This "surprise" factor combines the scoring and rank difference for games in which the worse-ranked team wins against the better-ranked team.
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Unranked (non-FBS) teams are arbitrarily assigned a rank of one more than the worst-ranked FBS team.
| Date | Factor | Game |
| 17 Nov | 24.00 | #6 Kansas St 24 #42 Baylor 52 |
| 6 Oct | 13.33 | #18 UCLA 17 #78 California 43 |
| 8 Sep | 9.84 | #31 Kent St 14 #92 Kentucky 47 |
| 24 Nov | 6.38 | #24 Rutgers 6 #75 Pittsburgh 27 |
| 6 Oct | 3.71 | #14 Florida St 16 #66 North Carolina St 17 |
| 10 Nov | 3.00 | #8 Texas A&M 29 #2 Alabama 24 |
| 24 Nov | 2.79 | #28 Mississippi St 24 #54 Mississippi 41 |
| 27 Sep | 2.75 | #8 Stanford 13 #30 Washington 17 |
| 23 Nov | 2.40 | #30 Washington 28 #102 Washington St 31 |
| 1 Sep | 2.06 | #73 Ohio U. 24 #36 Penn State 14 |
| 6 Oct | 1.78 | #9 Georgia 7 #13 South Carolina 35 |
| 6 Oct | 1.71 | #46 West Virginia 48 #17 Texas 45 |
| 24 Nov | 1.65 | #90 Connecticut 23 #34 Louisville 20 |
| 10 Nov | 1.59 | #34 Louisville 26 #52 Syracuse 45 |
| 1 Sep | 1.48 | #77 Iowa 18 #31 Northern Illinois 17 |
| 1 Sep | 1.33 | #125 Youngstown St 31 #75 Pittsburgh 17 |
| 8 Sep | 1.33 | #36 Penn State 16 #84 Virginia 17 |
| 27 Oct | 1.31 | #13 Oregon St 17 #30 Washington 20 |
| 22 Nov | 1.29 | #39 TCU 20 #17 Texas 13 |
| 27 Oct | 1.25 | #4 Florida 9 #9 Georgia 17 |
| 29 Sep | 1.11 | #73 Western Kentucky 26 #47 Arkansas St 13 |
| 24 Nov | 1.10 | #41 Tulsa 27 #86 SMU 35 |
| 3 Nov | 1.09 | #84 Virginia 31 #66 North Carolina St 6 |
| 3 Nov | 1.05 | #83 Air Force 21 #112 Army 41 |
| 17 Nov | 1.00 | #8 Stanford 17 #4 Oregon 14 |
| 30 Aug | 0.95 | #125 McNeese St 27 #64 Middle Tennessee St 21 |
| 8 Sep | 0.95 | #19 Oklahoma St 38 #25 Arizona 59 |
| 10 Nov | 0.85 | #104 Florida Atlantic 37 #73 Western Kentucky 28 |
| 5 Oct | 0.81 | #26 Utah St 3 #47 Brigham Young 6 |
| 23 Nov | 0.80 | #45 Arizona St 41 #25 Arizona 34 |
| 13 Oct | 0.67 | #77 Iowa 19 #46 Michigan St 16 |
| 8 Sep | 0.62 | #50 North Carolina 27 #81 Wake Forest 28 |
| 3 Nov | 0.61 | #41 Tulsa 15 #66 Arkansas 19 |
| 16 Oct | 0.60 | #60 Louisiana-Lafayette 23 #96 North Texas 30 |
| 10 Nov | 0.60 | #63 Navy 31 #82 Troy 41 |
| 27 Oct | 0.58 | #31 Kent St 35 #24 Rutgers 23 |
| 10 Nov | 0.58 | #53 Miami FL 40 #84 Virginia 41 |
| 10 Nov | 0.54 | #59 Georgia Tech 68 #50 North Carolina 50 |
| 29 Sep | 0.50 | #66 Minnesota 13 #77 Iowa 31 |
| 6 Oct | 0.48 | #29 Northwestern 28 #36 Penn State 39 |
| 27 Oct | 0.44 | #46 Michigan St 16 #32 Wisconsin 13 |
| 15 Sep | 0.41 | #66 Virginia Tech 17 #75 Pittsburgh 35 |
| 26 Oct | 0.41 | #73 Nevada 31 #83 Air Force 48 |
| 31 Aug | 0.39 | #33 Boise St 13 #46 Michigan St 17 |
| 3 Nov | 0.39 | #46 San Diego St 21 #33 Boise St 19 |
| 27 Oct | 0.38 | #73 Ohio U. 20 #101 Miami OH 23 |
| 8 Sep | 0.36 | #125 North Dakota St 22 #106 Colorado St 7 |
| 22 Sep | 0.36 | #83 Air Force 35 #113 UNLV 38 |
| 15 Sep | 0.35 | #60 Louisiana-Monroe 28 #81 Auburn 31 |
| 29 Sep | 0.35 | #125 Stony Brook 23 #112 Army 3 |
| 13 Oct | 0.35 | #86 SMU 26 #116 Tulane 27 |
