I have to give some credit to the committee powers-that-be, though. In my September 9, 2014 article I suggested that the committee would be better served by "approval voting" than the Borda-based system they were using. This year they are actually using a variation of that. From collegefootballplayoff.com:
While I still find some of their ultimate ranks a bit odd, I kind of approve of the method by which they construct their top 25.
- Each committee member will create a list of the 30 teams he or she believes to be the best in the country, in no particular order. Teams listed by three or more members will remain under consideration. At the conclusion of any round, other teams can be added to the group of teams under consideration by a vote of three or more members.
- Each member will list the best six teams, in no particular order. The six teams receiving the most votes will comprise the pool for the first ranking step. This is known as the “listing step.”
- In the first ranking step, each member will rank those six teams, one through six, with one being the best. The best team in each member’s ranking will receive one point; second-best, two points, etc. The members’ rankings will be added together and the three teams receiving the fewest points will become the top three seeds. The three teams that were not seeded will be held over for the next ranking step.
- Each member will list the six best remaining teams, in no particular order. The three teams receiving the most votes will be added to the three teams held over to comprise the next ranking step.
- Steps No. 3 and 4 will be repeated until 25 teams have been seeded. There will be seven rounds of voting; each round will consist of a “listing step” and a “ranking step.”
I still think computers do a better job of ranking teams if for no other reason than it is no harder for them to rank 130 than it is to rank 25. And I still think using more computers is better, just as having more human voters is better.
A few weeks ago I was having an email dialog with a member of a rankings-related discussion group about a particular team, and he wrote "The computer I like best has them #n in the predictor rating" and something about that phrase stuck. Today while I was trudging through what the NWS calls "wintry mix" in the grocery store parking lot I realized that what he'd done (pick the computer rating that he "likes best") was a hint that there's a better way to incorporate computer rankings into the human process.
If my observation that humans aren't very good at ranking the top 25 (or however many) teams is correct, the reason is that it is like a "fill in the blank" test. What if instead we made it a multiple choice exam by instead asking them to pick which of a number of computer rankings looks "most like" what they think they'd come up with?
So, give them this list and ask them to list one or more of the computer rankings they "like." I made it a top 20 just for presentation, it could list all teams, but really no one looks even as far as 20 down the list except us rating geeks. After all the humans have selected the lists they are comfortable with, use however many of those computer rankings there are using any method you like to select a "top however-many." (This list is based upon the 108 computer rankings after the games of 10 Novermber, week 11. All of the rankings will be different after week 12's games.)
