Surfing the Directed Games Graph

November 17, 2016

In a pleasant little book The Numbers Behind Numb3rs, Keith Devlin and Gary Lorden talk about the real mathematics behind the TV show. In the chapter Connecting the Dots there's a section entitled "A New Kind of War, A New Kind of Math" in which they write

... In using techniques of graph theory and network analysis to analyze social networks, such as terrorist networks, mathematicians have developed a specialized subdiscipline known as Social Network Analysis (SNA).
They go on to explain some of the metrics that result from this "subdiscipline" and how they are used.

When I read that my immediate reaction was "what is new about that?" It's only a "subdiscipline" because they gave new names to things people who studied networks had been counting all along. No doubt they've developed better tools (and have supercomputers to allow them to apply them on a very large scale) but they're not doing anything fundamentally different from what people who study graphs have done since Euler's time.

Sports ratings systems are all about network analysis, if not graph theory. The "graph" is the set of vertices (teams) and edges (games played.) The graph describes a (connected) network when there is a way to connect every vertex to every other vertex by following edges that begin at the first and end at the other. The number of edges traversed is the path length between the two vertices.

Ratings are actually metrics on the directed games graph. We may be able to connect all the teams with an "A played B played ... played Z" chain (A⇔Z) in which case Z⇔A is the same chain in reverse order but what is useful is "A beat B ... beat Z" (A⇒Z) and there may not even be a Z⇒A chain. Regardless of its algorithm, any rating is essentially the same as assigning a weight to A→B for all games in which team A won and applying the weights to come up with a rating for each team.

We can use some of the same principles used to track down terrorists to figure out which games have had the most impact on advanced rating systems. Start with the 1A Directed Games Graph through week 11. There are 128 vertices (the teams) and 583 edges (games.) Define A⇒B to be the set of all paths beginning with "A beat ..." and ending with "... beat B" that includes the shortest such path and all other such paths of the same length. Consider A⇒B to be a winning path if it is shorter than B⇒A; is the same length with more elements or if there are the same number of paths of the same length in both directions. Otherwise consider it a losing path.

For the Second Order Winning Percentage we make a distinction between wins and ties. There the measurements are comparisons of vertices. I choose the weaker definition of winning path to measure the contribution of edges.
When we count up all of the paths in any ⇒ set we find that the 583 games result in 22,005 A beat B beat ... chains, 12,281 "winning" and 9,724 "losing."

If we label the edges naturally as winner→loser we can count how many of each kind of path each game contributes to. For instance, the game that is included in the most paths is
    Pittsburgh→Penn State
which is a part of 1801 paths. Interestingly more than ¾ (1395) of those are losing paths. In fact, the 583 games appear in the 22005 paths a total of 101,601 times – 56,476 times in a losing path compared to 45,125 in winning paths.

And that suggests there might be some metrics we can form from the measurements. To begin define a Significance Index (SI) as the number of times a game appears in a losing chain divided by the number of times it appears in a winning chain. (The latter is always > 0 since x→y itself is a winning chain of length one.)

171 of the 583 games (29.3%) contribute more to losing paths than winning. These are the games that based purely upon the directed games graph "should have" been won by the other team. Using SI (descending) to order them, they are listed below, with All, InWin and InLoss broken out by the position in the path where the game occurs.

