This "surprise" factor combines the scoring and rank difference for games in which the worse-ranked team wins against the better-ranked team.
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Unranked (non-FBS) teams are arbitrarily assigned a rank of one more than the worst-ranked FBS team.
| Date | Factor | Game |
| 27 Sep | 7.33 | #6 Stanford 13 #50 Washington 17 |
| 29 Sep | 3.43 | #105 Middle Tennessee St 49 #49 Georgia Tech 28 |
| 8 Sep | 1.80 | #20 Oklahoma St 38 #32 Arizona 59 |
| 15 Sep | 1.79 | #42 Virginia Tech 17 #67 Pittsburgh 35 |
| 1 Sep | 1.73 | #125 Youngstown St 31 #67 Pittsburgh 17 |
| 29 Sep | 0.67 | #54 Minnesota 13 #66 Iowa 31 |
| 29 Sep | 0.38 | #65 Ball St 43 #90 Kent St 45 |
| 29 Sep | 0.35 | #125 Stony Brook 23 #112 Army 3 |
| 8 Sep | 0.33 | #65 South Florida 32 #49 Nevada 31 |
| 22 Sep | 0.33 | #88 Central Michigan 32 #66 Iowa 31 |
| 8 Sep | 0.32 | #53 North Carolina 27 #70 Wake Forest 28 |
| 8 Sep | 0.31 | #125 North Dakota St 22 #108 Colorado St 7 |
| 15 Sep | 0.31 | #29 Arizona St 20 #38 Missouri 24 |
| 15 Sep | 0.30 | #125 Cal Poly SLO 24 #96 Wyoming 22 |
| 8 Sep | 0.29 | #125 Illinois St 31 #114 Eastern Michigan 14 |
| 8 Sep | 0.23 | #62 Penn State 16 #76 Virginia 17 |
| 15 Sep | 0.20 | #49 Brigham Young 21 #59 Utah 24 |
| 22 Sep | 0.20 | #93 Air Force 35 #112 UNLV 38 |
| 30 Aug | 0.19 | #125 McNeese St 27 #105 Middle Tennessee St 21 |
| 8 Sep | 0.16 | #25 Nebraska 30 #29 UCLA 36 |
| 22 Sep | 0.15 | #114 Colorado 35 #99 Washington St 34 |
| 30 Aug | 0.13 | #125 Eastern Washington 20 #120 Idaho 3 |
| 8 Sep | 0.12 | #125 Northern Arizona 17 #112 UNLV 14 |
| 8 Sep | 0.10 | #125 Sacramento St 30 #114 Colorado 28 |
| 1 Sep | 0.02 | #125 Tennessee-Martin 20 #122 Memphis 17 |
| 1 Sep | 0.02 | #66 Iowa 18 #65 Northern Illinois 17 |