Preseason Computer Rankings

August 11, 2019

Over 20 40 of the computer rankings that published final 2018 rankings have published preseason rankings on Dr. Massey's College Football Ranking Composite page. I wonder how my "faith" in computer rankings as being objective can be justified when computer rankings are generated before any games are played. Surely the only way to generate a preseason rating is to begin with last year's ratings and "perturb" them by what must necessarily be subjective analysis (or speculation?)

I can think of no reasonable way to tease a preseason ranking from the ratings I calculate. They are not well-defined until the games graph is connected (there is an A played B played … chain between every pair of teams). This year that occurs fairly early with the games of 14 September (my birthday) but it takes 28 "played"s to do that with an average pathlength over 11. I will likely publish my ratings beginning 29 September, by which time the longest path is 7 and the average path length is just a bit over 4.

In general we don't know how a rating is "tweaked" to generate a preseason ranking, but we can tell what the effect is by comparing the preseason rankings to the final rankings from 2018. With 130 teams there are 8385 team-pairs, and if we count the number of pairs where team A is ranked above team B in the final 2018 ranking but below team B in the preseason ranking (or vice versa) we have a rough measure of how much "tweaking" is done. These are called discordant pairs and the number of them is the distance between these ratings.

In the table below the teams are listed in order of most to least -different preseason rankings compared to the final 2018 rankings by the same ratings. The best, median, and worst rankings for the preseason and final polls are listed. Disc is the sum of the number of discordant pairs that include the team in any rating's list, and ΔMed shows the direction of the change (positive being improvement.) For each rating the number of teams that swapped relative position with the team is shown. The ratings are ordered by most to least -changed. The number of discordant pairs and number of team rankings that were unchanged are shown for each rating at the end of the table.

Source: Massey Ratings College Football Ranking Composite as of Fri Aug 30 06:20:14
(47 computer rankings)