SIAllInWinInLossGame_1__2__3__4__5__6__7__8__9__10__11_
7.2440449355Wake Forest→Duke53 (17-36)39 (6-33)60 (6-54)142 (9-133)69 (11-58)39 (0-39)2 (0-2)    
5.92810117693Boise State→Washington State48 (33-15)19 (9-10)37 (14-23)111 (28-83)205 (24-181)238 (9-229)134 (0-134)16 (0-16)2 (0-2)  
5.1431351262Utah→Southern California31 (26-5)10 (4-6)15 (5-10)17 (4-13)28 (8-20)56 (4-52)73 (0-73)58 (0-58)22 (0-22)3 (0-3) 
4.8819433161Ohio State→Northwestern31 (23-8)5 (2-3)1 (1-0)4 (1-3)9 (3-6)29 (3-26)39 (0-39)36 (0-36)26 (0-26)10 (0-10)4 (0-4)
4.6846081379Kentucky→South Carolina44 (27-17)43 (15-28)105 (15-90)123 (10-113)104 (10-94)31 (4-27)10 (0-10)    
4.6745981378Penn State→Iowa21 (18-3)16 (12-4)28 (16-12)41 (15-26)90 (17-73)102 (3-99)77 (0-77)56 (0-56)20 (0-20)8 (0-8) 
4.64841149692Penn State→Ohio State58 (48-10)27 (22-5)55 (29-26)78 (23-55)156 (26-130)161 (1-160)146 (0-146)104 (0-104)40 (0-40)16 (0-16) 
4.5336566299Navy→Notre Dame51 (24-27)40 (18-22)67 (8-59)111 (12-99)71 (4-67)23 (0-23)2 (0-2)    
4.46568104464UNC-Charlotte→Southern Miss107 (13-94)127 (13-114)179 (32-147)101 (41-60)41 (4-37)12 (1-11)1 (0-1)    
4.3134064276Washington State→Stanford45 (36-9)26 (13-13)6 (2-4)14 (6-8)39 (6-33)71 (1-70)83 (0-83)49 (0-49)6 (0-6)1 (0-1) 
4.10775152623Miami-Florida→Pittsburgh68 (37-31)53 (17-36)132 (37-95)214 (44-170)200 (17-183)60 (0-60)36 (0-36)12 (0-12)   
3.9912872581029Wyoming→Boise State58 (29-29)106 (49-57)212 (71-141)332 (76-256)347 (28-319)202 (5-197)27 (0-27)3 (0-3)   
3.92871177694UL Lafayette→South Alabama98 (25-73)210 (51-159)205 (54-151)210 (41-169)111 (6-105)35 (0-35)2 (0-2)    
3.89651133518Vanderbilt→Georgia95 (46-49)134 (45-89)70 (15-55)109 (12-97)102 (4-98)104 (11-93)31 (0-31)4 (0-4)2 (0-2)  
3.791074224850Southern Miss→Kentucky110 (36-74)265 (61-204)258 (34-224)268 (54-214)123 (39-84)43 (0-43)7 (0-7)    
3.78803168635South Carolina→Tennessee85 (46-39)87 (52-35)70 (25-45)196 (19-177)192 (16-176)124 (10-114)33 (0-33)16 (0-16)   
3.7724852196Kentucky→Mississippi State28 (13-15)29 (17-12)40 (10-30)58 (4-54)63 (6-57)21 (2-19)9 (0-9)    
3.6938983306Ohio→Miami-Ohio66 (21-45)105 (20-85)147 (21-126)48 (18-30)9 (2-7)10 (1-9)4 (0-4)    
3.57475104371Kent State→Central Michigan95 (30-65)110 (39-71)103 (20-83)99 (14-85)43 (1-42)17 (0-17)8 (0-8)    
3.54968213755Oklahoma State→Pittsburgh76 (52-24)110 (50-60)234 (71-163)272 (29-243)192 (11-181)84 (0-84)     
3.48704157547San Diego State→California81 (47-34)33 (17-16)75 (32-43)153 (43-110)137 (12-125)145 (6-139)67 (0-67)13 (0-13)   
3.4418014061395Pittsburgh→Penn State67 (55-12)168 (103-65)204 (91-113)363 (112-251)377 (40-337)298 (5-293)212 (0-212)80 (0-80)32 (0-32)  
3.41829188641Pittsburgh→Clemson48 (36-12)55 (30-25)70 (29-41)175 (43-132)221 (36-185)129 (14-115)89 (0-89)30 (0-30)12 (0-12)  
3.3729367226Kentucky→Vanderbilt56 (23-33)32 (14-18)52 (8-44)62 (6-56)67 (13-54)18 (3-15)4 (0-4)2 (0-2)   
3.3523955184Ohio State→Nebraska31 (30-1)8 (8-0)6 (4-2)15 (4-11)22 (4-18)42 (5-37)39 (0-39)36 (0-36)26 (0-26)10 (0-10)4 (0-4)
