This "surprise" factor combines the scoring and rank difference for games in which the worse-ranked team wins against the better-ranked team.
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Unranked (non-FBS) teams are arbitrarily assigned a rank of one more than the worst-ranked FBS team.
| Date | Factor | Game |
| 17 Nov | 15.33 | #6 Kansas St 24 #29 Baylor 52 |
| 6 Oct | 11.40 | #20 UCLA 17 #77 California 43 |
| 24 Dec | 7.58 | #31 Fresno St 10 #78 SMU 43 |
| 8 Sep | 7.37 | #38 Kent St 14 #94 Kentucky 47 |
| 27 Sep | 5.00 | #7 Stanford 13 #42 Washington 17 |
| 6 Oct | 3.00 | #16 Florida St 16 #64 North Carolina St 17 |
| 1 Dec | 2.94 | #17 Nebraska 31 #27 Wisconsin 70 |
| 1 Sep | 2.90 | #76 Ohio U. 24 #31 Penn State 14 |
| 10 Nov | 2.50 | #7 Texas A&M 29 #2 Alabama 24 |
| 1 Sep | 2.30 | #76 Iowa 18 #23 Northern Illinois 17 |
| 1 Sep | 2.17 | #125 Youngstown St 31 #60 Pittsburgh 17 |
| 27 Oct | 2.00 | #14 Oregon St 17 #42 Washington 20 |
| 8 Sep | 1.77 | #31 Penn State 16 #86 Virginia 17 |
| 8 Sep | 1.50 | #22 Oklahoma St 38 #33 Arizona 59 |
| 27 Oct | 1.38 | #29 Baylor 21 #49 Iowa St 35 |
| 3 Nov | 1.38 | #86 Virginia 31 #64 North Carolina St 6 |
| 29 Sep | 1.35 | #72 Western Kentucky 26 #43 Arkansas St 13 |
| 27 Dec | 1.35 | #29 Baylor 49 #20 UCLA 26 |
| 24 Nov | 1.29 | #42 Rutgers 6 #60 Pittsburgh 27 |
| 27 Oct | 1.25 | #4 Florida 9 #9 Georgia 17 |
| 24 Nov | 1.21 | #84 Connecticut 23 #38 Louisville 20 |
| 23 Nov | 1.17 | #42 Washington 28 #91 Washington St 31 |
| 28 Dec | 1.07 | #76 Ohio 45 #60 Louisiana-Monroe 14 |
| 29 Dec | 1.05 | #37 West Virginia 14 #50 Syracuse 38 |
| 10 Nov | 0.95 | #38 Louisville 26 #50 Syracuse 45 |
| 10 Nov | 0.94 | #106 Florida Atlantic 37 #72 Western Kentucky 28 |
| 3 Nov | 0.91 | #86 Air Force 21 #112 Army 41 |
| 6 Oct | 0.88 | #49 Iowa St 37 #34 TCU 23 |
| 13 Oct | 0.81 | #76 Iowa 19 #42 Michigan St 16 |
| 5 Oct | 0.80 | #25 Utah St 3 #45 Brigham Young 6 |
| 30 Aug | 0.79 | #125 McNeese St 27 #70 Middle Tennessee St 21 |
| 10 Nov | 0.75 | #65 Georgia Tech 68 #52 North Carolina 50 |
| 17 Nov | 0.75 | #7 Stanford 17 #4 Oregon 14 |
| 24 Nov | 0.71 | #38 Mississippi St 24 #47 Mississippi 41 |
| 13 Oct | 0.69 | #34 TCU 49 #29 Baylor 21 |
| 6 Oct | 0.68 | #37 West Virginia 48 #22 Texas 45 |
| 16 Oct | 0.67 | #58 Louisiana-Lafayette 23 #97 North Texas 30 |
| 10 Nov | 0.66 | #64 Navy 31 #85 Troy 41 |
| 8 Sep | 0.65 | #52 North Carolina 27 #86 Wake Forest 28 |
| 10 Nov | 0.62 | #53 Miami FL 40 #86 Virginia 41 |
| 3 Nov | 0.61 | #45 San Diego St 21 #28 Boise St 19 |
| 24 Nov | 0.59 | #49 Tulsa 27 #78 SMU 35 |
| 22 Sep | 0.58 | #31 Fresno St 26 #49 Tulsa 27 |
| 29 Dec | 0.57 | #22 Texas 31 #14 Oregon St 27 |
| 27 Oct | 0.56 | #42 Michigan St 16 #27 Wisconsin 13 |
| 22 Nov | 0.55 | #34 TCU 20 #22 Texas 13 |
| 13 Oct | 0.54 | #37 West Virginia 14 #41 Texas Tech 49 |
| 28 Dec | 0.52 | #42 Rutgers 10 #64 Virginia Tech 13 |
| 31 Aug | 0.50 | #28 Boise St 13 #42 Michigan St 17 |
| 13 Oct | 0.50 | #78 SMU 26 #117 Tulane 27 |
| 27 Oct | 0.50 | #22 Southern Cal 36 #33 Arizona 39 |
| 26 Oct | 0.49 | #74 Nevada 31 #86 Air Force 48 |
| 8 Sep | 0.48 | #125 North Dakota St 22 #101 Colorado St 7 |
| 22 Sep | 0.44 | #50 Syracuse 10 #72 Minnesota 17 |
| 6 Oct | 0.44 | #9 Georgia 7 #10 South Carolina 35 |
| 15 Sep | 0.42 | #45 Brigham Young 21 #64 Utah 24 |
| 20 Oct | 0.42 | #36 Cincinnati 23 #51 Toledo 29 |
| 20 Oct | 0.40 | #52 North Carolina 30 #73 Duke 33 |
