Nov | 1.57 | #107 Florida Atlantic 37 #60 Western Kentucky 28 |
| 6 Oct | 1.05 | #39 West Virginia 48 #19 Texas 45 |
| 10 Nov | 1.03 | #58 Navy 31 #88 Troy 41 |
| 1 Sep | 1.00 | #68 Iowa 18 #34 Northern Illinois 17 |
| 3 Nov | 0.97 | #87 Virginia 31 #70 North Carolina St 6 |
| 6 Oct | 0.89 | #9 Georgia 7 #11 South Carolina 35 |
| 3 Nov | 0.88 | #82 Air Force 21 #106 Army 41 |
| 30 Aug | 0.81 | #125 McNeese St 27 #69 Middle Tennessee St 21 |
| 27 Oct | 0.80 | #5 Florida 9 #9 Georgia 17 |
| 8 Sep | 0.78 | #23 Oklahoma St 38 #29 Arizona 59 |
| 8 Sep | 0.74 | #43 North Carolina 27 #75 Wake Forest 28 |
| 10 Nov | 0.71 | #51 Miami FL 40 #87 Virginia 41 |
| 6 Nov | 0.69 | #61 Ball St 34 #36 Toledo 27 |
| 27 Oct | 0.67 | #44 Kent St 35 #33 Rutgers 23 |
| 13 Oct | 0.62 | #68 Iowa 19 #42 Michigan St 16 |
| 27 Oct | 0.59 | #59 Ohio U. 20 #94 Miami OH 23 |
| 3 Nov | 0.58 | #52 San Diego St 21 #33 Boise St 19 |
| 29 Sep | 0.54 | #125 Stony Brook 23 #106 Army 3 |
| 7 Nov | 0.51 | #74 Bowling Green 26 #59 Ohio U. 14 |
| 20 Oct | 0.49 | #43 North Carolina 30 #64 Duke 33 |
| 22 Sep | 0.47 | #100 Central Michigan 32 #68 Iowa 31 |
| 9 Nov | 0.46 | #68 Pittsburgh 17 #99 Connecticut 24 |
| 3 Nov | 0.45 | #71 Louisiana-Lafayette 40 #58 Louisiana-Monroe 24 |
| 26 Oct | 0.42 | #72 Nevada 31 #82 Air Force 48 |
| 15 Sep | 0.40 | #58 Louisiana-Monroe 28 #81 Auburn 31 |
| 1 Sep | 0.38 | #98 Texas St-San Marcos 30 #87 Houston 13 |
| 1 Sep | 0.38 | #88 Western Michigan 7 #99 Illinois 24 |
| 16 Oct | 0.37 | #71 Louisiana-Lafayette 23 #97 North Texas 30 |
| 13 Oct | 0.36 | #83 SMU 26 #113 Tulane 27 |
| 5 Oct | 0.32 | #31 Utah St 3 #41 Brigham Young 6 |
| 27 Oct | 0.32 | #22 Southern Cal 36 #29 Arizona 39 |
| 15 Sep | 0.29 | #41 Brigham Young 21 #53 Utah 24 |
| 10 Nov | 0.29 | #102 UNLV 11 #112 Colorado St 33 |
| 31 Aug | 0.27 | #33 Boise St 13 #42 Michigan St 17 |
| 10 Nov | 0.27 | #11 Oregon St 23 #14 Stanford 27 |
| 22 Sep | 0.24 | #82 Air Force 35 #102 UNLV 38 |
| 27 Oct | 0.24 | #42 Michigan St 16 #34 Wisconsin 13 |
| 8 Sep | 0.23 | #125 North Dakota St 22 #112 Colorado St 7 |
| 8 Sep | 0.23 | #125 Illinois St 31 #116 Eastern Michigan 14 |
| 8 Sep | 0.23 | #125 Northern Arizona 17 #102 UNLV 14 |
| 6 Oct | 0.23 | #96 Rice 10 #118 Memphis 14 |