SIAllInWinInLossGame_1__2__3__4__5__6__7__8__9__10__11_
3.33459106353Akron→Kent State71 (17-54)147 (26-121)114 (25-89)74 (23-51)41 (14-27)12 (1-11)     
3.31608141467California→Utah56 (35-21)79 (44-35)48 (21-27)47 (19-28)95 (19-76)119 (1-118)109 (2-107)47 (0-47)8 (0-8)  
3.3021550165Ohio State→Wisconsin43 (37-6)14 (7-7)1 (1-0)4 (1-3)9 (0-9)29 (4-25)39 (0-39)36 (0-36)26 (0-26)10 (0-10)4 (0-4)
3.22920218702South Alabama→Mississippi State72 (28-44)289 (72-217)296 (72-224)163 (37-126)76 (8-68)24 (1-23)     
3.2219446148Clemson→Louisville27 (23-4)4 (3-1)6 (1-5)9 (2-7)25 (7-18)47 (4-43)36 (6-30)26 (0-26)10 (0-10)4 (0-4) 
3.1527466208Missouri→Vanderbilt77 (23-54)56 (21-35)69 (12-57)25 (4-21)26 (5-21)17 (1-16)2 (0-2)2 (0-2)   
3.0218145136Auburn→LSU15 (12-3)10 (9-1)11 (4-7)15 (4-11)18 (6-12)40 (5-35)49 (5-44)15 (0-15)8 (0-8)  
2.9418547138Ball State→Buffalo90 (10-80)80 (28-52)11 (7-4)4 (2-2)       
2.92623159464Virginia Tech→Pittsburgh82 (53-29)97 (49-48)152 (56-96)54 (1-53)36 (0-36)106 (0-106)72 (0-72)24 (0-24)   
2.9133285247Akron→Miami-Ohio105 (24-81)59 (12-47)100 (21-79)48 (24-24)16 (3-13)4 (1-3)     
2.88411106305Arkansas State→South Alabama95 (37-58)134 (28-106)98 (30-68)51 (11-40)29 (0-29)4 (0-4)     
2.8715139112Wake Forest→Syracuse38 (12-26)7 (2-5)9 (6-3)31 (9-22)38 (10-28)25 (0-25)3 (0-3)    
2.80468123345San Jose State→UNLV97 (18-79)117 (35-82)156 (49-107)61 (16-45)27 (5-22)9 (0-9)1 (0-1)    
2.8015374041133Central Michigan→Oklahoma State87 (39-48)255 (114-141)395 (117-278)411 (102-309)266 (31-235)78 (1-77)33 (0-33)10 (0-10)2 (0-2)  
2.6628979210Rice→UNC-Charlotte125 (9-116)80 (18-62)51 (27-24)26 (18-8)7 (7-0)      
2.65732053Air Force→Utah State23 (6-17)18 (1-17)23 (8-15)8 (4-4)1 (1-0)      
2.64502138364North Carolina→Pittsburgh53 (35-18)66 (36-30)112 (44-68)126 (23-103)40 (0-40)81 (0-81)12 (0-12)12 (0-12)   
2.6317448126UNC-Charlotte→Marshall56 (4-52)79 (12-67)22 (17-5)13 (13-0)1 (1-0)2 (1-1)1 (0-1)    
2.61513142371Tennessee→Virginia Tech53 (48-5)87 (62-25)61 (19-42)44 (10-34)139 (3-136)102 (0-102)27 (0-27)    
2.6125671185Clemson→Auburn36 (33-3)17 (10-7)26 (12-14)29 (8-21)72 (6-66)56 (2-54)11 (0-11)9 (0-9)   
2.59592165427Miami-Ohio→Central Michigan65 (25-40)159 (50-109)156 (55-101)154 (30-124)35 (5-30)14 (0-14)6 (0-6)3 (0-3)   
2.57471132339Middle Tenn State→Missouri72 (16-56)133 (23-110)104 (33-71)81 (29-52)55 (26-29)21 (5-16)5 (0-5)    
2.5114441103Tennessee→Florida26 (21-5)5 (4-1)3 (0-3)4 (1-3)15 (4-11)30 (6-24)41 (5-36)12 (0-12)8 (0-8)  
2.501263690Washington State→Arizona State25 (24-1)7 (6-1)3 (2-1)4 (0-4)12 (3-9)22 (1-21)31 (0-31)19 (0-19)3 (0-3)  
2.49611175436Duke→North Carolina100 (52-48)119 (48-71)99 (39-60)98 (31-67)122 (5-117)51 (0-51)22 (0-22)    
SIAllInWinInLossGame_1__2__3__4__5__6__7__8__9__10__11_
2.45576167409Marshall→Middle Tenn State112 (11-101)165 (50-115)157 (54-103)99 (43-56)32 (9-23)11 (0-11)     
2.43837244593Mississippi State→Texas A&M104 (41-63)91 (47-44)137 (66-71)176 (64-112)186 (26-160)109 (0-109)27 (0-27)7 (0-7)   
