In a pleasant little book The Numbers Behind Numb3rs, Keith Devlin and Gary Lorden talk about the real mathematics behind the TV show. In the chapter Connecting the Dots there's a section entitled "A New Kind of War, A New Kind of Math" in which they write
... In using techniques of graph theory and network analysis to analyze social networks, such as terrorist networks, mathematicians have developed a specialized subdiscipline known as Social Network Analysis (SNA).They go on to explain some of the metrics that result from this "subdiscipline" and how they are used.
When I read that my immediate reaction was "what is new about that?" It's only a "subdiscipline" because they gave new names to things people who studied networks had been counting all along. No doubt they've developed better tools (and have supercomputers to allow them to apply them on a very large scale) but they're not doing anything fundamentally different from what people who study graphs have done since Euler's time.
Sports ratings systems are all about network analysis, if not graph theory. The "graph" is the set of vertices (teams) and edges (games played.) The graph describes a (connected) network when there is a way to connect every vertex to every other vertex by following edges that begin at the first and end at the other. The number of edges traversed is the path length between the two vertices.
Ratings are actually metrics on the directed games graph. We may be able to connect all the teams with an "A played B played ... played Z" chain (A⇔Z) in which case Z⇔A is the same chain in reverse order but what is useful is "A beat B ... beat Z" (A⇒Z) and there may not even be a Z⇒A chain. Regardless of its algorithm, any rating is essentially the same as assigning a weight to A→B for all games in which team A won and applying the weights to come up with a rating for each team.
We can use some of the same principles used to track down terrorists to figure out which games have had the most impact on advanced rating systems. Start with the 1A Directed Games Graph through week 11. There are 128 vertices (the teams) and 583 edges (games.) Define A⇒B to be the set of all paths beginning with "A beat ..." and ending with "... beat B" that includes the shortest such path and all other such paths of the same length. Consider A⇒B to be a winning path if it is shorter than B⇒A; is the same length with more elements or if there are the same number of paths of the same length in both directions. Otherwise consider it a losing path.
For the Second Order Winning Percentage we make a distinction between wins and ties. There the measurements are comparisons of vertices. I choose the weaker definition of winning path to measure the contribution of edges.When we count up all of the paths in any ⇒ set we find that the 583 games result in 22,005 A beat B beat ... chains, 12,281 "winning" and 9,724 "losing."
If we label the edges naturally as winner→loser we can count how many of each kind of path each game contributes to. For instance, the game that is included in the most paths is
Pittsburgh→Penn State
which is a part of 1801 paths. Interestingly more than ¾ (1395) of those are losing paths. In fact, the 583 games appear in the 22005 paths a total of 101,601 times – 56,476 times in a losing path compared to 45,125 in winning paths.
And that suggests there might be some metrics we can form from the measurements. To begin define a Significance Index (SI) as the number of times a game appears in a losing chain divided by the number of times it appears in a winning chain. (The latter is always > 0 since x→y itself is a winning chain of length one.)
171 of the 583 games (29.3%) contribute more to losing paths than winning. These are the games that based purely upon the directed games graph "should have" been won by the other team. Using SI (descending) to order them, they are listed below, with All, InWin and InLoss broken out by the position in the path where the game occurs.
Significance Index has the full report for all games.
