NCAA Division 1A Football

Copyright 2004-2014, Paul Kislanko

Analysis Breaks down the computer ranknigs listed on Kenneth Massey's College Football Ratings Comparison page as ranked ballots using a variety of vote-counting methods.
Top 25 Borda Majority Consensus Pairwise Matrix Correlations Conference Ranks Weighted Violations Playoff Approval
David Wilson's Rankings List describes the rating systems in terms of their attributes.
The 2014 FBS Schedule
July 4, 2014: Schedule topology and games to look forward to.
Schedule Strengths
July 6, 2014: A last-year's rank-based strength of schedule metric.
Rank-Based Game Interest Update
July 12, 2014: A small tweak to the formula.
2014 Computer Rankings
July 26, 2014: First pre-season ratings published.
Ratings as Voters
August 17, 2014: Site updates to make analysis more accessable (and comprehensible?)
Meta-Rating Construction
September 5, 2014: "Composite" ratings compared
Committee "consensus"
September 9, 2014: A better committee "poll"
Metrics on the Directed Games Graph
October 17, 2014: You can be a computer, too.
Weighted Win Paths
November 2, 2014: A summary DGG metric as a quasi-rating.
Judging the Judges
December 5, 2014: A Playoff Epiphany - how they can't get it wrong.
Index to team and conference schedules
Consolidated Schedules and Results
This is a consolidated and indexed version of Dr. Peter Wolfe's schedules and scores pages.
D1 Football Championship Subdivision
Division 2
Division 3


Interdivisional Results with scoring analysis

Division 1 schedule by week
Interconference results for FBS Conferences
Division and Conference Affiliations
For all teams, based upon Dr. Wolfe's NCAA and NAIA Divisional and Conference Affiliations page.
College Football Data Warehouse
Where to go when you get old enough that your memory fails or you're too young to remember what happened before you were born.
Splits and situational stats - inside box scores
Boyd Nation's Iterative Strength Rating
Iterated Strength of Victory (ISR with SOV-based adjustments for each game)
Normalized Scoring Stats
Scoring data adjusted by opponents' strength

Directed Games Graph
These are not "ratings" per se, but count and make visible all of the "A beat B beat C beat ..." (A⇒) chains in the current games graph.
Second Order Winning Percentage
% of teams that the given team has a shorter or stronger A⇒... chain to other teams than the other way around.
    (All D1)
by the length and strength of the A⇒ paths to other teams.
    (All D1)

Teams' rankings by pathcount differences (1A)
    (All D1)
Summary by Weighted Win Paths (1A)
    (All D1)
Often people who are not familiar with the nature and limitations of statistical methods tend to expect too much of the rating system. Ratings provide merely a comparison of performances, no more and no less. The measurement of the performance of an individual is always made relative to the performance of his competitors and both the performance of the player and of his opponents are subject to much the same random fluctuations. The measurement of the rating of an individual might well be compared with the measurement of the position of a cork bobbing up and down on the surface of agitated water with a yard stick tied to a rope and which is swaying in the wind.
Arpad Elo in Chess Life, 1962
In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice; In practice, there is. — Chuck Reid

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