What a Difference ?

D1 Schedules

The ink was hardly dry pixels were hardly pasted in my first analysis of 2020's mess when the Pac 12 and Mountain West announced they were playing after all. Eventually the Pac 12 will have a 7-game schedule, but the seventh one is vs TBA for everybody so I only have six games to work with.

The addition of the Mountain West to the field has a rather large impact. Although it is a mostly conference-only schedule Air Force (Army and Navy), Boise State and San Diego State (both BYU) have nonconference games so the entire conference is connected to the rest of the field. The pathlength required to connect the teams outside of the Big Ten, Pac 12 and SEC increases from five to six and that changes the average number of paths used for the three disconnected islands.

There are 21 team-pairs connected by a pathlength of 6, all involving Mountain West teams and only one pair does not include a Big 12 team.

Virginia: { New Mexico }
Baylor: { Fresno State; Hawaii; Nevada; UNLV }
Oklahoma: { Fresno State; Hawaii; Nevada; UNLV }
TCU: { Fresno State; Hawaii; Nevada; UNLV }
Texas Tech: { Fresno State; Hawaii; Nevada; UNLV }
West Virginia: { Fresno State; Hawaii; Nevada; UNLV }
New Mexico: { Virginia }
Fresno State: { Baylor; Oklahoma; TCU; Texas Tech; West Virginia }
Hawaii: { Baylor; Oklahoma; TCU; Texas Tech; West Virginia }
Nevada: { Baylor; Oklahoma; TCU; Texas Tech; West Virginia }
UNLV: { Baylor; Oklahoma; TCU; Texas Tech; West Virginia }

The Pac 12 schedule results in only eight "round-robins" because each team only has one scheduled non-divisional opponent. This will change if all the TBAs turn into non-divisional opponents.

Size Members 6 { Arizona State (0-0); Colorado (0-0); Southern California (0-0); UCLA (0-0); Utah (0-0); Arizona (0-0) } 6 { California (0-0); Oregon (0-0); Oregon State (0-0); Stanford (0-0); Washington (0-0); Washington State (0-0) } 2 { Utah (0-0); Oregon State (0-0) } 2 { Southern California (0-0); Washington State (0-0) } 2 { Washington (0-0); Arizona (0-0) } 2 { Oregon (0-0); UCLA (0-0) } 2 { Colorado (0-0); Stanford (0-0) } 2 { Arizona State (0-0); California (0-0) }

When we count the number of paths connecting team pairs for the disconnected islands we get