2.41696204492Miami-Ohio→Eastern Michigan57 (21-36)166 (67-99)236 (69-167)180 (31-149)50 (16-34)5 (0-5)2 (0-2)    
2.401023072South Florida→Syracuse43 (16-27)28 (3-25)26 (7-19)1 (1-0)4 (3-1)      
2.4021463151Stanford→Southern California28 (25-3)19 (16-3)6 (5-1)6 (3-3)14 (7-7)30 (7-23)46 (0-46)43 (0-43)22 (0-22)  
2.39970286684Buffalo→Army85 (20-65)362 (104-258)313 (124-189)203 (38-165)7 (0-7)      
2.3517452122Old Dominion→Southern Miss65 (18-47)38 (8-30)28 (7-21)39 (18-21)2 (1-1)2 (0-2)     
2.34869260609UNLV→Wyoming122 (34-88)177 (67-110)226 (87-139)226 (61-165)96 (11-85)18 (0-18)4 (0-4)    
2.29336102234Temple→SMU37 (21-16)29 (15-14)46 (17-29)118 (30-88)70 (18-52)34 (1-33)2 (0-2)    
2.29474144330New Mexico State→UL Lafayette58 (11-47)49 (15-34)154 (55-99)157 (55-102)49 (7-42)7 (1-6)     
2.22422131291Syracuse→Virginia Tech90 (35-55)134 (41-93)56 (13-43)70 (26-44)54 (16-38)15 (0-15)3 (0-3)    
2.211011315696South Alabama→San Diego State68 (32-36)157 (81-76)249 (112-137)200 (57-143)200 (29-171)106 (4-102)30 (0-30)1 (0-1)   
2.16988313675Eastern Michigan→Wyoming80 (42-38)146 (79-67)268 (110-158)299 (68-231)179 (14-165)16 (0-16)     
2.151208383825Notre Dame→Miami-Florida88 (36-52)204 (97-107)373 (150-223)341 (92-249)104 (8-96)75 (0-75)21 (0-21)2 (0-2)   
2.12428137291Bowling Green→Akron125 (13-112)127 (42-85)65 (32-33)74 (41-33)35 (9-26)2 (0-2)     
2.09346112234Connecticut→Virginia103 (24-79)149 (54-95)49 (22-27)31 (9-22)11 (3-8)3 (0-3)     
2.09358116242Florida Atlantic→UTEP122 (16-106)121 (54-67)95 (36-59)20 (10-10)       
2.08410133277Oklahoma State→West Virginia38 (28-10)27 (15-12)67 (37-30)72 (26-46)100 (27-73)63 (0-63)25 (0-25)13 (0-13)4 (0-4)1 (0-1) 
2.0822573152Texas A&M→Auburn21 (17-4)26 (11-15)16 (4-12)30 (10-20)55 (19-36)59 (12-47)14 (0-14)4 (0-4)   
2.07697227470Mississippi State→South Carolina67 (34-33)93 (56-37)212 (54-158)207 (53-154)83 (29-54)22 (1-21)13 (0-13)    
2.00903060Washington State→California21 (21-0)5 (5-0)4 (2-2)6 (1-5)13 (0-13)23 (1-22)16 (0-16)2 (0-2)   
1.9226691175Southern California→Washington65 (52-13)16 (14-2)10 (7-3)9 (5-4)9 (4-5)15 (6-9)31 (3-28)46 (0-46)45 (0-45)19 (0-19)1 (0-1)
1.90873057Northern Illinois→Bowling Green62 (6-56)5 (5-0)7 (6-1)9 (9-0)4 (4-0)      
1.8722779148Middle Tenn State→Louisiana Tech32 (14-18)18 (7-11)41 (17-24)62 (26-36)54 (11-43)16 (4-12)4 (0-4)    
1.861465195Wake Forest→Virginia27 (12-15)46 (17-29)26 (11-15)14 (7-7)21 (4-17)10 (0-10)2 (0-2)    
SIAllInWinInLossGame_1__2__3__4__5__6__7__8__9__10__11_
1.851051369682Army→Wake Forest79 (15-64)107 (40-67)289 (102-187)333 (148-185)219 (64-155)24 (0-24)     
1.82335119216UL Monroe→South Alabama101 (26-75)114 (57-57)47 (15-32)51 (14-37)20 (7-13)2 (0-2)     
1.81732647Washington State→Oregon12 (12-0)5 (4-1)2 (1-1)2 (1-1)8 (3-5)17 (5-12)17 (0-17)10 (0-10)   
1.80417149268Houston→Oklahoma67 (36-31)44 (18-26)52 (40-12)41 (17-24)65 (22-43)94 (16-78)40 (0-40)13 (0-13)1 (0-1)  
1.781114071Colorado State→UNLV64 (15-49)33 (14-19)10 (8-2)2 (2-0)2 (1-1)      
