Intended SOS

© Copyright 2012, Paul Kislanko

There are a gazillion (slang for "countably infinite") number of ways to define schedule strength. Most of them are ad-hoc inventions whose only value is to win a bar bet, but "SOS" however defined is a necessary consideration when winning percentage doesn't include games against every possible opponent.

For D1 baseball Boyd Nation introduced the notion of an "intended SOS" based upon how teams use their discretionary (non-conference) scheduling opportunities to improve (or not) their overall schedule.

It's harder to define an "intended" SOS in FBS because there are not enough non-conference games (even if they are against good teams) to offset a conference schedule that doesn't involve top teams. Conversely, even the worst imaginable non-conference schedule can lead to an overall schedule strength in the top quartile for a team in a "big six" conference.

By "Big 6" I mean "the conferences formerly referred to as BCS Automatic Qualifiers", and you'll still find "FBS_AQ" as a designation for those on this site. This article will partially explain why it is still meaningful to separate the FBS into subcategories, as will Interdivsional results (where FBS_AQ is designated as "BCS") when the 2012 version is complete.
I have a finite but large number of ways to calculate SOS based upon games-played, but before any games have been played there's not much to go on except how a team's opponents were ranked last year. The very notion of "intended" SOS is harder to pin down in football - the "scheduling horizon" is usually 7 or 8 years out. It almost makes sense in baseball because most non-conference games are scheduled for at most two seasons out.

The ones I'm about to describe are not ones I'd use to evaluate a team's SOS at the end of the season. Actually, I don't think I'd use 'em for any purpose except to illustrate the different scheduling philosophies implemented by teams depending upon which FBS sub-category they are in.

The 2011 team rankings are the 60th-best from the 120 computer rankings that Kenneth Massey had consolidated by 7 February 2012. Here are the 25 toughest schedules, with opponents' rank listed in chronological order:

Srt Comp Team Conf Gm_1 Gm_2 Gm_3 Gm_4 Gm_5 Gm_6 Gm_7 Gm_8 Gm_9 Gm_10 Gm_11 Gm_12 Gm_13
86.17 51 Iowa State B12 35 46 FCS 63 17 16 3 13 8 22 96 22
86.00 96 Kansas B12 FCS 92 17 36 16 3 8 22 13 63 51 22
82.58 29 Notre Dame ND 79 65 16 11 54 7 33 8 65 88 71 12
81.50 17 TCU B12 FCS 96 53 50 51 13 63 3 22 16 22 8
80.92 99 Mississippi SEC FCS 93 22 118 2 24 30 7 18 51 2 37
79.17 8 Oklahoma B12 93 FCS 16 63 22 96 29 51 13 22 3 17
77.67 16 Kansas State B12 FCS 54 94 8 96 51 22 63 3 17 13 22
77.58 37 Florida SEC 91 24 57 75 2 51 10 18 22 66 FCS 28
77.33 3 Oklahoma State B12 FCS 73 66 22 96 51 17 16 22 63 8 13
77.17 13 Baylor B12 50 FCS 101 22 17 22 51 96 8 16 63 3
77.17 22 Texas B12 70 116 99 3 22 8 13 96 63 51 17 16
77.08 7 Arkansas SEC FCS 101 2 35 24 30 75 99 35 10 37 2
76.67 24 Nebraska B10 22 64 47 FCS 12 52 67 11 16 27 91 46
76.50 24 Texas A&M SEC 46 37 50 FCS 7 99 2 30 37 2 FCS 22
76.42 22 West Virginia B12 66 FCS 103 13 22 63 16 17 3 8 51 96
76.33 73 Arizona P12 38 3 FCS 5 87 7 47 12 64 99 42 55
75.75 75 Kentucky SEC 56 93 78 37 10 37 7 18 22 51 FCS 57
75.42 87 Oregon State P12 FCS 12 64 73 88 33 42 47 55 7 44 5
75.25 30 Auburn SEC 26 37 101 2 7 99 51 24 105 18 FCS 2
74.17 2 Alabama SEC 11 78 7 118 99 22 57 37 2 24 FCS 30
73.83 10 South Carolina SEC 51 85 109 22 75 18 2 37 57 7 FCS 26
73.83 63 Texas Tech B12 FCS FCS 116 51 8 22 17 16 22 96 3 13
73.50 22 Missouri SEC FCS 18 55 10 84 51 2 75 37 57 80 24
72.92 2 LSU SEC 94 47 113 30 FCS 37 10 24 2 37 99 7
71.92 64 UCLA P12 92 24 14 87 99 44 42 55 73 88 12 7
Non-conference opponents' ranks are italicized and FCS opponents contribute zero to the average.
See the full list.