| 9 Nov | 0.40 | #60 Pittsburgh 17 #84 Connecticut 24 |
| 15 Sep | 0.39 | #38 Arizona St 20 #53 Missouri 24 |
| 3 Nov | 0.39 | #49 Tulsa 15 #68 Arkansas 19 |
| 29 Sep | 0.36 | #93 Houston 35 #83 Rice 14 |
| 15 Sep | 0.35 | #60 Louisiana-Monroe 28 #81 Auburn 31 |
| 22 Sep | 0.35 | #86 Air Force 35 #116 UNLV 38 |
| 29 Sep | 0.35 | #125 Stony Brook 23 #112 Army 3 |
| 27 Oct | 0.34 | #76 Ohio U. 20 #102 Miami OH 23 |
| 1 Sep | 0.32 | #103 Texas St-San Marcos 30 #93 Houston 13 |
| 1 Dec | 0.32 | #22 Oklahoma St 34 #29 Baylor 41 |
| 15 Sep | 0.30 | #125 Cal Poly SLO 24 #96 Wyoming 22 |
| 8 Sep | 0.29 | #125 Illinois St 31 #114 Eastern Michigan 14 |
| 20 Oct | 0.29 | #9 LSU 24 #7 Texas A&M 19 |
| 29 Sep | 0.28 | #29 Baylor 63 #37 West Virginia 70 |
| 6 Oct | 0.28 | #83 Rice 10 #106 Memphis 14 |
| 1 Sep | 0.27 | #99 Western Michigan 7 #108 Illinois 24 |
| 22 Sep | 0.26 | #115 Colorado 35 #91 Washington St 34 |
| 3 Nov | 0.26 | #109 New Mexico 7 #116 UNLV 35 |
| 27 Oct | 0.25 | #85 Troy 27 #106 Florida Atlantic 34 |
| 21 Dec | 0.25 | #48 Ball St 17 #52 Central Florida 38 |
| 26 Dec | 0.24 | #72 Western Kentucky 21 #89 Central Michigan 24 |
| 29 Dec | 0.24 | #34 TCU 16 #42 Michigan St 17 |
| 8 Sep | 0.23 | #91 South Florida 32 #74 Nevada 31 |
| 29 Sep | 0.23 | #70 Middle Tennessee St 49 #65 Georgia Tech 28 |
| 3 Nov | 0.22 | #99 Western Michigan 42 #89 Central Michigan 31 |
| 6 Oct | 0.21 | #28 Northwestern 28 #31 Penn State 39 |
| 20 Oct | 0.21 | #41 Texas Tech 56 #34 TCU 53 |
| 10 Nov | 0.20 | #94 Marshall 31 #113 Alabama-Birmingham 38 |
| 17 Nov | 0.19 | #78 SMU 14 #83 Rice 36 |
| 1 Sep | 0.18 | #125 Tennessee-Martin 20 #106 Memphis 17 |
| 8 Sep | 0.18 | #17 Nebraska 30 #20 UCLA 36 |
| 22 Sep | 0.18 | #84 Connecticut 24 #99 Western Michigan 30 |
| 27 Oct | 0.18 | #66 Purdue 28 #72 Minnesota 44 |
| 22 Sep | 0.17 | #89 Central Michigan 32 #76 Iowa 31 |
| 29 Sep | 0.17 | #72 Minnesota 13 #76 Iowa 31 |
| 6 Oct | 0.17 | #103 Texas St-San Marcos 14 #109 New Mexico 35 |
| 17 Nov | 0.17 | #42 Rutgers 10 #36 Cincinnati 3 |
| 17 Nov | 0.15 | #114 Eastern Michigan 29 #99 Western Michigan 23 |
| 23 Nov | 0.15 | #38 Arizona St 41 #33 Arizona 34 |
| 24 Nov | 0.15 | #27 Wisconsin 21 #31 Penn State 24 |
| 30 Aug | 0.13 | #125 Eastern Washington 20 #120 Idaho 3 |
| 22 Sep | 0.13 | #94 Marshall 54 #83 Rice 51 |
| 13 Oct | 0.13 | #25 Utah St 49 #24 San Jose State 27 |
| 27 Oct | 0.13 | #93 Maryland 17 #105 Boston College 20 |
| 20 Oct | 0.12 | #106 Florida Atlantic 34 #119 South Alabama 37 |
| 3 Nov | 0.11 | #76 Iowa 21 #84 Indiana 24 |
| 8 Sep | 0.09 | #125 Sacramento St 30 #115 Colorado 28 |
| 8 Sep | 0.09 | #93 Maryland 36 #89 Temple 27 |
| 8 Sep | 0.08 | #125 Northern Arizona 17 #116 UNLV 14 |
| 15 Sep | 0.08 | #25 Utah St 14 #27 Wisconsin 16 |
| 6 Oct | 0.08 | #86 Wake Forest 14 #93 Maryland 19 |
| 13 Oct | 0.08 | #93 Maryland 27 #86 Virginia 20 |
| 3 Nov | 0.08 | #84 Connecticut 6 #91 South Florida 13 |
| 6 Oct | 0.07 | #105 Boston College 31 #112 Army 34 |
| 27 Oct | 0.07 | #113 Alabama-Birmingham 45 #117 Tulane 55 |
| 13 Oct | 0.06 | #89 Temple 17 #84 Connecticut 14 |
| 26 Oct | 0.06 | #36 Cincinnati 31 #38 Louisville 34 |
| 20 Oct | 0.04 | #112 Army 38 #114 Eastern Michigan 48 |
| 29 Sep | 0.02 | #53 Missouri 21 #52 Central Florida 16 |
| 10 Nov | 0.01 | #122 Massachusetts 22 #121 Akron 14 |
| 17 Nov | 0.01 | #93 Houston 41 #94 Marshall 44 |