1.7517965114Middle Tenn State→North Texas31 (16-15)40 (10-30)57 (17-40)35 (16-19)9 (5-4)5 (1-4)2 (0-2)    
1.7423385148Boise State→BYU58 (38-20)27 (10-17)42 (15-27)47 (15-32)36 (7-29)14 (0-14)7 (0-7)2 (0-2)   
1.7322181140Florida Intl→UNC-Charlotte65 (5-60)85 (22-63)43 (37-6)15 (14-1)10 (3-7)3 (0-3)     
1.7322181140North Carolina State→Notre Dame53 (22-31)69 (25-44)75 (20-55)13 (10-3)8 (4-4)2 (0-2)1 (0-1)    
1.71754278476New Mexico→Air Force77 (31-46)158 (58-100)239 (106-133)182 (65-117)80 (17-63)18 (1-17)     
1.71376139237UTEP→Texas-San Antonio83 (6-77)109 (19-90)99 (56-43)66 (46-20)14 (12-2)5 (0-5)     
1.70542034San Diego State→UNLV15 (11-4)5 (1-4)18 (4-14)15 (4-11)1 (0-1)      
1.70771286485Texas State→Ohio125 (22-103)310 (83-227)162 (107-55)84 (48-36)75 (24-51)15 (2-13)     
1.6924591154Georgia State→Texas State125 (11-114)46 (30-16)27 (18-9)29 (17-12)17 (15-2)1 (0-1)     
1.6921078132Northern Illinois→Buffalo116 (23-93)61 (39-22)20 (8-12)10 (8-2)3 (0-3)      
1.6817766111Toledo→Arkansas State32 (14-18)46 (16-30)48 (23-25)38 (10-28)8 (2-6)5 (1-4)     
1.68501187314Tulane→UL Lafayette113 (24-89)197 (74-123)137 (57-80)47 (27-20)7 (5-2)      
1.68431161270Iowa→Michigan79 (66-13)60 (51-9)45 (33-12)16 (5-11)26 (2-24)59 (4-55)61 (0-61)41 (0-41)30 (0-30)10 (0-10)4 (0-4)
1.66372140232North Carolina→Florida State43 (35-8)50 (30-20)67 (33-34)63 (26-37)54 (14-40)54 (2-52)30 (0-30)11 (0-11)   
1.6424091149Ohio→Buffalo51 (23-28)52 (20-32)105 (25-80)32 (23-9)       
1.6417466108Southern California→Colorado56 (44-12)14 (12-2)8 (6-2)7 (2-5)8 (1-7)12 (1-11)24 (0-24)27 (0-27)11 (0-11)6 (0-6)1 (0-1)
1.6318972117Auburn→Mississippi57 (38-19)17 (15-2)14 (7-7)18 (5-13)17 (3-14)30 (4-26)26 (0-26)9 (0-9)1 (0-1)  
1.62682642Hawaii→San Jose State20 (2-18)27 (7-20)18 (14-4)3 (3-0)       
1.611069410659Air Force→Navy62 (37-25)141 (52-89)283 (112-171)357 (181-176)166 (28-138)53 (0-53)7 (0-7)    
1.60913556UCF→Connecticut42 (12-30)23 (11-12)21 (7-14)5 (5-0)       
SIAllInWinInLossGame_1__2__3__4__5__6__7__8__9__10__11_
1.601485791Kent State→Buffalo49 (21-28)46 (24-22)46 (9-37)4 (3-1)2 (0-2)1 (0-1)     
1.58294114180Texas-San Antonio→North Texas55 (12-43)81 (30-51)91 (34-57)45 (26-19)17 (10-7)5 (2-3)     
1.57278108170Penn State→Minnesota20 (19-1)15 (12-3)35 (18-17)39 (21-18)49 (28-21)46 (10-36)34 (0-34)26 (0-26)10 (0-10)4 (0-4) 
1.5718070110Toledo→Central Michigan62 (37-25)55 (18-37)51 (13-38)5 (2-3)4 (0-4)3 (0-3)     
1.571626399Oklahoma→Baylor55 (39-16)28 (12-16)25 (5-20)12 (5-7)9 (2-7)14 (0-14)13 (0-13)5 (0-5)1 (0-1)  
1.56479187292Buffalo→Akron71 (11-60)159 (40-119)138 (72-66)79 (41-38)31 (23-8)1 (0-1)     
1.54877345532UTEP→New Mexico State77 (15-62)277 (101-176)318 (144-174)177 (71-106)27 (14-13)1 (0-1)     
1.54995392603Army→Temple57 (20-37)123 (63-60)312 (126-186)302 (132-170)184 (51-133)17 (0-17)     
1.53351139212Temple→South Florida45 (14-31)42 (18-24)40 (25-15)90 (38-52)82 (31-51)48 (13-35)4 (0-4)    
1.5219477117Oklahoma State→Texas28 (23-5)17 (13-4)26 (17-9)43 (13-30)45 (9-36)26 (2-24)8 (0-8)1 (0-1)   