SI All InWin InLoss Game _1_ _2_ _3_ _4_ _5_ _6_ _7_ _8_ _9_ _10_ _11_ 7.24 404 49 355 Wake Forest→Duke 53 (17-36) 39 (6-33) 60 (6-54) 142 (9-133) 69 (11-58) 39 (0-39) 2 (0-2) 5.92 810 117 693 Boise State→Washington State 48 (33-15) 19 (9-10) 37 (14-23) 111 (28-83) 205 (24-181) 238 (9-229) 134 (0-134) 16 (0-16) 2 (0-2) 5.14 313 51 262 Utah→Southern California 31 (26-5) 10 (4-6) 15 (5-10) 17 (4-13) 28 (8-20) 56 (4-52) 73 (0-73) 58 (0-58) 22 (0-22) 3 (0-3) 4.88 194 33 161 Ohio State→Northwestern 31 (23-8) 5 (2-3) 1 (1-0) 4 (1-3) 9 (3-6) 29 (3-26) 39 (0-39) 36 (0-36) 26 (0-26) 10 (0-10) 4 (0-4) 4.68 460 81 379 Kentucky→South Carolina 44 (27-17) 43 (15-28) 105 (15-90) 123 (10-113) 104 (10-94) 31 (4-27) 10 (0-10) 4.67 459 81 378 Penn State→Iowa 21 (18-3) 16 (12-4) 28 (16-12) 41 (15-26) 90 (17-73) 102 (3-99) 77 (0-77) 56 (0-56) 20 (0-20) 8 (0-8) 4.64 841 149 692 Penn State→Ohio State 58 (48-10) 27 (22-5) 55 (29-26) 78 (23-55) 156 (26-130) 161 (1-160) 146 (0-146) 104 (0-104) 40 (0-40) 16 (0-16) 4.53 365 66 299 Navy→Notre Dame 51 (24-27) 40 (18-22) 67 (8-59) 111 (12-99) 71 (4-67) 23 (0-23) 2 (0-2) 4.46 568 104 464 UNC-Charlotte→Southern Miss 107 (13-94) 127 (13-114) 179 (32-147) 101 (41-60) 41 (4-37) 12 (1-11) 1 (0-1) 4.31 340 64 276 Washington State→Stanford 45 (36-9) 26 (13-13) 6 (2-4) 14 (6-8) 39 (6-33) 71 (1-70) 83 (0-83) 49 (0-49) 6 (0-6) 1 (0-1) 4.10 775 152 623 Miami-Florida→Pittsburgh 68 (37-31) 53 (17-36) 132 (37-95) 214 (44-170) 200 (17-183) 60 (0-60) 36 (0-36) 12 (0-12) 3.99 1287 258 1029 Wyoming→Boise State 58 (29-29) 106 (49-57) 212 (71-141) 332 (76-256) 347 (28-319) 202 (5-197) 27 (0-27) 3 (0-3) 3.92 871 177 694 UL Lafayette→South Alabama 98 (25-73) 210 (51-159) 205 (54-151) 210 (41-169) 111 (6-105) 35 (0-35) 2 (0-2) 3.89 651 133 518 Vanderbilt→Georgia 95 (46-49) 134 (45-89) 70 (15-55) 109 (12-97) 102 (4-98) 104 (11-93) 31 (0-31) 4 (0-4) 2 (0-2) 3.79 1074 224 850 Southern Miss→Kentucky 110 (36-74) 265 (61-204) 258 (34-224) 268 (54-214) 123 (39-84) 43 (0-43) 7 (0-7) 3.78 803 168 635 South Carolina→Tennessee 85 (46-39) 87 (52-35) 70 (25-45) 196 (19-177) 192 (16-176) 124 (10-114) 33 (0-33) 16 (0-16) 3.77 248 52 196 Kentucky→Mississippi State 28 (13-15) 29 (17-12) 40 (10-30) 58 (4-54) 63 (6-57) 21 (2-19) 9 (0-9) 3.69 389 83 