This "surprise" factor combines the scoring and rank difference for games in which the worse-ranked team wins against the better-ranked team.
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Unranked (non-FBS) teams are arbitrarily assigned a rank of one more than the worst-ranked FBS team.
| Date | Factor | Game |
| 8 Sep | 36.75 | #4 Oklahoma St 38 #53 Arizona 59 |
| 8 Sep | 7.17 | #98 Louisiana-Monroe 34 #12 Arkansas 31 |
| 8 Sep | 3.27 | #15 Wisconsin 7 #64 Oregon St 10 |
| 8 Sep | 2.50 | #14 Nebraska 30 #49 UCLA 36 |
| 1 Sep | 2.03 | #104 Texas St-San Marcos 30 #62 Houston 13 |
| 8 Sep | 1.38 | #93 Maryland 36 #55 Temple 27 |
| 1 Sep | 1.21 | #125 Youngstown St 31 #78 Pittsburgh 17 |
| 7 Sep | 1.12 | #33 Utah 20 #70 Utah St 27 |
| 8 Sep | 0.85 | #41 North Carolina 27 #76 Wake Forest 28 |
| 8 Sep | 0.53 | #125 North Dakota St 22 #99 Colorado St 7 |
| 8 Sep | 0.52 | #46 Illinois 14 #52 Arizona St 45 |
| 8 Sep | 0.50 | #125 Illinois St 31 #107 Eastern Michigan 14 |
| 8 Sep | 0.36 | #50 Vanderbilt 13 #59 Northwestern 23 |
| 30 Aug | 0.21 | #125 Eastern Washington 20 #117 Idaho 3 |
| 8 Sep | 0.20 | #125 Sacramento St 30 #104 Colorado 28 |
| 8 Sep | 0.15 | #46 Iowa St 9 #40 Iowa 6 |
| 8 Sep | 0.15 | #108 Rice 25 #94 Kansas 24 |
| 8 Sep | 0.12 | #48 South Florida 32 #43 Nevada 31 |
| 8 Sep | 0.09 | #125 Northern Arizona 17 #115 UNLV 14 |
| 8 Sep | 0.08 | #27 Florida 20 #25 Texas A&M 17 |
| 30 Aug | 0.05 | #125 McNeese St 27 #119 Middle Tennessee St 21 |
| 1 Sep | 0.03 | #125 Tennessee-Martin 20 #121 Memphis 17 |
| 8 Sep | 0.03 | #60 North Carolina St 10 #58 Connecticut 7 |