- BUCK
- is the best rank for which 50%+1 of the computers have the team ranked at worst the rank
- MCON
- is the ordinal rank based upon the average of all the computer rankings
- ranking identifier
- The computer rankings are ordered from most to least like the Bucklin rank
Rate #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7 #8 #9 #10 #11 #12 #13 #14 #15 #16 #17 #18 #19 #20 BUCK Alabama Clemson Georgia Michigan ND Oklahoma LSU
OSUWV UCF Wash St PSU Florida MS St Kentucky Mizzou MCON Alabama Clemson Georgia Michigan ND Oklahoma LSU OSU WV PSU UCF Wash St Florida MS St Utah Washington Kentucky Texas Mizzou Iowa St WMV Alabama Clemson Georgia Michigan Oklahoma ND WV LSU OSU UCF Florida PSU Kentucky Wash St MS St Mizzou Utah St Cincinnati TAM Iowa St LAZ Alabama Clemson Georgia Michigan ND Oklahoma OSU WV LSU Wash St PSU Florida Utah Kentucky Utah St UCF Fresno St Texas Washington Cincinnati COF Alabama Clemson Georgia Michigan Oklahoma WV ND LSU OSU UCF Wash St PSU Utah St Florida Cincinnati Kentucky Fresno St MS St Iowa St Mizzou PAY Alabama Clemson Georgia Michigan ND Oklahoma LSU WV OSU UCF PSU Florida Utah St MS St Wash St Kentucky Cincinnati Mizzou Fresno St TAM LAB Alabama Clemson ND Georgia Michigan Oklahoma LSU OSU WV UCF Wash St PSU Cincinnati Texas Kentucky Florida Utah St Syracuse Boise Washington RT Alabama Clemson Georgia Michigan Oklahoma ND LSU PSU OSU WV UCF MS St Mizzou Florida Wash St TAM Utah Fresno St Utah St Kentucky ASH Alabama Clemson Georgia Michigan ND Oklahoma LSU WV OSU Wash St Florida Kentucky PSU UCF TAM Utah MS St Mizzou Syracuse S Car JTR Alabama Clemson Georgia Michigan ND Oklahoma OSU LSU WV UCF PSU Wash St Utah St Fresno St Cincinnati Florida Mizzou MS St Iowa St Syracuse RUD Alabama Georgia Clemson ND Michigan LSU WV Oklahoma Kentucky UCF OSU Florida Wash St Mizzou TAM MS St PSU Utah St Syracuse S Car ARG Alabama Clemson Georgia Michigan ND LSU OSU Oklahoma UCF WV Cincinnati MS St PSU Florida Wash St Fresno St Kentucky Utah St Washington UAB RWP Alabama Georgia Clemson Michigan ND LSU Oklahoma OSU WV UCF Wash St PSU Kentucky Florida Mizzou Iowa Washington Utah Fresno St Texas FAS Alabama Clemson ND Georgia Michigan Oklahoma UCF LSU OSU WV PSU Florida Wash St Utah St Cincinnati Kentucky MS St Syracuse Buffalo TAM KPK Alabama Clemson Georgia Michigan ND Oklahoma WV OSU LSU PSU UCF Wash St Utah Florida S Car Texas Iowa St Kentucky MSU Mizzou MTN Alabama Clemson Georgia Michigan Oklahoma ND WV OSU LSU Wash St PSU Florida Utah Kentucky UCF Iowa St MS St Texas Mizzou TAM ACU Alabama Clemson Georgia Michigan ND Oklahoma LSU OSU WV Wash St PSU UCF Texas Utah Washington Iowa St Kentucky Mizzou Florida Syracuse DII Alabama Clemson Georgia ND Michigan LSU UCF Oklahoma WV OSU Florida Kentucky Mizzou Wash St MS St TAM Syracuse PSU S Car Auburn FMG Alabama Clemson Georgia Michigan ND Oklahoma Wash St LSU OSU WV Utah PSU Florida UCF Kentucky Washington Stanford Iowa St Cincinnati Iowa MVG Clemson Georgia Alabama ND Michigan Oklahoma LSU WV UCF Wash St OSU Florida Kentucky Utah PSU Washington Syracuse MS St Cincinnati Texas HAT Alabama Georgia Clemson ND Oklahoma Michigan WV LSU OSU UCF Wash St Florida Kentucky PSU Texas Utah Cincinnati Army Iowa St Mizzou JNK Alabama Clemson Georgia ND Michigan Oklahoma LSU OSU WV UCF