If you noticed that all the teams in the top 25 overall SOS are from one of the "BCS" conferences ("big 6" plus Notre Dame) you are starting to get a feel for how hard it is for a non-Big 6 conference team to overcome the effect of its conference schedule on its overall SOS.

Here are the 25 toughest non-conference schedules (opponents ranks listed by best-to-worst rank):

Srt Comp Team Conf Opp_1 Opp_2 Opp_3 Opp_4 Opp_5 Opp_6
85.75 94 North Texas SBC 2 14 16 FCS
83.75 22 Southern Miss CUSA 7 24 56 78
83.25 7 Boise State MW 16 22 33 96
83.00 101 UL Monroe SBC 7 13 30 118
81.67 64 UCLA P12 14 24 92
80.25 50 SMU CUSA 13 17 24 FCS
71.75 96 Miami-Ohio MAC 7 29 52 FCS
71.25 53 Virginia ACC 17 27 46 FCS
69.67 73 Arizona P12 3 38 FCS
69.00 78 Western Kentucky SBC 2 22 75 FCS
69.00 93 UTEP CUSA 8 12 99 105
69.00 118 Florida Atlantic SBC 2 18 79 FCS
68.50 11 Michigan B10 2 29 70 FCS
68.33 87 Oregon State P12 12 33 FCS
66.50 16 Michigan State B10 7 29 91 107
66.33 46 Louisiana Tech WAC 14 24 53 56 92 113
65.75 27 Penn State B10 47 53 58 79
64.75 54 Miami-Florida ACC 16 29 71 FCS
63.17 113 Idaho WAC 2 33 50 70 91 FCS
63.00 26 Clemson ACC 10 30 83 FCS
62.25 FCS Massachusetts MAC 11 51 77 112
62.00 47 Washington P12 2 62 FCS
61.60 80 Syracuse BigE 12 22 67 91 FCS
60.50 24 Nebraska B10 22 47 64 FCS
59.00 85 East Carolina CUSA 10 50 79 FCS
See the full list.

To demonstrate the impact of scheduling for the non-Big 6 conferences, I dropped the six worst opponents' ranks from the caclulation. There's still only one non-Big 6 team in the resulting top 25, only because three of SMU's top six opponents are top-25 non-conference teams. Few of the 24 Big-6 teams have even one non-conference opponent amongst their six toughest games.