| 15 Sep | 0.34 | #47 Brigham Young 21 #63 Utah 24 |
| 20 Oct | 0.34 | #50 North Carolina 30 #67 Duke 33 |
| 8 Sep | 0.32 | #125 Illinois St 31 #113 Eastern Michigan 14 |
| 15 Sep | 0.32 | #125 Cal Poly SLO 24 #95 Wyoming 22 |
| 29 Sep | 0.31 | #97 Houston 35 #88 Rice 14 |
| 24 Nov | 0.31 | #113 UNLV 10 #120 Hawai'i 48 |
| 22 Sep | 0.27 | #52 Syracuse 10 #66 Minnesota 17 |
| 27 Oct | 0.27 | #82 Troy 27 #104 Florida Atlantic 34 |
| 29 Sep | 0.25 | #64 Middle Tennessee St 49 #59 Georgia Tech 28 |
| 6 Oct | 0.25 | #88 Rice 10 #110 Memphis 14 |
| 24 Nov | 0.24 | #42 Baylor 52 #34 Texas Tech 45 |
| 15 Sep | 0.23 | #26 Utah St 14 #32 Wisconsin 16 |
| 3 Nov | 0.22 | #107 New Mexico 7 #113 UNLV 35 |
| 1 Sep | 0.21 | #99 Western Michigan 7 #106 Illinois 24 |
| 8 Sep | 0.20 | #15 Nebraska 30 #18 UCLA 36 |
| 20 Oct | 0.20 | #40 Cincinnati 23 #48 Toledo 29 |
| 9 Nov | 0.20 | #75 Pittsburgh 17 #90 Connecticut 24 |
| 10 Nov | 0.20 | #93 Marshall 31 #112 Alabama-Birmingham 38 |
| 1 Sep | 0.19 | #103 Texas St-San Marcos 30 #97 Houston 13 |
| 22 Sep | 0.18 | #91 Central Michigan 32 #77 Iowa 31 |
| 3 Nov | 0.18 | #99 Western Michigan 42 #91 Central Michigan 31 |
| 8 Sep | 0.15 | #84 South Florida 32 #73 Nevada 31 |
| 1 Sep | 0.14 | #125 Tennessee-Martin 20 #110 Memphis 17 |
| 17 Nov | 0.14 | #113 Eastern Michigan 29 #99 Western Michigan 23 |
| 30 Aug | 0.13 | #125 Eastern Washington 20 #120 Idaho 3 |
| 15 Sep | 0.13 | #45 Arizona St 20 #51 Missouri 24 |
| 22 Sep | 0.13 | #115 Colorado 35 #102 Washington St 34 |
| 20 Oct | 0.13 | #104 Florida Atlantic 34 #117 South Alabama 37 |
| 20 Oct | 0.13 | #9 LSU 24 #8 Texas A&M 19 |
| 24 Nov | 0.13 | #32 Wisconsin 21 #36 Penn State 24 |
| 3 Sep | 0.12 | #59 Georgia Tech 17 #66 Virginia Tech 20 |
| 8 Sep | 0.12 | #91 Maryland 36 #86 Temple 27 |
| 6 Oct | 0.12 | #81 Wake Forest 14 #91 Maryland 19 |
| 6 Oct | 0.12 | #103 Texas St-San Marcos 14 #107 New Mexico 35 |
| 27 Oct | 0.12 | #91 Maryland 17 #102 Boston College 20 |
| 23 Nov | 0.12 | #46 West Virginia 31 #41 Iowa St 24 |
| 8 Sep | 0.11 | #125 Northern Arizona 17 #113 UNLV 14 |
| 22 Sep | 0.10 | #90 Connecticut 24 #99 Western Michigan 30 |
| 29 Sep | 0.10 | #42 Baylor 63 #46 West Virginia 70 |
| 6 Oct | 0.10 | #102 Boston College 31 #112 Army 34 |
| 6 Oct | 0.10 | #41 Iowa St 37 #39 TCU 23 |
| 8 Sep | 0.09 | #125 Sacramento St 30 #115 Colorado 28 |
| 27 Oct | 0.09 | #23 Southern Cal 36 #25 Arizona 39 |
| 22 Sep | 0.08 | #38 Fresno St 26 #41 Tulsa 27 |
| 13 Oct | 0.08 | #91 Maryland 27 #84 Virginia 20 |
| 27 Oct | 0.07 | #112 Alabama-Birmingham 45 #116 Tulane 55 |
| 17 Nov | 0.07 | #86 SMU 14 #88 Rice 36 |
| 22 Sep | 0.06 | #93 Marshall 54 #88 Rice 51 |
| 29 Sep | 0.06 | #51 Missouri 21 #48 Central Florida 16 |
| 6 Oct | 0.05 | #84 South Florida 28 #86 Temple 37 |
| 3 Nov | 0.04 | #77 Iowa 21 #80 Indiana 24 |
| 31 Aug | 0.03 | #67 Tennessee 35 #66 North Carolina St 21 |
| 6 Oct | 0.03 | #96 North Texas 21 #97 Houston 44 |
| 20 Oct | 0.02 | #112 Army 38 #113 Eastern Michigan 48 |
| 17 Nov | 0.02 | #52 Syracuse 31 #51 Missouri 27 |