1.5219979120South Carolina→Vanderbilt41 (22-19)27 (19-8)18 (11-7)48 (10-38)53 (14-39)12 (3-9)     
1.5223493141Georgia→Auburn45 (35-10)50 (34-16)51 (17-34)16 (7-9)21 (0-21)30 (0-30)16 (0-16)5 (0-5)   
1.51299119180Ohio→Toledo92 (33-59)33 (13-20)47 (22-25)43 (29-14)46 (17-29)34 (5-29)4 (0-4)    
1.50368147221Texas-San Antonio→Southern Miss63 (14-49)110 (26-84)109 (56-53)57 (42-15)23 (8-15)6 (1-5)     
1.501506090Auburn→Arkansas32 (30-2)20 (16-4)18 (12-6)20 (2-18)13 (0-13)29 (0-29)15 (0-15)2 (0-2)1 (0-1)  
1.49403162241Utah State→Arkansas State124 (18-106)97 (46-51)61 (35-26)59 (36-23)29 (20-9)26 (7-19)7 (0-7)    
1.4817169102San Jose State→Nevada65 (14-51)78 (29-49)25 (23-2)3 (3-0)       
1.46642638Oklahoma→TCU17 (14-3)2 (2-0)3 (2-1)7 (5-2)7 (3-4)13 (0-13)11 (0-11)4 (0-4)   
1.45271116Houston→Tulane27 (11-16)          
1.4421086124Temple→Cincinnati42 (16-26)34 (11-23)29 (19-10)48 (30-18)29 (9-20)24 (1-23)4 (0-4)    
1.4319982117TCU→Baylor68 (30-38)66 (21-45)34 (21-13)13 (7-6)7 (3-4)5 (0-5)4 (0-4)2 (0-2)   
1.41299124175UNLV→Hawaii61 (18-43)128 (59-69)43 (19-24)42 (21-21)23 (7-16)2 (0-2)     
1.4117673103UL Lafayette→Texas State48 (11-37)36 (17-19)26 (15-11)43 (19-24)22 (11-11)1 (0-1)     
1.40723042Washington State→UCLA33 (27-6)1 (1-0)1 (0-1)2 (0-2)8 (2-6)11 (0-11)11 (0-11)5 (0-5)   
1.391225171Indiana→Michigan State51 (13-38)22 (17-5)4 (3-1)9 (5-4)18 (10-8)11 (3-8)5 (0-5)2 (0-2)   
SIAllInWinInLossGame_1__2__3__4__5__6__7__8__9__10__11_
1.39628263365North Texas→Army91 (42-49)183 (92-91)192 (96-96)128 (33-95)34 (0-34)      
1.39303127176Florida Intl→UTEP82 (20-62)140 (50-90)59 (45-14)15 (12-3)6 (0-6)1 (0-1)     
1.37242102140Texas A&M→Arkansas33 (30-3)32 (20-12)21 (14-7)36 (15-21)44 (16-28)43 (7-36)24 (0-24)6 (0-6)3 (0-3)  
1.36331140191Navy→Houston31 (24-7)25 (23-2)32 (18-14)63 (27-36)110 (45-65)52 (3-49)16 (0-16)2 (0-2)   
1.36269114155Louisiana Tech→Western Kentucky60 (19-41)43 (21-22)42 (30-12)33 (22-11)48 (19-29)35 (3-32)6 (0-6)2 (0-2)   
1.36535227308Georgia→North Carolina63 (56-7)125 (81-44)186 (81-105)33 (5-28)64 (4-60)39 (0-39)25 (0-25)    
1.3519081109Virginia Tech→North Carolina47 (29-18)53 (24-29)39 (17-22)23 (8-15)21 (3-18)7 (0-7)     
1.33242104138Clemson→Troy41 (33-8)14 (13-1)10 (10-0)15 (12-3)34 (18-16)52 (16-36)38 (2-36)24 (0-24)10 (0-10)4 (0-4) 
1.32265114151Wyoming→Air Force54 (30-24)99 (40-59)44 (26-18)36 (14-22)25 (4-21)7 (0-7)     
1.31513222291Nevada→Buffalo124 (23-101)180 (71-109)139 (73-66)61 (54-7)5 (1-4)3 (0-3)1 (0-1)    
1.29897391506New Mexico State→New Mexico84 (18-66)220 (106-114)270 (140-130)224 (106-118)93 (21-72)6 (0-6)     
1.28401176225Baylor→Oklahoma State85 (56-29)129 (55-74)95 (29-66)67 (34-33)16 (2-14)6 (0-6)3 (0-3)    
1.24280125155Virginia→Duke80 (24-56)83 (40-43)73 (47-26)27 (11-16)17 (3-14)      
1.24275123152Massachusetts→Florida Intl125 (16-109)49 (38-11)45 (41-4)36 (19-17)16 (5-11)4 (4-0)     
1.24763442Louisiana Tech→Texas-San Antonio24 (6-18)18 (7-11)26 (18-8)8 (3-5)       