2012 'Intended' Schedule Strength

NonConf
Rank 		NonConf
Value 		Team Conf All Gms
Value 		All Gms
Rank 		— Top½
Rank 		Top½
Value 		— Opp_1 Opp_2 Opp_3 Opp_4 Opp_5 Opp_6 Opp_7
94 35.50 Mississippi SEC 80.92 5   1 112.500   2 2 7 18 22 24
93 35.75 Auburn SEC 75.25 19   2 111.833   2 2 7 18 24 26
35 56.33 Iowa State B12 86.17 1   2 111.833   3 8 13 16 17 22
80 40.67 Kansas B12 86.00 2   2 111.833   3 8 13 16 17 22
110 30.00 Texas B12 77.17 10   2 111.833   3 8 13 16 17 22
124 3.00 Texas Tech B12 73.83 21   2 111.833   3 8 13 16 17 22
117 27.00 West Virginia B12 76.42 15   2 111.833   3 8 13 16 17 22
56 49.00 TCU B12 81.50 4   8 111.000   3 8 13 16 22 22
101 34.00 Kansas State B12 77.67 7   9 110.833   3 8 13 17 22 22
5 82.58 Notre Dame ND 82.58 3   10 110.500   7 8 11 12 16 33
105 33.00 Baylor B12 77.17 10   11 110.333   3 8 16 17 22 22
76 42.67 Oklahoma B12 79.17 6   12 109.500   3 13 16 17 22 22
78 42.00 Alabama SEC 74.17 20   13 109.000   2 7 11 22 24 30
90 37.00 Oklahoma State B12 77.33 9   14 108.667   8 13 16 17 22 22
88 38.50 Texas A&M SEC 76.50 14   15 108.333   2 2 7 22 30 37
47 51.00 Arkansas SEC 77.08 12   16 107.833   2 2 10 24 30 35
59 47.50 Florida SEC 77.58 8   17 107.667   2 10 18 22 24 28
10 69.67 Arizona P12 76.33 16   18 107.167   3 5 7 12 38 42
108 30.25 LSU SEC 72.92 24   19 106.667   2 7 10 24 30 37
87 38.75 South Carolina SEC 73.83 21   20 106.333   2 7 18 22 26 37
23 62.00 Washington P12 71.17 28   20 106.333   2 5 7 12 42 44
122 6.25 Mississippi State SEC 60.75 57   22 104.667   2 2 7 24 30 57
7 80.25 SMU CUSA 62.17 53   23 104.167   13 14 17 22 24 35
119 23.50 Tennessee SEC 70.17 32   24 104.000   2 10 18 22 37 37
16 66.50 Michigan State B10 70.92 30   25 103.500   7 11 12 24 29 46
NonConf
Rank 		NonConf
Value 		Team Conf All Gms
Value 		All Gms
Rank 		— Top½
Rank 		Top½
Value 		— Opp_1 Opp_2 Opp_3 Opp_4 Opp_5 Opp_6 Opp_7
90 37.00 Kentucky SEC 75.75 17   26 103.167   7 10 18 22 37 37
25 60.50 Nebraska B10 76.67 13   27 102.667   11 12 16 22 27 46
79 41.75 Ohio State B10 70.33 31   27 102.667   11 12 16 24 27 44
11 69.00 UTEP CUSA 64.67 43   29 101.500   8 12 14 22 35 50
83 39.00 Missouri SEC 73.50 23   30 101.333   2 10 18 24 37 51
15 68.33 Oregon State P12 75.42 18   31 101.167   5 7 12 33 42 44
6 81.67 UCLA P12 71.92 25   31 101.167   7 12 14 24 42 44
67 45.00 California P12 71.08 29   33 97.500   5 7 12 42 47 52
66 45.25 Iowa B10 64.00 47   33 97.500   11 16 24 27 36 51
115 27.75 Minnesota B10 67.83 37   33 97.500   11 12 16 24 46 56
121 13.33 Colorado P12 64.33 46   36 97.000   5 7 12 42 47 55
14 68.50 Michigan B10 71.42 27   37 96.833   2 16 24 29 46 52
29 57.67 Southern California P12 71.83 26   38 96.000   5 7 29 42 44 47
114 28.00 Vanderbilt SEC 63.67 49   38 96.000   10 18 22 30 37 57
83 39.00 Northwestern B10 64.42 45   40 95.833   11 16 24 27 46 51
63 47.25 Purdue B10 65.17 41   41 95.500   11 12 27 29 46 52