306 Ohio→Miami-Ohio 66 (21-45) 105 (20-85) 147 (21-126) 48 (18-30) 9 (2-7) 10 (1-9) 4 (0-4) 3.57 475 104 371 Kent State→Central Michigan 95 (30-65) 110 (39-71) 103 (20-83) 99 (14-85) 43 (1-42) 17 (0-17) 8 (0-8) 3.54 968 213 755 Oklahoma State→Pittsburgh 76 (52-24) 110 (50-60) 234 (71-163) 272 (29-243) 192 (11-181) 84 (0-84) 3.48 704 157 547 San Diego State→California 81 (47-34) 33 (17-16) 75 (32-43) 153 (43-110) 137 (12-125) 145 (6-139) 67 (0-67) 13 (0-13) 3.44 1801 406 1395 Pittsburgh→Penn State 67 (55-12) 168 (103-65) 204 (91-113) 363 (112-251) 377 (40-337) 298 (5-293) 212 (0-212) 80 (0-80) 32 (0-32) 3.41 829 188 641 Pittsburgh→Clemson 48 (36-12) 55 (30-25) 70 (29-41) 175 (43-132) 221 (36-185) 129 (14-115) 89 (0-89) 30 (0-30) 12 (0-12) 3.37 293 67 226 Kentucky→Vanderbilt 56 (23-33) 32 (14-18) 52 (8-44) 62 (6-56) 67 (13-54) 18 (3-15) 4 (0-4) 2 (0-2) 3.35 239 55 184 Ohio State→Nebraska 31 (30-1) 8 (8-0) 6 (4-2) 15 (4-11) 22 (4-18) 42 (5-37) 39 (0-39) 36 (0-36) 26 (0-26) 10 (0-10) 4 (0-4) SI All InWin InLoss Game _1_ _2_ _3_ _4_ _5_ _6_ _7_ _8_ _9_ _10_ _11_ 3.33 459 106 353 Akron→Kent State 71 (17-54) 147 (26-121) 114 (25-89) 74 (23-51) 41 (14-27) 12 (1-11) 3.31 608 141 467 California→Utah 56 (35-21) 79 (44-35) 48 (21-27) 47 (19-28) 95 (19-76) 119 (1-118) 109 (2-107) 47 (0-47) 8 (0-8) 3.30 215 50 165 Ohio State→Wisconsin 43 (37-6) 14 (7-7) 1 (1-0) 4 (1-3) 9 (0-9) 29 (4-25) 39 (0-39) 36 (0-36) 26 (0-26) 10 (0-10) 4 (0-4) 3.22 920 218 702 South Alabama→Mississippi State 72 (28-44) 289 (72-217) 296 (72-224) 163 (37-126) 76 (8-68) 24 (1-23) 3.22 194 46 148 Clemson→Louisville 27 (23-4) 4 (3-1) 6 (1-5) 9 (2-7) 25 (7-18) 47 (4-43) 36 (6-30) 26 (0-26) 10 (0-10) 4 (0-4) 3.15 274 66 208 Missouri→Vanderbilt 77 (23-54) 56 (21-35) 69 (12-57) 25 (4-21) 26 (5-21) 17 (1-16) 2 (0-2) 2 (0-2) 3.02 181 45 136 Auburn→LSU 15 (12-3) 10 (9-1) 11 (4-7) 15 (4-11) 18 (6-12) 40 (5-35) 49 (5-44) 15 (0-15) 8 (0-8) 2.94 185 47 138 Ball State→Buffalo 90 (10-80) 80 (28-52) 11 (7-4) 4 (2-2) 2.92 623 159 464 Virginia Tech→Pittsburgh 82 (53-29) 97 (49-48) 152 (56-96) 54 (1-53) 36 (0-36) 106 (0-106) 72 (0-72) 24 (0-24) 2.91 332 85 247 Akron→Miami-Ohio 105 (24-81) 59 (12-47) 100 (21-79) 48 (24-24) 16 (3-13) 4 (1-3) 2.88 411 106 305 Arkansas State→South Alabama 95 (37-58) 134 (28-106) 98 (30-68) 51 (11-40) 29 (0-29) 4 (0-4) 2.87 151 39 112 Wake Forest→Syracuse 38 (12-26) 7 (2-5) 9 (6-3) 31 (9-22) 38 (10-28) 25 (0-25) 3 (0-3) 2.80 468 123 345 San Jose State→UNLV 97 (18-79) 117 (35-82) 156 (49-107) 61 (16-45) 27 (5-22) 9 (0-9) 1 (0-1) 2.80 1537 404 1133 Central Michigan→Oklahoma State 87 (39-48) 255 (114-141) 395 (117-278) 411 (102-309) 266 (31-235) 78 (1-77) 33 (0-33) 10 (0-10) 2 (0-2) 2.66 289 79 210 Rice→UNC-Charlotte 125 (9-116) 80 (18-62) 51 (27-24) 26 (18-8) 7 (7-0) 2.65 73 20 53 Air Force→Utah State 23 (6-17) 18 (1-17) 23 (8-15) 8 (4-4) 1 (1-0) 2.64 502 138 364 North Carolina→Pittsburgh 53 (35-18) 66 (36-30) 112 (44-68) 126 (23-103) 40 (0-40) 81 (0-81) 12 (0-12) 12 (0-12) 2.63 174 48 126 UNC-Charlotte→Marshall 56 (4-52) 79 (12-67) 22 (17-5) 13 (13-0) 1 (1-0) 2 (1-1) 1 (0-1) 2.61 513 142 371 Tennessee→Virginia Tech 53 (48-5) 87 (62-25) 61 (19-42) 44 (10-34) 139 (3-136) 102 (0-102) 27 (0-27) 2.61 256 71 185 Clemson→Auburn 36 (33-3) 17 (10-7) 26 (12-14) 29 (8-21) 72 (6-66) 56 (2-54) 11 (0-11) 9 (0-9) 2.59 592 165 427 Miami-Ohio→Central Michigan 65 (25-40) 159 (50-109) 156 (55-101) 154 (30-124) 35 (5-30) 14 (0-14) 6 (0-6) 3 (0-3) 2.57 471 132 339 Middle Tenn State→Missouri 72 (16-56) 133 (23-110) 104 (33-71) 81 (29-52) 55 (26-29) 21 (5-16) 5 (0-5) 2.51 144 41 103 Tennessee→Florida 26 (21-5) 5 (4-1) 3 (0-3) 4 (1-3) 15 (4-11) 30 (6-24) 41 (5-36) 12 (0-12) 8 (0-8) 2.50 126 36 90 Washington State→Arizona State 25 (24-1) 7 (6-1) 3 (2-1) 4 (0-4) 12 (3-9) 22 (1-21) 31 (0-31) 19 (0-19) 3 (0-3) 2.49 611 175 436 Duke→North Carolina 100 (52-48) 119 (48-71) 99 (39-60) 98 (31-67) 122 (5-117) 51 (0-51) 22 (0-22) SI All InWin InLoss Game _1_ _2_ _3_ _4_ _5_ _6_ _7_ _8_ _9_ _10_ _11_ 2.45 576 167 409 Marshall→Middle Tenn State 112 (11-101) 165 (50-115) 157 (54-103) 99 (43-56) 32 (9-23) 11 (0-11) 2.43 837 244 593 Mississippi State→Texas A&M 104 (41-63) 91 (47-44) 137 (66-71) 176 (64-112) 186 (26-160) 109 (0-109) 27 (0-27) 7 (0-7) 2.41 696 204 492 Miami-Ohio→Eastern Michigan 57 (21-36) 166 (67-99) 236 (69-167) 180 (31-149) 50 (16-34) 5 (0-5) 2 (0-2) 2.40 102 30 72 South Florida→Syracuse 43 (16-27) 28 (3-25) 26 (7-19) 1 (1-0) 4 (3-1) 2.40 214 63 151 Stanford→Southern California 28 (25-3) 19 (16-3) 6 (5-1) 