Florida PSU Wash St Cincinnati Kentucky Army Boise MS St Syracuse Utah SEL Alabama Georgia Clemson Michigan ND LSU Florida Kentucky WV Oklahoma OSU MS St TAM Mizzou S Car Wash St UCF PSU Auburn TEN KEE Alabama Clemson Georgia Oklahoma Michigan ND WV LSU Wash St OSU TAM Texas Kentucky Iowa St Mizzou UCF MS St Florida Utah Cincinnati DOL Alabama Georgia Clemson ND LSU Michigan Oklahoma OSU WV Wash St UCF Kentucky Florida PSU Iowa St Texas Mizzou TAM Cincinnati Utah St Rate #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7 #8 #9 #10 #11 #12 #13 #14 #15 #16 #17 #18 #19 #20 BIH Alabama Clemson ND Georgia Michigan LSU Oklahoma UCF WV OSU Florida Kentucky Wash St PSU Cincinnati Mizzou Buffalo TAM MS St Army HEN Clemson Alabama Michigan ND Georgia Oklahoma WV OSU Wash St LSU UCF PSU Utah Syracuse Florida Texas Washington Cincinnati Utah St Stanford ENG Alabama Clemson Georgia Michigan ND WV OSU LSU Wash St Oklahoma Utah PSU UCF Florida Kentucky Washington Stanford Iowa St Texas Cincinnati AND Alabama Georgia ND Clemson Michigan Oklahoma OSU LSU WV UCF Florida Wash St Kentucky PSU S Car Cincinnati Texas MS St Iowa St Boise PGH Alabama ND Clemson Georgia Michigan LSU Oklahoma WV OSU Wash St Florida UCF Kentucky PSU Mizzou S Car MS St Utah Syracuse TAM DWI Alabama Clemson Georgia Michigan ND Oklahoma WV LSU Wash St OSU UCF Florida Utah Iowa St PSU Syracuse Kentucky Washington Texas Mizzou SGR Alabama Georgia Clemson Michigan Oklahoma ND LSU UCF WV OSU Fresno St PSU Wash St Utah St Iowa Mizzou Cincinnati Iowa St Kentucky Texas HKB Alabama Clemson Georgia Oklahoma Michigan WV LSU ND OSU Florida UCF Mizzou Kentucky TAM MS St PSU Iowa St Utah St Wash St S Car HOW Alabama Clemson Georgia ND Michigan LSU Oklahoma OSU Wash St Cincinnati PSU Florida Fresno St Kentucky TAM UCF Syracuse Utah St WV Boise MAS Alabama Clemson Georgia Michigan ND LSU Oklahoma OSU WV UCF Wash St Florida Mizzou PSU Kentucky TAM MS St Syracuse Auburn Iowa St KLK Alabama Clemson Georgia Michigan WV ND Oklahoma LSU OSU Wash St PSU Kentucky Utah Iowa Florida Washington TAM Iowa St Fresno St Texas WLK Alabama Georgia Clemson Michigan Oklahoma WV ND LSU Wash St Mizzou OSU UCF PSU Florida Fresno St MS St Iowa Utah Kentucky Utah St ABC Clemson ND Alabama Georgia Michigan Oklahoma LSU WV OSU Wash St UCF Florida Kentucky Syracuse PSU Utah TAM S Car Mizzou Stanford RTH Alabama Georgia Clemson LSU ND Michigan Florida Kentucky MS St Mizzou TAM UCF WV S Car Oklahoma Auburn OSU TEN Wash St PSU HNL Alabama Georgia Clemson Michigan Oklahoma ND WV LSU Wash St OSU Iowa Utah Fresno St Mizzou PSU Washington Iowa St UCF Kentucky Stanford ISR Clemson Alabama ND Georgia Michigan Oklahoma WV Wash St LSU OSU UCF Utah PSU Syracuse Florida Kentucky Texas Stanford Iowa St Cincinnati SMS Alabama Clemson Michigan Georgia Oklahoma ND OSU WV LSU Wash St PSU Utah MS St Washington Iowa St Texas Mizzou Iowa Fresno St Florida KRA Alabama ND Clemson Georgia Michigan UCF LSU Oklahoma OSU Florida WV Kentucky Wash St PSU Buffalo Syracuse MS St Cincinnati TAM Mizzou WOB Alabama ND Clemson Georgia Michigan LSU UCF Oklahoma WV OSU Florida Wash St Kentucky Syracuse PSU Cincinnati Buffalo MS St Army TAM WIL Alabama ND Georgia Clemson LSU Michigan Florida Kentucky UCF MS St
TAMWV