73 43.25 Duke ACC 68.67 34   42 95.333   7 21 26 28 46 50
99 34.67 Washington State P12 64.92 42   42 95.333   5 7 33 42 44 47
31 57.33 Arizona State P12 65.25 40   44 94.833   5 12 22 42 44 56
21 63.00 Clemson ACC 62.00 56   45 94.000   10 21 28 30 46 51
19 64.75 Miami-Florida ACC 68.50 35   46 93.333   16 21 28 29 46 50
118 25.50 Georgia SEC 60.08 58   47 92.333   10 22 30 37 46 51
49 50.75 UAB CUSA 55.17 67   48 91.833   10 14 22 35 52 66
72 43.50 Boston College ACC 64.50 44   49 91.500   21 26 28 29 46 51
44 52.25 Georgia Tech ACC 59.50 60   49 91.500   18 21 26 33 50 53
NonConf
Rank 		NonConf
Value 		Team Conf All Gms
Value 		All Gms
Rank 		— Top½
Rank 		Top½
Value 		— Opp_1 Opp_2 Opp_3 Opp_4 Opp_5 Opp_6 Opp_7
45 52.00 Stanford P12 63.50 50   49 91.500   5 12 29 44 47 64
24 61.60 Syracuse BigE 66.92 38   49 91.500   12 22 29 35 47 56
49 50.75 Illinois B10 63.83 48   53 91.167   11 12 27 46 52 55
9 71.25 Virginia ACC 65.75 39   54 90.500   17 21 27 46 46 50
120 22.00 Indiana B10 62.25 52   55 90.167   12 16 27 46 52 56
100 34.33 Oregon P12 59.67 59   56 89.667   7 12 44 47 47 55
30 57.50 Marshall CUSA 56.00 65   57 89.000   14 22 22 35 58 65
74 43.20 Pittsburgh BigE 58.00 62   58 88.833   21 29 29 35 47 56
32 57.25 Maryland ACC 68.00 36   59 88.500   22 26 28 46 47 50
1 85.75 North Texas SBC 48.58 88   60 87.833   2 14 16 47 66 78
77 42.25 Rice CUSA 54.50 70   61 86.500   14 22 35 46 50 64
59 47.50 Virginia Tech ACC 62.08 55   62 86.333   26 28 29 46 50 53
18 65.75 Penn State B10 69.08 33   63 86.000   12 24 46 47 52 53
59 47.50 Wake Forest ACC 57.58 63   64 85.833   26 28 29 50 51 51
110 30.00 Wisconsin B10 56.42 64   65 85.000   16 24 27 52 56 65
26 59.00 East Carolina CUSA 51.08 79   66 84.833   10 14 22 50 66 79
4 83.00 UL Monroe SBC 50.92 81   66 84.833   7 13 30 47 66 78
26 59.00 Fresno State MW 53.75 72   68 84.667   5 7 35 62 63 70
46 51.25 Hawaii MW 47.00 90   69 83.833   7 12 33 62 63 70
34 57.00 UCF CUSA 54.25 71   69 83.833   22 22 35 50 52 66
37 55.00 Louisville BigE 62.17 53   71 83.667   22 29 35 47 50 65
39 54.40 South Florida BigE 63.17 51   72 83.500   28 29 35 47 54 56
62 47.33 Utah P12 58.17 61   73 82.500   12 33 44 47 55 64
94 35.50 Florida State ACC 52.33 75   74 81.667   21 26 37 51 54 71
70 44.00 Cincinnati BigE 55.33 66   75 81.333   21 35 38 47 56 65
NonConf
Rank 		NonConf
Value 		Team Conf All Gms
Value 		All Gms
Rank 		— Top½
Rank 		Top½
Value 		— Opp_1 Opp_2 Opp_3 Opp_4 Opp_5 Opp_6 Opp_7
52 50.50 Wyoming MW 46.75 93   75 81.333   7 22 38 62 63 70
3 83.25 Boise State MW 50.50 83   77 80.667   16 22 33 62 63 70
112 29.00 North Carolina State ACC 53.58 73   78 80.333   26 28 50 53 54 57
40 54.25 Tulsa CUSA 49.25 87   79 79.667   7 14 50 51 66 84
96 35.40 Rutgers BigE 52.25 76   80 79.167   7 29 47 56 65 71
20 63.17 Idaho WAC 46.92 91   81 79.000   2 33 46 50 70 75
108 30.25 North Carolina ACC 51.83 77   82 78.167   21 46 51 53 54 56