30 Aug 2019 6:56am (US Mountain)
BestMedWorst2018
Best
2018
Med
2018
Worst
ΔMedBetterSameWorseDiscteamLSDMGSRTPCGVDWIPFZARGBMCLOGFEIFPIJNGENGDESLAZPIRTRPKEEBWEHOWPPPDIICTWDOKRUDTPRPGHPAYKLNSMSSAGBILBDFKELKPKMASSORCSLMORBASHATRWPKAMNUTMARDCIBRN
93911781746-2256361281Fresno State101662277425247462454492114242946484246209374036224233114128362514537621121000000
2678118214382-3547361256UAB63623276772260302939284516324258324722481145183721103519112832431616121758632100000
4499049681031934581194Florida State5348215236654254325848452842282137213438223023291834213820194228131413793511100000
3788114275885-3038361155Buffalo74473959384451433845363625324036313623371237172824352822133015101812146731110200000
2045993273992833681150Nebraska6755324531274035342334712544352631421720153934311914504023103243910139161511100000
850893668931833591146Southern California74627135285627383628274026374418303330432027152336163139161420295152010710601120000
2348994970922236561133Virginia Tech514261402943454619373360492931373329302430281928292931203119251514118693531010000
74798112650-2177331104Utah State70714265343460511211602140322427471830242428144322332171716319151161249810000000
206010350861062637641101UCLA67602958312165501632485112372536333324171418312916372330191717452277760432200000
155698396594930891083Tennessee5546435844225038425050252744204540181721281526231834141242251714121165571130000000
1874121204794-27118281020Georgia Southern5560803822383025242617462935491121292144192127144013303611141411812121568720000000
239412987107129133467972Louisville80464957135041391733374311302822217553016108262830211430112217931255310100000
939107112675-133935951Army775721723022324120122122261833342323441818272024372019221482011812132009210000000
1646120165582926813910Baylor4731592822253530344238264731182624212023221712212225171719212510151126551000010000
2153782469961631511909Memphis5131282953183526215320252829201926323021212919202213253816151514121512687411010000
1857101184967-86833906Ohio52542952262032473023374124341931342735151519232215181718131714611781050410100000
1365104497299730710898Mississippi7054364448282522402725412126261317223324201515241520161518181779999106310000000
3059107375582-414528896Georgia Tech472524306124423048254524232018263526271322191722162091012321433147352131011010000
49881103472104-166635893Nevada50393537283336282237242433252722202521242821211424162616111713716191314711441000000
1953901967951429711890Kansas State59334341253736242239173128423224212917261720231218161312132415111014128105803000000
35831233471106-129929887North Texas704038392754252141451526402530181519122327191023141616141713122961210972620000000
44641034982103183368882Arizona51345743282732362025194529262111264224121218142214122318111213191010176855223000000
447811966104122263593876North Carolina686526401526153115182342103932283192694361918262122241418232211942237320000000
5583102436890-154637875Middle Tenn State49373733282435362323243222252621242917202230182117152122152416121112145109851020000
216593234579-2091028864Troy746026452124242425221830264133301932151015332122209153279710812111466530000000
BestMedWorst2018
Best
2018
Med
2018
Worst
ΔMedBetterSameWorseDiscteamLSDMGSRTPCGVDWIPFZARGBMCLOGFEIFPIJNGENGDESLAZPIRTRPKEEBWEHOWPPPDIICTWDOKRUDTPRPGHPAYKLNSMSSAGBILBDFKELKPKMASSORCSLMORBASHATRWPKAMNUTMARDCIBRN
23619734669853368849Indiana3834344129244523431922272621243528321320341420151413151313181411917176144811000000
2853105355079-315923847Purdue4927263454382425443930252223162520182315261913161017151617141722101579138330000000
298812256106124183278845Arkansas696128421720152769193137153429262153010142610261611191329720010831612440010000
55901165378106-127535844Miami-Ohio4228383034292436363827232518202122152819252218161223211619191641211159107480130000
54275122959-1315923842Cincinnati60424733164911251692322141532221916353624212520421615181512261751301946010010000
15811115890110928613840South Florida47335427155338292316256731920242810232922151627192017612171883137755441200000
1340861547108726813827Minnesota4525413326252827241726232020172527222312181732171122181812221996777667600000000
36781054681105328613825San Diego State53324233205120211627222751262021201619261920141314121812191618293106868861200000
5379292759-1012926814Appalachian State36742346141383415212727444526212817301315191417192219815917127101416121033000000
3879109437497-515527811Florida Intl6233313526372717222220311626322114221825261513141518191414221121131481562660110000
1036782451721525913809Miami-Florida47315234331228261315164336232617112020222828141628152620811131569235213210010000
4469102476699-319523809Maryland41363135325041173218242520192413182117142517112514181413131312915171761841612010000
1958112375973120720808BYU52346134541924252526242428221716162421152211211819241112151711101593767611100000
21711135174113326912807Houston4932423225352420363017341416201329122421482323102013241071512125137101014330000000
3182110719111093089804Western Michigan5931263327375626114535103318122625152017181712181822139212419106103735123100000
255695266196525715801Texas Tech342731352621262725232132342431192736181816181821191614262315151371513662111000000