S CarMizzou Oklahoma OSU TEN Auburn Wash St PSU MGS Alabama Clemson ND Georgia Michigan Oklahoma OSU Wash St UCF WV LSU Boise PSU Cincinnati Utah Utah St Fresno St Florida Army Washington BOW Alabama ND Clemson Georgia Michigan Oklahoma OSU WV Wash St PSU LSU Utah MSU Washington UCF Pitt Iowa St Texas Florida NW BSS Alabama Clemson ND Oklahoma Georgia LSU Michigan Wash St OSU WV UCF Utah Texas Washington Cincinnati Syracuse Kentucky PSU Florida Boise HUF Alabama Clemson Georgia Michigan Oklahoma LSU ND WV UCF Utah St PSU Fresno St Cincinnati MS St OSU TAM Wash St Florida Mizzou App. St. MAR Alabama Clemson Georgia Michigan ND Oklahoma Utah St WV OSU Fresno St Wash St LSU UCF MS St App. St. Cincinnati Iowa St Utah Buffalo Boise Rate #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7 #8 #9 #10 #11 #12 #13 #14 #15 #16 #17 #18 #19 #20 PPP Alabama Clemson Georgia ND Michigan Oklahoma LSU OSU Wash St WV PSU UCF Florida Kentucky Army Texas Utah Iowa St Stanford Washington COL Alabama ND Clemson Georgia Michigan Oklahoma LSU OSU UCF WV Wash St Florida Cincinnati PSU Army Buffalo Boise Kentucky Syracuse Utah St CGV Clemson Alabama ND Michigan Oklahoma OSU Georgia WV Wash St UCF LSU Utah St PSU Washington Fresno St Syracuse Boise Utah BC Iowa St BIL Alabama ND Clemson Georgia Michigan LSU Oklahoma OSU Wash St WV UCF Florida PSU Boise MS St Texas Utah St Washington Cincinnati Iowa St WWP ND Georgia Alabama Michigan Clemson Wash St Oklahoma LSU OSU Washington Utah WV Kentucky Florida PSU Texas NW Stanford UCF MSU BBT Alabama Clemson Georgia Michigan ND UCF Oklahoma Utah St LSU OSU Fresno St WV Wash St PSU Cincinnati Syracuse App. St. Utah Mizzou Washington WOL Alabama Clemson ND Georgia Michigan LSU Oklahoma OSU WV UCF Wash St Florida Kentucky Syracuse Army PSU Buffalo Cincinnati Utah St TAM LOG Alabama Clemson Georgia Michigan Oklahoma WV Fresno St ND LSU OSU MS St Utah St PSU Mizzou App. St. TAM UCF Iowa Iowa St Cincinnati KNT Alabama Clemson ND Georgia Michigan Oklahoma LSU OSU Wash St WV PSU UCF Boise Florida Cincinnati Texas Army Kentucky Buffalo Washington YCM Alabama Clemson Michigan Georgia ND UCF WV Oklahoma LSU OSU Utah St Fresno St Wash St PSU Cincinnati Mizzou Boise Syracuse MS St Utah RTP Clemson Alabama Georgia ND Oklahoma Michigan LSU OSU WV Wash St UCF PSU Syracuse Texas Washington Kentucky Florida Utah St MS St Iowa St WEL Alabama Clemson ND Georgia Michigan Oklahoma UCF LSU OSU WV Wash St Cincinnati Florida PSU Army Boise Buffalo Syracuse Kentucky UAB BWE Alabama Clemson Georgia Michigan WV Oklahoma LSU Mizzou MS St ND OSU Florida Utah St PSU TAM Fresno St UCF Iowa St Kentucky Auburn SOR Alabama Georgia Clemson ND Oklahoma LSU WV Michigan Florida Kentucky OSU UCF Mizzou Texas Iowa St S Car MS St Wash St Utah Washington MCK Alabama ND Clemson Georgia Michigan LSU Oklahoma WV OSU UCF Wash St Kentucky Florida Syracuse MS St PSU Texas Auburn TAM Iowa St KEL Alabama Clemson Georgia Michigan ND Oklahoma UCF OSU LSU Wash St WV Cincinnati Fresno St UAB Utah St PSU Boise Army Buffalo App. St. LSD Clemson Alabama ND Georgia Michigan Oklahoma LSU OSU WV Wash St UCF Cincinnati Syracuse PSU Florida UAB Buffalo Utah St Army Boise DP Alabama Clemson Georgia Michigan WV Oklahoma Fresno St OSU LSU Mizzou Iowa MS St PSU ND Iowa St Wash St TAM Utah Florida Washington MGN Alabama Clemson ND Michigan Oklahoma Georgia UCF LSU OSU WV Wash St Boise PSU Utah St Army Cincinnati Fresno St Texas UAB Iowa St JNG Alabama Clemson