1.231456580Air Force→Colorado State33 (9-24)18 (7-11)33 (18-15)31 (18-13)21 (10-11)8 (3-5)1 (0-1)    
1.23394177217Cincinnati→Miami-Ohio96 (35-61)165 (67-98)80 (41-39)49 (32-17)4 (2-2)      
1.23710319391Virginia→Central Michigan79 (33-46)225 (119-106)264 (124-140)90 (37-53)40 (6-34)12 (0-12)     
1.22284128156Iowa State→San Jose State124 (33-91)113 (61-52)30 (21-9)9 (9-0)5 (3-2)3 (1-2)     
1.2220693113Illinois→Michigan State83 (32-51)87 (38-49)5 (5-0)16 (9-7)13 (9-4)1 (0-1)1 (0-1)    
1.21311417Western Kentucky→Middle Tenn State15 (5-10)8 (2-6)5 (4-1)3 (3-0)       
1.2120191110West Virginia→BYU45 (41-4)18 (13-5)19 (10-9)42 (20-22)28 (7-21)29 (0-29)18 (0-18)2 (0-2)   
1.211707793New Mexico→San Jose State12 (5-7)21 (6-15)47 (17-30)46 (24-22)34 (21-13)10 (4-6)     
1.2018383100Purdue→Illinois84 (24-60)12 (10-2)22 (15-7)19 (11-8)16 (13-3)18 (9-9)10 (1-9)2 (0-2)   
1.171416576California→Oregon18 (16-2)20 (15-5)15 (7-8)11 (8-3)24 (12-12)22 (7-15)21 (0-21)9 (0-9)1 (0-1)  
SIAllInWinInLossGame_1__2__3__4__5__6__7__8__9__10__11_
1.141637687North Carolina→Georgia Tech33 (23-10)19 (15-4)34 (20-14)37 (15-22)13 (3-10)13 (0-13)9 (0-9)5 (0-5)   
1.141376473Pittsburgh→Georgia Tech29 (19-10)25 (18-7)21 (9-12)38 (17-21)15 (1-14)5 (0-5)4 (0-4)    
1.13833944Boise State→Oregon State8 (8-0)1 (1-0)2 (2-0)8 (7-1)19 (14-5)24 (6-18)18 (1-17)3 (0-3)   
1.12278131147Western Kentucky→Miami-Ohio66 (33-33)89 (41-48)76 (36-40)32 (17-15)15 (4-11)      
1.12367173194Texas A&M→UCLA29 (21-8)61 (40-21)68 (43-25)69 (48-21)55 (21-34)46 (0-46)37 (0-37)2 (0-2)   
1.11287136151Central Michigan→UNLV36 (18-18)53 (24-29)99 (56-43)77 (31-46)19 (7-12)3 (0-3)     
1.111165561UNC-Charlotte→Florida Atlantic35 (10-25)49 (17-32)18 (16-2)10 (10-0)3 (2-1)1 (0-1)     
1.10612932Washington State→Idaho21 (19-2)2 (2-0)1 (0-1)3 (2-1)11 (3-8)13 (3-10)8 (0-8)2 (0-2)   
1.10225107118New Mexico→UL Monroe41 (17-24)29 (11-18)70 (31-39)46 (30-16)24 (15-9)14 (3-11)1 (0-1)    
1.10430205225SMU→Houston69 (27-42)94 (71-23)76 (48-28)74 (37-37)84 (20-64)25 (2-23)8 (0-8)    
1.101517279Eastern Michigan→UNC-Charlotte33 (10-23)33 (18-15)49 (28-21)24 (12-12)12 (4-8)      
1.10653134Temple→Connecticut14 (4-10)6 (5-1)5 (4-1)16 (10-6)18 (8-10)6 (0-6)     
1.09944549Maryland→Michigan State54 (26-28)38 (18-20)1 (1-0)1 (0-1)       
1.081356570Florida Atlantic→Rice42 (1-41)35 (14-21)38 (30-8)20 (20-0)       
1.06663234Kentucky→Missouri25 (15-10)21 (10-11)20 (7-13)        
1.05783840San Diego State→Hawaii31 (23-8)8 (2-6)17 (5-12)14 (5-9)8 (3-5)      
1.05275134141Akron→Marshall31 (11-20)77 (37-40)85 (39-46)49 (28-21)27 (15-12)6 (4-2)     
1.05803941Georgia→South Carolina29 (26-3)11 (7-4)9 (4-5)11 (1-10)9 (0-9)8 (1-7)3 (0-3)    
1.031818992Michigan→Colorado31 (31-0)15 (15-0)23 (22-1)23 (20-3)11 (1-10)17 (0-17)30 (0-30)22 (0-22)5 (0-5)4 (0-4) 
1.031879295Miami-Florida→Georgia Tech44 (28-16)20 (12-8)27 (18-9)45 (22-23)33 (11-22)10 (1-9)7 (0-7)1 (0-1)   
1.02934647South Florida→Memphis33 (20-13)7 (6-1)3 (3-0)10 (7-3)23 (7-16)12 (3-9)5 (0-5)    
Significance Index has the full report for all games.