94080304567528514801TCU4630402745262426311926332616182221192425152118271915161515131995126769432010000
3053102314470-981029798Boston College51352034561830192029332917251720241421141320152610331715162021101479837710000000
72961254364143863794Michigan State4535383332153834351018242322152418271819141813201518261613131423186109461212000000
2681112527796-414924791Tulane64393235382824173512202332222416211711232617221516181611161212771215989540010000
3883102487298-1115824790Northern Illinois4839313327262124462624192628242015231618281414171512161714111118591413513331210000
10307581441-165735770Kentucky661222242331213412412035132022222922131791713282316316101525301751834901000000
4163106436085-314924769California4631352555272620242821223522192118231219221215121517813131514121012186511405010000
436287385690-6131024759Temple50452833282825222421162629301714192315114616171116201613141219149115443500000000
254584254270-316625758Pittsburgh4630372724281925221919291820181822202013441615201114141723111716121079711521020000
BestMedWorst2018
Best
2018
Med
2018
Worst
ΔMedBetterSameWorseDiscteamLSDMGSRTPCGVDWIPFZARGBMCLOGFEIFPIJNGENGDESLAZPIRTRPKEEBWEHOWPPPDIICTWDOKRUDTPRPGHPAYKLNSMSSAGBILBDFKELKPKMASSORCSLMORBASHATRWPKAMNUTMARDCIBRN
355491235386-115923757Vanderbilt52283634272726352433212519251516191830173010141816161017141313126107873600000000
498197377192-1014528752Arkansas State464037332527232128222032251727231517191823171411121615201113111331097107851010000
307090386285-8101126745Marshall522930372530241924271332252129291622191627161515181216181198109128562540000000
1942100214374120522742Virginia612934172747162420242133172219182316292514172014131619171510137677757211110000
235692235181-520720742Wake Forest633121244024261623261824222819211317151314152018121617171713142912910856401100000
3380995083101321818741Toledo60345735183823232118151418171729259202514171214241216151313131411109914310000000
7094120618294-125636736Eastern Michigan40332734203432241827231823161621181322231618151913191210151816211096985842010000
294874253760-1111432728Duke522827163224171935332524162219242136171291819151510191713151723466444621110000
294777255168425517727Arizona State4935322431232024281823262312161920221714291115231213142117111510101097410711010000
50891174685117-416724727Louisiana Tech493530423525221721281925212318231318181930178171218151011121094129998122010000
3984103449099628910722Southern Miss44322731312522212227251717168172049159381316161126111092261613115445720020000
13297092351-614627719West Virginia322423282714434629943191118162753931011231224121822891619101597543412010000
133673183162-5101324713North Carolina State482222204315293033162122161613322437161210184016141510181118139961633420000000
123375184086725616703Oklahoma State482742273424262323122121171321162317162322182115181116171115148696359310100000
42757193853113188702Wisconsin472729182629242215292024171524171313183292030132611261410119181077582520000000
60951175389114-621620701Hawaii4438343027193615129191412302325121014152679132020191552938512208764230310000
57861095480104-67733696Wyoming4029332927221835181421193016211918162011212115151317171014169781117853620500000
11269681836-89830689Syracuse8731301122451624282527101512251023142425891325202891461311487596701000000
54991255498120-117624685Kansas27401825143222381821303116201321241623161271211142571218121411065135221100030000
7274817365793449684Oregon352421231818283124172123171412182319191311191726122315121418231418721243914110000
54789760881041032510663Colorado383819351626201716291227322621151117191012172120121117151313577611968512100000
448010858921061229711641Air Force631823201926301519241513101322231222171072528161615141619136396101015511100000
2710212781104118217921633Navy7322511911311613141417316102612169232314581127188913181511552104121260010000
1430102193348324815632Iowa State6526262521252513282420211813131815162116915191512111112111113157101611300000000
133469122979-512728619Northwestern39252420141615242917231720141414172515131222251512151122131213111391335313000000
BestMedWorst2018
Best
2018
Med
2018
Worst
ΔMedBetterSameWorseDiscteamLSDMGSRTPCGVDWIPFZARGBMCLOGFEIFPIJNGENGDESLAZPIRTRPKEEBWEHOWPPPDIICTWDOKRUDTPRPGHPAYKLNSMSSAGBILBDFKELKPKMASSORCSLMORBASHATRWPKAMNUTMARDCIBRN
16357513387133278618South Carolina522629362725221515141928191715171218131312151513141012111511106961649411010000
34911185992118122619610Florida Atlantic32284520141324242325201027119211916179101911121516119201211168631133411100000
14276892539-216922604Boise State25381950198152541721161313112618171312101414121310102381113691195310501000000
72663122454-2161021601Stanford271723205019162222111419910101711231717101726151122981211111115872581603000000
379912090101119226912595Illinois38402152619172191721591811251861593208131117991813731714943300100000
62911137797105627614595SMU373442222712201931820627218262269713141213121712814131441234744523100000
72961306689111-7151022591UL Lafayette5125292727151914201611141313201711101218131615111514141227861171215732010000000
3210512296117128123287575Western Kentucky9025231220311713222721210121079191618177211116211141310301036434510010000