| 27 Oct | 0.22 | #88 Troy 27 #107 Florida Atlantic 34 |
| 15 Sep | 0.21 | #38 Arizona St 20 #46 Missouri 24 |
| 15 Sep | 0.21 | #125 Cal Poly SLO 24 #103 Wyoming 22 |
| 6 Oct | 0.21 | #75 Wake Forest 14 #91 Maryland 19 |
| 8 Nov | 0.21 | #58 Louisiana-Monroe 23 #62 Arkansas St 45 |
| 10 Nov | 0.20 | #91 Marshall 31 #109 Alabama-Birmingham 38 |
| 22 Sep | 0.19 | #115 Colorado 35 #97 Washington St 34 |
| 13 Oct | 0.19 | #64 Duke 20 #68 Virginia Tech 41 |
| 20 Oct | 0.19 | #106 Army 38 #116 Eastern Michigan 48 |
| 10 Nov | 0.19 | #88 Western Michigan 24 #105 Buffalo 29 |
| 22 Sep | 0.16 | #45 Fresno St 26 #52 Tulsa 27 |
| 10 Nov | 0.16 | #79 Purdue 27 #68 Iowa 24 |
| 6 Oct | 0.15 | #82 South Florida 28 #88 Temple 37 |
| 1 Nov | 0.15 | #69 Middle Tennessee St 34 #60 Western Kentucky 29 |
| 3 Nov | 0.15 | #52 Tulsa 15 #60 Arkansas 19 |
| 8 Sep | 0.14 | #82 South Florida 32 #72 Nevada 31 |
| 30 Aug | 0.13 | #125 Eastern Washington 20 #120 Idaho 3 |
| 8 Sep | 0.12 | #17 Nebraska 30 #19 UCLA 36 |
| 27 Oct | 0.12 | #91 Maryland 17 #102 Boston College 20 |
| 3 Nov | 0.12 | #94 Miami OH 24 #105 Buffalo 27 |
| 3 Nov | 0.12 | #99 New Mexico 7 #102 UNLV 35 |
| 15 Sep | 0.10 | #31 Utah St 14 #34 Wisconsin 16 |
| 29 Sep | 0.10 | #46 Missouri 21 #42 Central Florida 16 |
| 8 Sep | 0.09 | #125 Sacramento St 30 #115 Colorado 28 |
| 15 Sep | 0.09 | #99 Connecticut 24 #91 Maryland 21 |
| 10 Nov | 0.09 | #113 Tulane 23 #118 Memphis 37 |
| 20 Oct | 0.08 | #107 Florida Atlantic 34 #116 South Alabama 37 |
| 8 Sep | 0.07 | #91 Maryland 36 #88 Temple 27 |
| 27 Oct | 0.07 | #109 Alabama-Birmingham 45 #113 Tulane 55 |
| 1 Sep | 0.06 | #125 Tennessee-Martin 20 #118 Memphis 17 |
| 6 Oct | 0.06 | #31 Northwestern 28 #32 Penn State 39 |
| 6 Oct | 0.06 | #37 Iowa St 37 #36 TCU 23 |
| 13 Oct | 0.05 | #91 Maryland 27 #87 Virginia 20 |
| 6 Oct | 0.04 | #102 Boston College 31 #106 Army 34 |
| 3 Nov | 0.04 | #68 Iowa 21 #71 Indiana 24 |
| 10 Nov | 0.04 | #124 Massachusetts 22 #119 Akron 14 |
| 10 Nov | 0.04 | #103 Wyoming 28 #99 New Mexico 23 |
| 6 Oct | 0.03 | #98 Texas St-San Marcos 14 #99 New Mexico 35 |
| 6 Oct | 0.02 | #47 Vanderbilt 19 #46 Missouri 15 |
| 22 Sep | 0.01 | #68 Syracuse 10 #69 Minnesota 17 |