NCAA Division 1A Football

Copyright 2004-2007, Paul Kislanko

23Jul072007 Bowl Subdivision Schedule The now annual look at the schedule topology - how teams are related by opponents, opponents' opponents, etc. connections.
There's an August 6th update.
25Jul07"Intended" SOS for 2007 A look at each team's schedule strength based upon its opponents' results from 2006.
28Jul07Comparing Rankings Uses the Kendall τ Rank correlation to compare various rankings from the 2006 season
6Aug07Scheduling Combinatorics Describes some of the difficulties ADs face in non-conference scheduling
18Aug07Rating Games Assigns an "interest value" to each game based upon the teams' ranks and describes how that might be used to rank schedules by team and conference.
27Aug07Rating Upsets Quantifies the magniture of an upset - a one point win over an opponent ranked just a few spots better isn't the surprise a two-score win over #1 is.
6Sep07Rating upsets part 2 Provides examples from week one and the first Weighted Retrodictive Ranking Violations report for 2007.
10Sep07Using the Directed Games Graph Provides the explanation for the "Weighted Wins" and "Second Order Winning Percentage" sort sequences for the presentation of the directed games graph.
22Sep07Applying the Directed Games Graph to Analyze Ratings Demonstrates a specific application to early-season SOS and ranking violation resolution (what to do when A beats B, B beats C, and C beats A?) Uses how wins "fit" within the overall games graph to assign different values to wins based upon opponents' ratings.
29Sep07Including 1-AA? The 12-game schedule and relaxed rules regarding countable games against Championship Subdivision teams require some tweaks to the ratings calculations. This article describes them.
16Oct07Meta Rankings and Team Resumes Encodes the "resume" voting phiolosophy as a meta-ranking of any input computer rating system.
19Oct07Scoring trends - through week 7 Summaries of average scores by opponent categories half-way through the season (through games of 14 October).
23Nov07Bowling for (BCS) Dollars How Roy Kramer and the BCS changed the college football landscape for the better, BCS-bashers notwithstanding.
5Dec07Grading the 2007 season Parity or Regression to the mean? Analyzing the crazy 2007 season from the Lake Woebegone perspective.
9Dec07Grading the 2007 teams Borrowing from the division one hockey method for selecting and seeding a tournament, teams with non-losing records are compared pairwise according to five different criteria.
19Jan08Grading the 2007 conferences Ranking the seasons had by conference that coincidentally contains those teams.
Conference name in the header links to consolidated schedule for all conference teams. Team names link to the teams' schedules.
Schedule & Results (Division 1) (Scores in CSV Format)
Quicklnks to weekends beginning: Aug: 30Sep: 6 13 20 27 Oct: 4 11 18 25 Nov: 1 8 15 22 29 Dec: 7

All NCAA and NAIA results by week beginning:
23 Aug 30 Aug
6 Sep 13 Sep 20 Sep 27 Sep
4 Oct 11 Oct 18 Oct 25 Oct
1 Nov 8 Nov 15 Nov 22 Nov 29 Nov
7 Dec 14 Dec

(source: Peter Wolfe's schedule page, scores from various sources.)
Team Resumes
Teams' results compared to how their opponents' have performed against their opponents' opponents. See the explanation.
Indexed by: ISOV ISR.
Resume by Opponents' Rank according to Computer Rankings.
Interdivisional records
Records and average scoring for interdivisional games.
Opponents' schedules and results by team.
A consolidated schedule for each team including all their opponents' games. Opponents are italicized.
Directed games graph: by SOWP by Weighted Wins
Head to head (to head to head ...) win chains. See this explanation.
Scoring Statistics
Average points scored and allowed by wins and losses.
Normalized Scoring Statistics
Points scored and allowed adjusted by SOS (opponents' points allowed and scored.) See the method's explanation.
Interconference results and intraconference metrics
A conference vs conference comparison that takes into account opponents' rankings.
Conference head-to-head results
Includes records vs common conference opponents for tiebreaking.
Polls and rankings:
Pre-Season The pre-season rankings by the most familiar publications, with each publication treated as a voter in a poll.
Fans Collective SurveyPre Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5 Week 6 Week 7 Week 8
Week 9 Week10 Week11 Week12 Week13 Week14 Final
College Football Rankings comparison
An invaluable resource compiled by Kenneth Massey.
Analysis by Week: Pre Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5 Week 6 Week 7 Week 8
Week 9 Week 10 Week 11 Week 12 Week 13 Week 14
Weighted Ranking Violations Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5 Week 6 Week 7 Week 8
Week 9 Week 10 Week 11 Week 12 Week 13 Week 14
David Wilson's Ranking List
Categorizes the rankings by type and links to current versions.
Splits and situational statistics
NCAA Official Stats
College Football Data Warehouse
Forget which year a game happened? Want all-time records? This is the place.
Iterative Strength of Victory A version of the ISR that includes MOV data. This provides the SOS data used to normalize scoring statistics.
(Including 1AA teams)
Iterative Strength Rating Boyd Nation's algorithm for combining winning percentage and a winning percentage-based Strength of Schedule.
(Including 1AA teams)

Often people who are not familiar with the nature and limitations of statistical methods tend to expect too much of the rating system. Ratings provide merely a comparison of performances, no more and no less. The measurement of the performance of an individual is always made relative to the performance of his competitors and both the performance of the player and of his opponents are subject to much the same random fluctuations. The measurement of the rating of an individual might well be compared with the measurement of the position of a cork bobbing up and down on the surface of agitated water with a yard stick tied to a rope and which is swaying in the wind.
Arpad Elo in Chess Life, 1962
In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice; In practice, there is.
Chuck Reid

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