This "surprise" factor combines the scoring and rank difference for games in which the worse-ranked team wins against the better-ranked team.
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Unranked (non-FBS) teams are arbitrarily assigned a rank of one more than the worst-ranked FBS team.
| Date | Factor | Game |
| 27 Oct | 5.63 | #8 Oregon St 17 #53 Washington 20 |
| 27 Oct | 5.33 | #3 Florida 9 #19 Georgia 17 |
| 27 Oct | 4.94 | #59 Kent St 35 #17 Rutgers 23 |
| 27 Sep | 3.08 | #13 Stanford 13 #53 Washington 17 |
| 6 Oct | 3.00 | #36 UCLA 17 #63 California 43 |
| 8 Sep | 2.37 | #59 Kent St 14 #87 Kentucky 47 |
| 8 Sep | 2.09 | #32 Penn State 16 #99 Virginia 17 |
| 6 Oct | 1.93 | #15 Florida St 16 #44 North Carolina St 17 |
| 26 Oct | 1.20 | #60 Nevada 31 #84 Air Force 48 |
| 27 Oct | 1.17 | #46 Ohio U. 20 #100 Miami OH 23 |
| 1 Sep | 0.98 | #125 Youngstown St 31 #84 Pittsburgh 17 |
| 27 Oct | 0.90 | #20 Michigan 9 #29 Nebraska 23 |
| 1 Sep | 0.88 | #46 Ohio U. 24 #32 Penn State 14 |
| 15 Sep | 0.88 | #65 Virginia Tech 17 #84 Pittsburgh 35 |
| 15 Sep | 0.85 | #46 Louisiana-Monroe 28 #85 Auburn 31 |
| 15 Sep | 0.83 | #30 Arizona St 20 #55 Missouri 24 |
| 22 Sep | 0.81 | #103 Central Michigan 32 #57 Iowa 31 |
| 31 Aug | 0.77 | #26 Boise St 13 #46 Michigan St 17 |
| 27 Oct | 0.77 | #46 Michigan St 16 #26 Wisconsin 13 |
| 13 Oct | 0.68 | #53 Duke 20 #65 Virginia Tech 41 |
| 8 Sep | 0.67 | #46 North Carolina 27 #77 Wake Forest 28 |
| 27 Oct | 0.60 | #73 Temple 17 #84 Pittsburgh 47 |
| 27 Oct | 0.55 | #74 Troy 27 #115 Florida Atlantic 34 |
| 27 Oct | 0.51 | #72 Maryland 17 #109 Boston College 20 |
| 15 Sep | 0.50 | #48 Brigham Young 21 #72 Utah 24 |
| 27 Oct | 0.50 | #16 Southern Cal 36 #24 Arizona 39 |
| 30 Aug | 0.45 | #125 McNeese St 27 #86 Middle Tennessee St 21 |
| 1 Sep | 0.43 | #57 Iowa 18 #40 Northern Illinois 17 |
| 27 Oct | 0.43 | #63 California 27 #72 Utah 49 |
| 31 Aug | 0.41 | #53 Tennessee 35 #44 North Carolina St 21 |
| 23 Oct | 0.39 | #78 Arkansas St 50 #69 Louisiana-Lafayette 27 |
| 13 Oct | 0.35 | #83 SMU 26 #112 Tulane 27 |
| 8 Sep | 0.32 | #125 Illinois St 31 #113 Eastern Michigan 14 |
| 8 Sep | 0.32 | #79 South Florida 32 #60 Nevada 31 |
| 15 Sep | 0.32 | #95 Connecticut 24 #72 Maryland 21 |
| 29 Sep | 0.32 | #44 North Carolina St 37 #58 Miami FL 44 |
| 27 Oct | 0.32 | #63 Purdue 28 #73 Minnesota 44 |
| 16 Oct | 0.29 | #69 Louisiana-Lafayette 23 #89 North Texas 30 |
| 22 Sep | 0.27 | #84 Air Force 35 #107 UNLV 38 |
| 8 Sep | 0.24 | #29 Nebraska 30 #36 UCLA 36 |
| 13 Oct | 0.24 | #57 Iowa 19 #46 Michigan St 16 |
| 8 Sep | 0.23 | #125 North Dakota St 22 #112 Colorado St 7 |
| 15 Sep | 0.21 | #125 Cal Poly SLO 24 #103 Wyoming 22 |
| 29 Sep | 0.21 | #125 Stony Brook 23 #117 Army 3 |
| 27 Oct | 0.20 | #36 UCLA 45 #30 Arizona St 43 |
| 22 Sep | 0.19 | #115 Colorado 35 #97 Washington St 34 |
| 8 Sep | 0.17 | #125 Northern Arizona 17 #107 UNLV 14 |
| 5 Oct | 0.17 | #41 Utah St 3 #48 Brigham Young 6 |
| 6 Oct | 0.15 | #103 Rice 10 #118 Memphis 14 |
| 6 Oct | 0.15 | #23 West Virginia 48 #20 Texas 45 |
| 20 Oct | 0.15 | #46 North Carolina 30 #53 Duke 33 |
| 6 Oct | 0.14 | #31 Iowa St 37 #29 TCU 23 |
| 29 Sep | 0.12 | #26 Wisconsin 27 #29 Nebraska 30 |
| 6 Oct | 0.11 | #61 Vanderbilt 19 #55 Missouri 15 |
| 27 Oct | 0.11 | #106 Alabama-Birmingham 45 #112 Tulane 55 |
| 30 Aug | 0.10 | #125 Eastern Washington 20 #121 Idaho 3 |
| 1 Sep | 0.10 | #90 Texas St-San Marcos 30 #87 Houston 13 |
| 8 Sep | 0.09 | #125 Sacramento St 30 #115 Colorado 28 |
| 6 Oct | 0.07 | #109 Boston College 31 #117 Army 34 |
| 1 Sep | 0.06 | #125 Tennessee-Martin 20 #118 Memphis 17 |
| 8 Sep | 0.05 | #103 Rice 25 #98 Kansas 24 |
| 20 Oct | 0.05 | #63 San Diego St 39 #60 Nevada 38 |
| 27 Oct | 0.05 | #44 North Carolina St 35 #46 North Carolina 43 |
| 22 Sep | 0.04 | #70 Syracuse 10 #73 Minnesota 17 |
| 29 Sep | 0.04 | #86 Middle Tennessee St 49 #85 Georgia Tech 28 |
| 22 Sep | 0.02 | #95 Connecticut 24 #97 Western Michigan 30 |
| 20 Oct | 0.01 | #83 New Mexico 23 #84 Air Force 28 |