92252152942729810550Utah3320242024151816191110221920101411121413261218111010139101010191296744310010000
621051308811012852999549Oregon State3445186036216251692007171226131013121461017121397994061510233322110000
3209841326-761031548UCF8834158122423221291713311151810181361041051211813158160654420512000000
72106126891161281030107538Rutgers4252264914319161112140111916156151210101326121410913145705971053201100000
82165624413191117521Missouri5119242225261615985283913131011791317725316710148698466430320000000
7911012784101120-95735509UNC-Charlotte33212615123216171519164181022312202324129814181312878104314545410010000
10411913095108126-1121035503Massachusetts321924222214231312519321713141716916617161410921148121101032733600820000
8210312086114124113467477Tulsa40201312361514147913229111617102091215111213151513129740345445321100000
8186761632-214825472Texas591424182318147133692858121187141041311122949614601285623422000000
681021296696113-6101027468UL Monroe35202722291410131011814141216966992478613121112295811065356200100000
7510813073100124-812926461Liberty39263213171799101211108142412776212017571971111910506441123320010000
8215561429-78831456Washington State473217419111111217149118119121710121014141711871093169545651621000000
7911412793109125-59830454Akron35173618169181610181731020111618810951581581210137531565672400110000
59111127102112126122916452Colorado State6024301715241389101131412151381018161211581161058990724334211100000
9211512888101127-1491028443Coastal Carolina372735151512148149851118197912101710189713720911540622737100000000
5114062555143287430Auburn2918332326151459105111814192595161310165128121159510553442310010000
79112126102112130021719410Ball State321615193218159911104131312791091671010148168711830363353301110000
BestMedWorst2018
Best
2018
Med
2018
Worst
ΔMedBetterSameWorseDiscteamLSDMGSRTPCGVDWIPFZARGBMCLOGFEIFPIJNGENGDESLAZPIRTRPKEEBWEHOWPPPDIICTWDOKRUDTPRPGHPAYKLNSMSSAGBILBDFKELKPKMASSORCSLMORBASHATRWPKAMNUTMARDCIBRN
61735620373191018403Iowa312324182261381059141314767841381011171014842879877492300000000
6145261828425814395Penn State26137173715953286101351086148913716310986547821010715500010000
6155671629117723391Washington25125214412191213773353951010818418591861061632898625401000000
6184031944118920390Mississippi State281817222371110131716131411612441315687115114981111377942010010000
81114125104113125-113925384New Mexico421819189131311108112151110910861011109101289711630656445300110000
90113126100114126127119384East Carolina38231713181114137131321315741110981010810997669702475410000110000
73122130105128130623159378Central Michigan50155635183439119017157941019359613676118100010610000010000
67119129105123127422718375Texas State23127125818119813172212410142311612137221135910101132214301100000
8211912799116123-3121025374Old Dominion409212120916571410381061210101012810987107710850964232402000000
97108124961081230141221369UNLV2715251318121371012104139968118109121071098875203754142420100000
72121129981211270171218327Bowling Green49151515161295766389795910811916485576850533223100010000
851191261001201281241310326Georgia State141424112714169971101333812138996155554613760634310210000000
911221271031221300251210326Texas-San Antonio2829291411201465570131184393101069873577480541344100010000
1001181281001201292221015313San Jose State271323824591091312093788131742715585257480514623101000000
9412412997118127-6131024296South Alabama341520141514113651010644865105997338149430256453510000000
106120130110125129527911291Kent State1321211141317101310801837881463512156155688120511313210100000
2123621123-110928272Texas A&M287241491776116649690533612474102217643673026221010000
951231301091241301201314263New Mexico State157261310141851044116132688651279612333430633122000200000
41031510260161318242Florida1852211715541055434906511109253153117450166025350000000
2717492123179194LSU877101187910213133647352617434112670733322311010000
18595959127137187Michigan115245742796361614143283102215243301224560201010000
37432415-351329172Notre Dame4046411625832416333453223441467120303300310000000
110128130122129130123204172Connecticut21161713191110103017220311441010110106130110100000000000
97128130118127129-1121817128Rice2934733320520052325225110102252410510113200000000
35123527092216115Oklahoma332682152823222023322614122221320021320000000000
BestMedWorst2018
Best
2018
Med
2018
Worst
ΔMedBetterSameWorseDiscteamLSDMGSRTPCGVDWIPFZARGBMCLOGFEIFPIJNGENGDESLAZPIRTRPKEEBWEHOWPPPDIICTWDOKRUDTPRPGHPAYKLNSMSSAGBILBDFKELKPKMASSORCSLMORBASHATRWPKAMNUTMARDCIBRN
25232412-1131717114Ohio State231463451629241031972202321141410002320200000000
24163511117191198Georgia1243575104003281203221014012221020021220200000000
10113013011213013001129783UTEP2951315011171006002310200100102000100000000000000
121012401431224Alabama11181100000001110010200100111010000000000000000
11511200331421Clemson23240100000001110010000100111010000000000000000
                                                
Same:13263287378168579106677797985768104698121216222152729181130130128130
Disc:2933191118601831166114731452132813141240123112111208118611191111110910971064101310139769699619289278938268177827806175325114464443413052971174730290000

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