ND Michigan Georgia Oklahoma Wash St UCF LSU WV OSU Utah St Syracuse Iowa St Florida Texas PSU Cincinnati Buffalo UAB LAW Alabama Clemson Michigan Georgia MS St Fresno St LSU OSU WV PSU Iowa ND Florida Mizzou Oklahoma Kentucky Washington Utah Cincinnati Auburn BCM Alabama Michigan Georgia Clemson WV Oklahoma LSU ND MS St Mizzou Utah St PSU OSU Iowa Fresno St Florida TAM Iowa St Wash St Kentucky JJK Alabama ND Clemson Georgia Michigan UCF Oklahoma OSU LSU WV Wash St Cincinnati Buffalo Utah St UAB Army PSU Boise Florida Syracuse BMC Alabama Clemson Georgia Michigan WV Oklahoma LSU MS St Mizzou OSU PSU Utah St Florida TAM Fresno St ND Kentucky Iowa Iowa St S Car MJS Alabama Clemson ND Georgia Michigan Oklahoma UCF OSU LSU WV Wash St Cincinnati Buffalo Boise Army Utah St UAB PSU Florida Syracuse Rate #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7 #8 #9 #10 #11 #12 #13 #14 #15 #16 #17 #18 #19 #20 TPR Alabama Georgia Clemson Michigan LSU ND Oklahoma MS St TAM WV UCF OSU Mizzou Auburn Florida Kentucky Syracuse Washington Iowa PSU RME ND Alabama Clemson Michigan UCF Georgia LSU Mizzou Florida Oklahoma S Car MS St Kentucky OSU Auburn TAM Buffalo WV PSU Cincinnati GLD Alabama Clemson Georgia ND Michigan Oklahoma LSU UCF WV OSU PSU Wash St Boise Army Georgia So Cincinnati Utah St Buffalo Fresno St UAB TRP Alabama Clemson Michigan Georgia Oklahoma OSU PSU WV ND MS St LSU Fresno St TAM Washington Utah St UCF Mizzou Auburn Iowa Utah MDS Alabama Clemson Georgia ND Michigan Oklahoma UCF OSU PSU LSU WV App. St. Boise Wash St Utah St Fresno St Army Cincinnati Troy UAB DES Alabama Clemson ND Michigan Georgia Oklahoma UCF Wash St OSU WV LSU PSU Washington Florida Texas Iowa St Utah St BC Kentucky MS St AWS Alabama ND Clemson Michigan Georgia Oklahoma LSU PSU OSU MSU Florida Texas Boise Kentucky Iowa MS St Wash St Utah Army Pitt CTW Alabama Clemson Georgia Oklahoma ND Michigan OSU UCF PSU Wash St LSU Iowa St WV Utah Washington Fresno St MS St MSU BC Utah St SAG Alabama Clemson Michigan Georgia Oklahoma OSU WV PSU ND Washington LSU MS St Iowa Utah Wash St TAM Fresno St Texas Auburn Mizzou TFG Alabama Clemson Michigan Georgia OSU Fresno St Oklahoma PSU ND Iowa LSU WV Washington App. St. MS St UCF Utah UAB Boise Auburn MOR Alabama Clemson Georgia Michigan Oklahoma WV OSU LSU Utah St MS St Iowa St ND Texas Tech Mizzou TAM Texas Fresno St Auburn Boise PSU GBE Alabama Clemson ND Georgia Michigan Oklahoma LSU OSU WV UCF Wash St Boise Army PSU Cincinnati Florida Utah Syracuse Texas Buffalo DOK Alabama Clemson Michigan Georgia Oklahoma OSU WV ND PSU MS St LSU Washington Fresno St Utah Wash St Auburn TAM Iowa Utah St UCF KEN Clemson Alabama Michigan Georgia ND Oklahoma UCF OSU LSU Wash St Boise WV Cincinnati UAB PSU Utah St Utah Buffalo Syracuse Washington DEZ Alabama Georgia Michigan Clemson OSU LSU TAM Oklahoma Boise Auburn Iowa St MS St PSU Kentucky MSU Florida App. St. ND Iowa Fresno St LMC Alabama Clemson Georgia Michigan Oklahoma LSU Mizzou MS St OSU Florida PSU Kentucky ND TAM WV Utah St Iowa Fresno St Auburn Texas DCI Alabama Clemson Georgia OSU ND Michigan Oklahoma LSU MS St Wash St Iowa St WV PSU Utah Pitt NW Texas UCF MSU Syracuse SFX Alabama Clemson Michigan Oklahoma Georgia OSU ND
WVLSU
PSUMS St
WashingtonUCF
Utah
Texas
Fresno StIowa St
MizzouWash St
Utah St
Iowa
BC