6 (3-3) 14 (7-7) 30 (7-23) 46 (0-46) 43 (0-43) 22 (0-22) 2.39 970 286 684 Buffalo→Army 85 (20-65) 362 (104-258) 313 (124-189) 203 (38-165) 7 (0-7) 2.35 174 52 122 Old Dominion→Southern Miss 65 (18-47) 38 (8-30) 28 (7-21) 39 (18-21) 2 (1-1) 2 (0-2) 2.34 869 260 609 UNLV→Wyoming 122 (34-88) 177 (67-110) 226 (87-139) 226 (61-165) 96 (11-85) 18 (0-18) 4 (0-4) 2.29 336 102 234 Temple→SMU 37 (21-16) 29 (15-14) 46 (17-29) 118 (30-88) 70 (18-52) 34 (1-33) 2 (0-2) 2.29 474 144 330 New Mexico State→UL Lafayette 58 (11-47) 49 (15-34) 154 (55-99) 157 (55-102) 49 (7-42) 7 (1-6) 2.22 422 131 291 Syracuse→Virginia Tech 90 (35-55) 134 (41-93) 56 (13-43) 70 (26-44) 54 (16-38) 15 (0-15) 3 (0-3) 2.21 1011 315 696 South Alabama→San Diego State 68 (32-36) 157 (81-76) 249 (112-137) 200 (57-143) 200 (29-171) 106 (4-102) 30 (0-30) 1 (0-1) 2.16 988 313 675 Eastern Michigan→Wyoming 80 (42-38) 146 (79-67) 268 (110-158) 299 (68-231) 179 (14-165) 16 (0-16) 2.15 1208 383 825 Notre Dame→Miami-Florida 88 (36-52) 204 (97-107) 373 (150-223) 341 (92-249) 104 (8-96) 75 (0-75) 21 (0-21) 2 (0-2) 2.12 428 137 291 Bowling Green→Akron 125 (13-112) 127 (42-85) 65 (32-33) 74 (41-33) 35 (9-26) 2 (0-2) 2.09 346 112 234 Connecticut→Virginia 103 (24-79) 149 (54-95) 49 (22-27) 31 (9-22) 11 (3-8) 3 (0-3) 2.09 358 116 242 Florida Atlantic→UTEP 122 (16-106) 121 (54-67) 95 (36-59) 20 (10-10) 2.08 410 133 277 Oklahoma State→West Virginia 38 (28-10) 27 (15-12) 67 (37-30) 72 (26-46) 100 (27-73) 63 (0-63) 25 (0-25) 13 (0-13) 4 (0-4) 1 (0-1) 2.08 225 73 152 Texas A&M→Auburn 21 (17-4) 26 (11-15) 16 (4-12) 30 (10-20) 55 (19-36) 59 (12-47) 14 (0-14) 4 (0-4) 2.07 697 227 470 Mississippi State→South Carolina 67 (34-33) 93 (56-37) 212 (54-158) 207 (53-154) 83 (29-54) 22 (1-21) 13 (0-13) 2.00 90 30 60 Washington State→California 21 (21-0) 5 (5-0) 4 (2-2) 6 (1-5) 13 (0-13) 23 (1-22) 16 (0-16) 2 (0-2) 1.92 266 91 175 Southern California→Washington 65 (52-13) 16 (14-2) 10 (7-3) 9 (5-4) 9 (4-5) 15 (6-9) 31 (3-28) 46 (0-46) 45 (0-45) 19 (0-19) 1 (0-1) 1.90 87 30 57 Northern Illinois→Bowling Green 62 (6-56) 5 (5-0) 7 (6-1) 9 (9-0) 4 (4-0) 1.87 227 79 148 Middle Tenn State→Louisiana Tech 32 (14-18) 18 (7-11) 41 (17-24) 62 (26-36) 54 (11-43) 16 (4-12) 4 (0-4) 1.86 146 51 95 Wake Forest→Virginia 27 (12-15) 46 (17-29) 26 (11-15) 14 (7-7) 21 (4-17) 10 (0-10) 2 (0-2) SI All InWin InLoss Game _1_ _2_ _3_ _4_ _5_ _6_ _7_ _8_ _9_ _10_ _11_ 1.85 1051 369 682 Army→Wake Forest 79 (15-64) 107 (40-67) 289 (102-187) 333 (148-185) 219 (64-155) 24 (0-24) 1.82 335 119 216 UL Monroe→South Alabama 101 (26-75) 114 (57-57) 47 (15-32) 51 (14-37) 20 (7-13) 2 (0-2) 1.81 73 26 47 Washington State→Oregon 12 (12-0) 5 (4-1) 2 (1-1) 2 (1-1) 8 (3-5) 17 (5-12) 17 (0-17) 10 (0-10) 1.80 417 149 268 Houston→Oklahoma 67 (36-31) 44 (18-26) 52 (40-12) 41 (17-24) 65 (22-43) 94 (16-78) 40 (0-40) 13 (0-13) 1 (0-1) 1.78 111 40 71 Colorado State→UNLV 64 (15-49) 33 (14-19) 10 (8-2) 2 (2-0) 2 (1-1) 1.75 179 65 114 Middle Tenn State→North Texas 31 (16-15) 40 (10-30) 57 (17-40) 35 (16-19) 9 (5-4) 5 (1-4) 2 (0-2) 1.74 233 85 148 Boise State→BYU 58 (38-20) 27 (10-17) 42 (15-27) 47 (15-32) 36 (7-29) 14 (0-14) 7 (0-7) 2 (0-2) 1.73 221 81 140 Florida Intl→UNC-Charlotte 65 (5-60) 85 (22-63) 43 (37-6) 15 (14-1) 10 (3-7) 3 (0-3) 1.73 221 81 140 North Carolina State→Notre Dame 53 (22-31) 69 (25-44) 75 (20-55) 13 (10-3) 8 (4-4) 2 (0-2) 1 (0-1) 1.71 754 278 476 New Mexico→Air Force 77 (31-46) 158 (58-100) 239 (106-133) 182 (65-117) 80 (17-63) 18 (1-17) 1.71 376 139 237 UTEP→Texas-San Antonio 83 (6-77) 109 (19-90) 99 (56-43) 66 (46-20) 14 (12-2) 5 (0-5) 1.70 54 20 34 San Diego State→UNLV 15 (11-4) 5 (1-4) 18 (4-14) 15 (4-11) 1 (0-1) 1.70 771 286 485 Texas State→Ohio 125 (22-103) 310 (83-227) 162 (107-55) 84 (48-36) 75 (24-51) 15 (2-13) 1.69 245 91 154 Georgia State→Texas State 125 (11-114) 46 (30-16) 27 (18-9) 29 (17-12) 17 (15-2) 1 (0-1) 1.69 210 78 132 Northern Illinois→Buffalo 116 (23-93) 61 (39-22) 20 (8-12) 10 (8-2) 3 (0-3) 1.68 177 66 111 Toledo→Arkansas State 32 (14-18) 46 (16-30) 48 (23-25) 38 (10-28) 8 (2-6) 5 (1-4) 1.68 501 187 314 Tulane→UL Lafayette 113 (24-89) 197 (74-123) 137 (57-80) 47 (27-20) 7 (5-2) 1.68 431 161 270 Iowa→Michigan 79 (66-13) 60 (51-9) 45 (33-12) 16 (5-11) 26 (2-24) 59 (4-55) 61 (0-61) 41 (0-41) 30 (0-30) 10 (0-10) 4 (0-4) 1.66 372 140 232 North Carolina→Florida State 43 (35-8) 50 (30-20) 67 (33-34) 63 (26-37) 54 (14-40) 54 (2-52) 30 (0-30) 11 (0-11) 1.64 240 91 149 Ohio→Buffalo 51 (23-28) 52 (20-32) 105 (25-80) 32 (23-9) 1.64 174 66 108 Southern