The 2010 Schedule

© Copyright 2010, Paul Kislanko

Season APL CI #O #OO N3 N4
2006 2.49   Total Pairs 677 2570 3461 313
    46.2 Percent 9.6 36.6 49.3 4.5
             
2007 2.48   Total Pairs 675 2548 3532 266
    45.9 Percent 9.6 36.3 50.3 3.8
             
2008 2.46   Total Pairs 678 2686 3562 214
    47.1 Percent 9.5 37.6 49.9 3.0
             
2009 2.48   Total Pairs 675 2631 3597 237
    46.3 Percent 9.5 36.9 50.4 3.3
             
2010 2.43   Total Pairs 678 2789 3579 94
    48.6 Percent 9.5 39.1 50.1 1.3
A funny thing happened on the way to 2010. Even though the NCAA still counts non-FBS games every year for bowl-eligibility purposes and the number of team-pairs that play is the same as 2008, the FBS games graph "tightened up" considerably. There are still four teams that play two games against non-FBS teams: Syracuse, Virginia, Ball State and Arizona State) but there were seven last year, and 38 teams play no non-FBS teams.

Syracuse can be forgiven - nonconference scheduling is more difficult for Big East teams than anyone else. Virginia's FCS opponents are in-state teams with traditional matchups in multiple sports, so the Cavaliers get a bit of a pass, too. Ball State's situation (not all of these results are by choice) is regrettable - there's not enough diversity in MAC vs non-MAC interconference matchups to give up two opportunities to address that.

But Arizona State only has three non-conference slots to fill. To use even one of them to play a non-FBS team is a misdemeanor, and to use two ought to be a felony.

Last year only 24 of 120 teams were connected by no worse than an opponents' opponent relationship, this year there are 50. (See FBS Schedule Connectivity - 2010 for the list of teams ordered by how much their schedule contributes to that of the field.)

Although 2010's schedule is an improvement by this measure, there's still a long way to go. With over six times as many team-pairs the measures for the 2010 D1 Baseball season were:
CI APL   #O #OO N3 N4
  2.34 #Pairs: 3352 23295 18325 178
59.02   %Pairs: 7.42 51.59 40.59 0.39

"Us" vs "Them"

Fans of teams in non-BCS AQ conferences' data points for "we'd have a better record if we got to play those AQ teams at home" arguments include 31 games (plus eight "neutral site" matchups) this year that may or may not make that case:
2-Sep Southern California at Hawaii
2-Sep Minnesota at Middle Tenn St
2-Sep Pittsburgh at Utah
3-Sep Arizona at Toledo
4-Sep Syracuse at Akron
4-Sep Washington at BYU
4-Sep Cincinnati at Fresno St
4-Sep Texas at Rice
4-Sep Wisconsin at UNLV
10-Sep West Virginia at Marshall
11-Sep North Carolina St at UCF
11-Sep Rutgers at Florida Intl
11-Sep Texas Tech at New Mexico
11-Sep Mississippi at Tulane
17-Sep California at Nevada
17-Sep Kansas at Southern Miss
18-Sep Northwestern at Rice
18-Sep Washington St at SMU
18-Sep Baylor at TCU
18-Sep Connecticut at Temple
18-Sep Indiana at Western Kentucky
25-Sep Oregon St at Boise St
25-Sep Baylor at Rice
2-Oct Louisville at Arkansas St
8-Oct Oklahoma St at UL Lafayette
9-Oct Mississippi St at Houston
16-Oct North Carolina St at East Carolina
30-Oct Duke at Navy
6-Nov Tennessee at Memphis
27-Nov Kansas St at North Texas
3-Dec Illinois at Fresno St

Overall there are 117 games scheduled between teams from AQ conferences and the rest of FBS.
ACC BigE B10 B12 ND P10 SEC vAQ CUSA Ind MAC MW SBC WAC v¬AQ FCS
ACC 6 1 2 1 2 7 19 4 4 3 1 3 1 16 13
BigE 6 1 1 1 2 4 15 3 1 4 2 5 1 16 9
B10 1 1 2 3 3 2 12 2 0 13 1 4 2 22 10
B12 2 1 2 0 5 2 12 7 0 3 7 6 5 28 8
ND 1 1 3 0 2 0 7 1 2 1 1 0 0 5 0
P10 2 2 3 5 2 1 15 2 0 1 3 0 3 9 7
SEC 7 4 2 2 0 1 16 8 0 3 0 8 2 21 10
CUSA 4 3 2 7 1 2 8 27 3 4 2 4 2 15 6
Ind 4 1 0 0 2 0 0 7 3 4 2 2 2 13 2
MAC 3 4 13 3 1 1 3 28 4 4 2 2 2 14 10
MW 1 2 1 7 1 3 0 15 2 2 2 0 12 18 4
SBC 3 5 4 6 0 0 8 26 4 2 2 0 0 8 2
WAC 1 1 2 5 0 3 2 14 2 2 2 12 0 18 8

Once again: the ACC leads in number of games vs FCS teams and leads the AQ conferences in non-conference games vs teams from other AQ conferences; also the most games between teams from the same two conferences are the Big Ten vs MAC (I know there are good reasons, but guys this is getting pretty boring.)

You'll notice that the SEC only has 47 non-conference games in the matrix. There are two teams that are "unclassified" as they begin new programs that aren't far enough along for even "transitional" status. One of them will play Alabama on November 20th. Yes, that Alabama. The defending FBS Champions will play a game against Georgia State, who's not even NAIA. I think it won't even count against the limits on practice time.