[6] Team _16 _17 _18 _19 _20 _21 _22 _23 _24 _25 _26 _27 _28 _29 _40 _41 _42 _43 _44 _45 _46 _47 _48 _49 _50 _51 _52 _53 _54 _55 _56 _57 _58 _59 _60 _61 _62 _63 _64 _65 _16 Indiana 19106 18986 19055 18966 18986 18966 19055 18434 18484 18434 18478 18478 18358 18358 _17 Maryland 18986 19106 19055 19055 18966 18986 18966 18484 18434 18358 18478 18358 18478 18434 _18 Michigan 19055 19055 19106 18986 18966 18966 18986 18478 18478 18358 18484 18434 18434 18358 _19 Michigan State 18966 19055 18986 19106 18986 19055 18966 18478 18358 18434 18434 18358 18484 18478 _20 Ohio State 18986 18966 18966 18986 19106 19055 19055 18358 18434 18484 18358 18478 18434 18478 _21 Penn State 18966 18986 18966 19055 19055 19106 18986 18434 18358 18478 18358 18434 18478 18484 _22 Rutgers 19055 18966 18986 18966 19055 18986 19106 18358 18478 18478 18434 18484 18358 18434 _23 Illinois 18434 18484 18478 18478 18358 18434 18358 19106 18986 18966 19055 18966 19055 18986 _24 Iowa 18484 18434 18478 18358 18434 18358 18478 18986 19106 18986 19055 19055 18966 18966 _25 Minnesota 18434 18358 18358 18434 18484 18478 18478 18966 18986 19106 18966 19055 18986 19055 _26 Nebraska 18478 18478 18484 18434 18358 18358 18434 19055 19055 18966 19106 18986 18986 18966 _27 Northwestern 18478 18358 18434 18358 18478 18434 18484 18966 19055 19055 18986 19106 18966 18986 _28 Purdue 18358 18478 18434 18484 18434 18478 18358 19055 18966 18986 18986 18966 19106 19055 _29 Wisconsin 18358 18434 18358 18478 18478 18484 18434 18986 18966 19055 18966 18986 19055 19106 [6] Team _16 _17 _18 _19 _20 _21 _22 _23 _24 _25 _26 _27 _28 _29 _40 _41 _42 _43 _44 _45 _46 _47 _48 _49 _50 _51 _52 _53 _54 _55 _56 _57 _58 _59 _60 _61 _62 _63 _64 _65 _40 California 4256 4224 4224 4224 4224 4224 3552 3520 3552 3552 3552 3552 _41 Oregon 4224 4256 4224 4224 4224 4224 3552 3552 3552 3552 3520 3552 _42 Oregon State 4224 4224 4256 4224 4224 4224 3552 3552 3552 3552 3552 3520 _43 Stanford 4224 4224 4224 4256 4224 4224 3552 3552 3520 3552 3552 3552 _44 Washington 4224 4224 4224 4224 4256 4224 3520 3552 3552 3552 3552 3552 _45 Washington State 4224 4224 4224 4224 4224 4256 3552 3552 3552 3520 3552 3552 _46 Arizona 3552 3552 3552 3552 3520 3552 4256 4224 4224 4224 4224 4224 _47 Arizona State 3520 3552 3552 3552 3552 3552 4224 4256 4224 4224 4224 4224 _48 Colorado 3552 3552 3552 3520 3552 3552 4224 4224 4256 4224 4224 4224 _49 Southern California 3552 3552 3552 3552 3552 3520 4224 4224 4224 4256 4224 4224 _50 UCLA 3552 3520 3552 3552 3552 3552 4224 4224 4224 4224 4256 4224 _51 Utah 3552 3552 3520 3552 3552 3552 4224 4224 4224 4224 4224 4256 [6] Team _16 _17 _18 _19 _20 _21 _22 _23 _24 _25 _26 _27 _28 _29 _40 _41 _42 _43 _44 _45 _46 _47 _48 _49 _50 _51 _52 _53 _54 _55 _56 _57 _58 _59 _60 _61 _62 _63 _64 _65 _52 Florida 71610 71256 71304 71372 71559 71372 71559 71600 71456 71532 71270 71308 71532 71270 _53 Georgia 71256 71656 71536 71536 71256 71536 71256 71208 71320 71320 71600 71600 71320 71600 _54 Kentucky 71304 71536 71562 71443 71372 71443 71372 71320 71452 71338 71532 71456 71338 71532 _55 Missouri 71372 71536 71443 71562 71304 71443 71372 71320 71338 71452 71456 71532 71338 71532 _56 South Carolina 71559 71256 71372 71304 71610 71372 71559 71600 71532 71456 71308 71270 71532 71270 _57 Tennessee 71372 71536 71443 71443 71372 71562 71304 71320 71338 71338 71532 71532 71452 71456 _58 Vanderbilt 71559 71256 71372 71372 71559 71304 71610 71600 71532 71532 71270 71270 71456 71308 _59 Alabama 71600 71208 71320 71320 71600 71320 71600 71656 71536 71536 71256 71256 71536 71256 _60 Arkansas 71456 71320 71452 71338 71532 71338 71532 71536 71562 71443 71372 71304 71443 71372 _61 Auburn 71532 71320 71338 71452 71456 71338 71532 71536 71443 71562 71304 71372 71443 71372 _62 LSU 71270 71600 71532 71456 71308 71532 71270 71256 71372 71304 71610 71559 71372 71559 _63 Mississippi 71308 71600 71456 71532 71270 71532 71270 71256 71304 71372 71559 71610 71372 71559 _64 Mississippi State 71532 71320 71338 71338 71532 71452 71456 71536 71443 71443 71372 71372 71562 71304 _65 Texas A&M 71270 71600 71532 71532 71270 71456 71308 71256 71372 71372 71559 71559 71304 71610

Big Ten	18695.2
Pac 12	3854.5
SEC	71415.7

I am sure things will change again. Meanwhile I'm designing the tests. I'll calculate my ratings for the connected field and then conmpare the ratings for the disconnected islands to those that result from executing the algorithms for the latter exactly as many times as it took to define the rating(s) for the connected field. A bit of work, but what else is there to do when you can't go out?