OK StFPI Alabama Clemson Georgia Michigan Oklahoma OSU ND PSU WV Washington MS St LSU Utah TAM Iowa Mizzou Auburn Wash St Fresno St Texas FEI Alabama Georgia Clemson Oklahoma Michigan ND UCF Washington OSU MSU LSU WV PSU Iowa Wash St Mizzou Fresno St Iowa St Cincinnati MS St PFZ Alabama Clemson Michigan Georgia MS St Fresno St OSU ND WV Utah Cincinnati Oklahoma Miami LSU Wash St Boise UCF Utah St Iowa TAM KLN Alabama Clemson Georgia Michigan OSU ND Oklahoma LSU Washington PSU WV MS St Wash St Auburn Texas Utah Iowa Stanford MSU Iowa St CSL ND Clemson Michigan Alabama OSU UCF Oklahoma Georgia Wash St WV Cincinnati UAB Utah St Syracuse Boise LSU Buffalo Troy PSU Army BRN Alabama Clemson Michigan Oklahoma Georgia WV OSU PSU ND Iowa St LSU MS St Texas Tech Texas Mizzou Iowa Utah MSU Utah St Wash St KAM Alabama Clemson Georgia Oklahoma Michigan OSU PSU ND WV LSU Iowa Utah Texas Washington UCF Auburn MS St WIS TAM OK St Rate #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7 #8 #9 #10 #11 #12 #13 #14 #15 #16 #17 #18 #19 #20 BAS Alabama Clemson Georgia Oklahoma Michigan OSU PSU WV Washington MS St LSU UCF ND Iowa Mizzou Auburn OK St Utah Stanford Iowa St MRK Clemson Alabama ND Georgia Michigan UCF Oklahoma LSU WV Buffalo Cincinnati Wash St OSU Army Utah St PSU UAB Syracuse Boise Fresno St PIG Alabama Clemson Michigan Georgia ND OSU Oklahoma LSU MS St Iowa St WV Mizzou MSU Texas PSU Pitt Wash St ASU Syracuse Texas Tech PIR Alabama Clemson Michigan Georgia ND OSU Oklahoma Washington MS St LSU Mizzou WV PSU MSU BC Auburn Utah Iowa Iowa St GT S@P Alabama Clemson Georgia Michigan Oklahoma ND UCF OSU Fresno St Utah St Washington WV PSU App. St. Utah Wash St WIS LSU MS St Auburn RBA Alabama Clemson Georgia Michigan MS St Iowa OSU LSU Oklahoma PSU Utah Washington WV ND UCF Iowa St Fresno St Auburn Mizzou WIS BDF Alabama Clemson Michigan Georgia Oklahoma WV ND OSU Iowa St MS St Mizzou Texas LSU Pitt Wash St Utah Utah St Texas Tech Iowa Fresno St NUT Alabama Oklahoma Clemson UCF ND Georgia LSU OSU Texas NW Iowa Auburn Iowa St MS St Michigan PSU GT WV OK St Washington ATC Alabama Clemson ND Michigan UCF Oklahoma Georgia Boise OSU Wash St Buffalo Iowa St LSU Utah St NIU Troy Army App. St. UAB Cincinnati RTB Alabama ND Clemson TAM Michigan OSU Georgia Kentucky WV PSU UCF Florida S Car Mizzou LSU TEN MS St Auburn NW Ole Miss
There are some nice features about this approach. Since the human is selecting the computer ranking(s) she is in most agreement with, there can be no criticism of her subjective rankings and there's no need to ask her to list the criteria by which she made her choices. By choosing the computer ranking(s) she most agrees with, we can know what the criteria are because there is an objective implementation of them. And since every voter can select more than one computer ranking, when she gets to the "I don't know which of x and y should be #n, she can just find lists that match her 1st through n-1th and pick one that has x before y and one with y before x as nth. There may even be one that matches 1 to n and has x and y tied.
And of course if they don't like any of the rankings they could put in a "write-in" ranking of their own. Anybody who could deduce that none of the 108 computer rankings wasn't quite right probably should be considered a computer rating.
© Copyright 2018, Paul Kislanko
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