2 83.75 Southern Miss CUSA 53.25 74   82 78.167   7 24 50 56 66 78
104 33.20 Connecticut BigE 54.83 68   84 77.833   29 35 47 51 56 65
97 35.00 Temple BigE 54.73 69   84 77.833   27 29 35 56 65 71
63 47.25 Eastern Michigan MAC 51.00 80   86 77.667   16 36 38 58 65 71
54 49.75 Tulane CUSA 50.33 84   87 77.500   14 35 35 50 66 85
42 53.75 Buffalo MAC 50.58 82   88 77.333   18 36 38 58 65 71
53 50.00 BYU Ind 50.00 85   88 77.333   7 29 42 46 75 87
28 58.50 Central Michigan MAC 47.83 89   88 77.333   16 36 38 46 71 79
11 69.00 Western Kentucky SBC 45.58 95   91 76.667   2 22 47 66 75 78
65 46.50 Ball State MAC 49.67 86   92 75.000   26 36 38 58 71 71
36 55.67 San Jose State WAC 41.25 105   93 74.667   7 33 46 62 75 79
22 62.25 Massachusetts MAC 46.75 93   94 74.333   11 36 51 58 71 77
17 66.33 Louisiana Tech WAC 42.92 98   95 73.000   14 24 53 56 75 90
8 71.75 Miami-Ohio MAC 41.75 103   96 71.667   7 29 52 58 83 91
58 47.83 Army Ind 51.67 78   97 71.500   35 36 47 62 70 71
11 69.00 Florida Atlantic SBC 42.42 100   97 71.500   2 18 66 78 78 79
102 33.75 Nevada MW 42.00 102   99 71.000   7 44 62 70 70 71
43 52.50 Utah State WAC 38.42 115   100 70.333   12 33 42 46 90 105
NonConf
Rank 		NonConf
Value 		Team Conf All Gms
Value 		All Gms
Rank 		— Top½
Rank 		Top½
Value 		— Opp_1 Opp_2 Opp_3 Opp_4 Opp_5 Opp_6 Opp_7
55 49.17 New Mexico State WAC 39.25 111   101 69.667   30 33 46 58 75 90
90 37.00 New Mexico MW 43.00 97   102 69.571   7 22 63 63 70 70 93
81 40.00 UNLV MW 46.85 92   103 68.857   7 46 62 63 70 70 75
40 54.25 UL Lafayette SBC 38.83 113   104 68.833   3 37 47 78 78 94
47 51.00 Bowling Green MAC 39.50 110   105 68.667   21 37 38 58 91 93
57 48.33 Texas State WAC 40.50 108   106 68.333   14 46 63 63 75 79
32 57.25 Arkansas State SBC 38.50 114   107 67.500   5 24 66 78 78 94
75 42.75 Houston CUSA 43.58 96   108 67.333   35 46 50 64 66 85
103 33.25 San Diego State MW 42.25 101   109 67.167   7 47 63 70 70 90
83 39.00 Akron MAC 42.67 99   110 66.500   36 38 57 58 78 84
113 28.25 Memphis CUSA 40.58 107   111 66.000   22 47 50 66 84 85
49 50.75 Toledo MAC 41.25 105   112 64.667   29 36 70 71 73 83
38 54.50 Troy SBC 41.42 104   113 64.500   37 47 57 66 78 78
115 27.75 Colorado State MW 40.00 109   114 62.667   7 62 70 70 75 90
67 45.00 Air Force MW 37.75 116   115 62.000   11 62 63 70 79 93
71 43.75 Middle Tenn State SBC 35.33 119   116 61.667   37 46 47 78 78 94
89 37.75 Western Michigan MAC 39.08 112   117 61.500   36 38 56 77 83 91
86 38.80 South Alabama SBC 35.77 118   118 58.429   37 47 51 66 78 93 94
107 31.42 Navy Ind 33.08 120   119 57.333   27 29 70 85 90 105
81 40.00 Kent State MAC 36.75 117   120 56.167   35 58 71 75 83 91
106 32.00 Northern Illinois MAC 32.00 121   121 54.167   38 46 71 83 91 96
97 35.00 Florida Intl SBC 31.67 122   122 53.167   47 56 66 78 84 100
69 44.25 Ohio MAC 30.75 123   123 49.833   27 66 83 91 91 93
123 5.50 Texas-San Antonio WAC 19.08 124   124 38.167   46 75 90 92 105 113