The Good Win Index

A glance at the _1_ column suggests a new vertex-oriented metric we can derive from these measurements of edges. Define the Good Win Index as:
GWI(x) =Px − Nx

Winsx + Lossesx
where
Px
is the number of paths x→...→y where the strength of x⇒y is ≥ than that of y⇒x
Nx
is the number of paths x→...→y where the strength of x⇒y is < than that of y⇒x
Winsx
is the number of →s that originate at x
Lossesx
is the number of →s that terminate at x (x←)

Note that for this purpose Px and Nx count only paths that originate at x: the paths generated by team x's wins. The number of losses is included in the denomninator to keep teams with very few wins from having an artificially high value. Through week 11, the list conforms pretty much to intuition.

RGWIP-NTeamConfPNWinsLosses
124.22218Western MichiganMAC218090
222.10221Southern CaliforniaP122694873
321.22191WashingtonP12200981
420.80208AlabamaSEC2080100
519.33174NorthwesternB10180654
618.90189NebraskaB102021382
717.70177WisconsinB10184782
817.38139LSUSEC1652653
916.78151FloridaSEC1712072
916.78151ColoradoP121661572
1116.67150ClemsonACC1883881
1216.60166MichiganB10170491
1316.20162Ohio StateB101872591
1415.60156LouisvilleACC1822691
1515.11136Washington StateP121541881
1515.11136GeorgiaSEC1652954
1715.10151StanfordP121621173
1814.78133Florida StateACC1612863
1914.44130MississippiSEC1592945
2014.33129IowaB101492063
2114.22128TennesseeSEC1663863
2213.89125UtahP121532872
2313.60136Penn StateB101642882
2413.25106West VirginiaB121443871
2513.11118Texas A&MSEC1432563
RGWIP-NTeamConfPNWinsLosses
2612.78115Arizona StateP121442945
2712.00108ArkansasSEC1615354
2811.67105North CarolinaACC1433863
2911.33102PittsburghACC1393754
3011.30113Boise StateMW1544191
3011.30113AuburnSEC1685573
3211.1389TroySBC1496071
3310.3393Virginia TechACC1606763
3410.20102OklahomaB121444282
359.4485Oklahoma StateB121324772
368.3375BYUInd1285354
378.3083UCLAP121254246
388.0064BaylorB121104653
397.7077CaliforniaP121285146
407.1164MinnesotaB101347063
417.0063Miami-FloridaACC1337054
426.6760San Diego StateMW1246481
436.5659HoustonAAC1357672
446.3357Georgia TechACC1155854
455.8953OregonP121035027
465.7852South FloridaAAC1247272
474.5641TulsaAAC1046363
484.3835Kansas StateB121137844
494.0036VanderbiltSEC1147836
503.8935DukeACC1006536
RGWIP-NTeamConfPNWinsLosses
513.2032Western KentuckyCUSA996773
523.0030South CarolinaSEC1128255
532.5623WyomingMW896663
532.5623IdahoSBC12810554
552.4024TexasB121058155
562.3819NavyAAC947562
572.1119Oregon StateP12725318
582.0016TCUB12897344
591.6715MarylandB10796445
601.3312MemphisAAC988654
611.0010KentuckySEC998955
611.009ArizonaP12675818
630.303ToledoMAC939082
640.222Boston CollegeACC878536
650.000Central MichiganMAC818155
650.000Texas TechB12777736
650.000KansasB120009
650.000Fresno StateMW0009
69-0.11-1North Carolina StateACC939445
70-0.22-2Air ForceMW818363
71-0.30-3Notre DameND798246
72-0.56-5Old DominionCUSA899463
73-0.78-7Michigan StateB10687527
74-1.22-11SyracuseACC708136
75-1.70-17Louisiana TechCUSA678473
RGWIP-NTeamConfPNWinsLosses
76-1.78-16Mississippi StateSEC829836
77-1.88-15South AlabamaSBC688335
78-1.89-17RutgersB10547118
79-2.13-17Arkansas StateSBC759253
80-2.33-21New MexicoMW658663
81-2.33-21MissouriSEC658627
82-2.56-23IllinoisB10648727
83-2.67-24SMUAAC7710145
84-2.70-27IndianaB107610355
85-3.00-27CincinnatiAAC618836
86-3.10-31Appalachian StateSBC10613773
87-3.11-28East CarolinaAAC568427
88-3.33-30Wake ForestACC7210254
89-3.56-32UCFAAC8611854
90-3.67-33VirginiaACC659827
91-4.10-41Miami-OhioMAC6510655
92-4.11-37North TexasCUSA508736
93-4.22-38Middle Tenn StateCUSA6710554
94-4.60-46Eastern MichiganMAC8312955
95-4.78-43Colorado StateMW6110445
96-4.90-49Northern IllinoisMAC5610546
97-5.11-46TempleAAC8112763
98-5.30-53HawaiiMW419437
99-5.56-50PurdueB105110127
100-5.78-52Kent StateMAC469827
RGWIP-NTeamConfPNWinsLosses
101-5.89-53Georgia SouthernSBC5110436
102-6.56-59Iowa StateB12339227
103-6.67-60TulaneAAC339327
104-7.00-63Southern MissCUSA5812145
105-7.33-66ConnecticutAAC4611227
106-7.78-70UL MonroeSBC4211236
107-8.33-75UNLVMW5312836
108-8.78-79NevadaMW2310227
109-9.30-93Ball StateMAC2511837
109-9.30-93Florida IntlCUSA2912237
111-9.33-84New Mexico StateSBC2911327
112-9.44-85ArmyInd5313845
113-9.88-79Texas StateSBC2310217
114-10.11-91Utah StateMW1710827
115-10.25-82UL LafayetteSBC4012235
116-10.33-93MassachusettsMAC1610918
117-10.40-104Bowling GreenMAC2412828
118-10.44-94San Jose StateMW3412827
119-10.56-95Texas-San AntonioCUSA4313845
120-10.67-96BuffaloMAC3012627
120-10.67-96MarshallCUSA2211827
122-10.70-107OhioMAC7718464
123-11.22-101Georgia StateSBC1211318
124-12.11-109RiceCUSA811718
125-12.50-125AkronMAC6418946
RGWIP-NTeamConfPNWinsLosses
126-13.00-117UTEPCUSA2113827
127-14.44-130Florida AtlanticCUSA1714727
128-15.22-137UNC-CharlotteCUSA2716436
© Copyright 2016, Paul Kislanko