California→Colorado 56 (44-12) 14 (12-2) 8 (6-2) 7 (2-5) 8 (1-7) 12 (1-11) 24 (0-24) 27 (0-27) 11 (0-11) 6 (0-6) 1 (0-1) 1.63 189 72 117 Auburn→Mississippi 57 (38-19) 17 (15-2) 14 (7-7) 18 (5-13) 17 (3-14) 30 (4-26) 26 (0-26) 9 (0-9) 1 (0-1) 1.62 68 26 42 Hawaii→San Jose State 20 (2-18) 27 (7-20) 18 (14-4) 3 (3-0) 1.61 1069 410 659 Air Force→Navy 62 (37-25) 141 (52-89) 283 (112-171) 357 (181-176) 166 (28-138) 53 (0-53) 7 (0-7) 1.60 91 35 56 UCF→Connecticut 42 (12-30) 23 (11-12) 21 (7-14) 5 (5-0) SI All InWin InLoss Game _1_ _2_ _3_ _4_ _5_ _6_ _7_ _8_ _9_ _10_ _11_ 1.60 148 57 91 Kent State→Buffalo 49 (21-28) 46 (24-22) 46 (9-37) 4 (3-1) 2 (0-2) 1 (0-1) 1.58 294 114 180 Texas-San Antonio→North Texas 55 (12-43) 81 (30-51) 91 (34-57) 45 (26-19) 17 (10-7) 5 (2-3) 1.57 278 108 170 Penn State→Minnesota 20 (19-1) 15 (12-3) 35 (18-17) 39 (21-18) 49 (28-21) 46 (10-36) 34 (0-34) 26 (0-26) 10 (0-10) 4 (0-4) 1.57 180 70 110 Toledo→Central Michigan 62 (37-25) 55 (18-37) 51 (13-38) 5 (2-3) 4 (0-4) 3 (0-3) 1.57 162 63 99 Oklahoma→Baylor 55 (39-16) 28 (12-16) 25 (5-20) 12 (5-7) 9 (2-7) 14 (0-14) 13 (0-13) 5 (0-5) 1 (0-1) 1.56 479 187 292 Buffalo→Akron 71 (11-60) 159 (40-119) 138 (72-66) 79 (41-38) 31 (23-8) 1 (0-1) 1.54 877 345 532 UTEP→New Mexico State 77 (15-62) 277 (101-176) 318 (144-174) 177 (71-106) 27 (14-13) 1 (0-1) 1.54 995 392 603 Army→Temple 57 (20-37) 123 (63-60) 312 (126-186) 302 (132-170) 184 (51-133) 17 (0-17) 1.53 351 139 212 Temple→South Florida 45 (14-31) 42 (18-24) 40 (25-15) 90 (38-52) 82 (31-51) 48 (13-35) 4 (0-4) 1.52 194 77 117 Oklahoma State→Texas 28 (23-5) 17 (13-4) 26 (17-9) 43 (13-30) 45 (9-36) 26 (2-24) 8 (0-8) 1 (0-1) 1.52 199 79 120 South Carolina→Vanderbilt 41 (22-19) 27 (19-8) 18 (11-7) 48 (10-38) 53 (14-39) 12 (3-9) 1.52 234 93 141 Georgia→Auburn 45 (35-10) 50 (34-16) 51 (17-34) 16 (7-9) 21 (0-21) 30 (0-30) 16 (0-16) 5 (0-5) 1.51 299 119 180 Ohio→Toledo 92 (33-59) 33 (13-20) 47 (22-25) 43 (29-14) 46 (17-29) 34 (5-29) 4 (0-4) 1.50 368 147 221 Texas-San Antonio→Southern Miss 63 (14-49) 110 (26-84) 109 (56-53) 57 (42-15) 23 (8-15) 6 (1-5) 1.50 150 60 90 Auburn→Arkansas 32 (30-2) 20 (16-4) 18 (12-6) 20 (2-18) 13 (0-13) 29 (0-29) 15 (0-15) 2 (0-2) 1 (0-1) 1.49 403 162 241 Utah State→Arkansas State 124 (18-106) 97 (46-51) 61 (35-26) 59 (36-23) 29 (20-9) 26 (7-19) 7 (0-7) 1.48 171 69 102 San Jose State→Nevada 65 (14-51) 78 (29-49) 25 (23-2) 3 (3-0) 1.46 64 26 38 Oklahoma→TCU 17 (14-3) 2 (2-0) 3 (2-1) 7 (5-2) 7 (3-4) 13 (0-13) 11 (0-11) 4 (0-4) 1.45 27 11 16 Houston→Tulane 27 (11-16) 1.44 210 86 124 Temple→Cincinnati 42 (16-26) 34 (11-23) 29 (19-10) 48 (30-18) 29 (9-20) 24 (1-23) 4 (0-4) 1.43 199 82 117 TCU→Baylor 68 (30-38) 66 (21-45) 34 (21-13) 13 (7-6) 7 (3-4) 5 (0-5) 4 (0-4) 2 (0-2) 1.41 299 124 175 UNLV→Hawaii 61 (18-43) 128 (59-69) 43 (19-24) 42 (21-21) 23 (7-16) 2 (0-2) 1.41 176 73 103 UL Lafayette→Texas State 48 (11-37) 36 (17-19) 26 (15-11) 43 (19-24) 22 (11-11) 1 (0-1) 1.40 72 30 42 Washington State→UCLA 33 (27-6) 1 (1-0) 1 (0-1) 2 (0-2) 8 (2-6) 11 (0-11) 11 (0-11) 5 (0-5) 1.39 122 51 71 Indiana→Michigan State 51 (13-38) 22 (17-5) 4 (3-1) 9 (5-4) 18 (10-8) 11 (3-8) 5 (0-5) 2 (0-2) SI All InWin InLoss Game _1_ _2_ _3_ _4_ _5_ _6_ _7_ _8_ _9_ _10_ _11_ 1.39 628 263 365 North Texas→Army 91 (42-49) 183 (92-91) 192 (96-96) 128 (33-95) 34 (0-34) 1.39 303 127 176 Florida Intl→UTEP 82 (20-62) 140 (50-90) 59 (45-14) 15 (12-3) 6 (0-6) 1 (0-1) 1.37 242 102 140 Texas A&M→Arkansas 33 (30-3) 32 (20-12) 21 (14-7) 36 (15-21) 44 (16-28) 43 (7-36) 24 (0-24) 6 (0-6) 3 (0-3) 1.36 331 140 191 Navy→Houston 31 (24-7) 25 (23-2) 32 (18-14) 63 (27-36) 110 (45-65) 52 (3-49) 16 (0-16) 2 (0-2) 1.36 269 114 155 Louisiana Tech→Western Kentucky 60 (19-41) 43 (21-22) 42 (30-12) 33 (22-11) 48 (19-29) 35 (3-32) 6 (0-6) 2 (0-2) 1.36 535 227 308 Georgia→North Carolina 63 (56-7) 125 (81-44) 186 (81-105) 33 (5-28) 64 (4-60) 39 (0-39) 25 (0-25) 1.35 190 81 109 Virginia Tech→North Carolina 47 (29-18) 53 (24-29) 39 (17-22) 23 (8-15) 21 (3-18) 7 (0-7) 1.33 242 104 138 Clemson→Troy 41 (33-8) 14 (13-1) 10 (10-0) 15 (12-3) 34 (18-16) 52 (16-36) 38 (2-36) 24 (0-24) 10 (0-10) 4 (0-4) 1.32 265 114 151 Wyoming→Air Force 54 (30-24) 99 (40-59) 44 (26-18) 36 (14-22) 25 (4-21) 7 (0-7) 1.31 513 222 291 Nevada→Buffalo 124 (23-101) 180 (71-109) 139 (73-66) 61 (54-7) 5 (1-4) 3 (0-3) 1 (0-1) 1.29 897 391 506 New Mexico State→New Mexico 84 (18-66) 220 (106-114) 270 (140-130) 224 (106-118) 93 (21-72) 6 (0-6) 1.28 401 176 225 Baylor→Oklahoma State 85 (56-29) 129 (55-74) 95 (29-66) 67 (34-33) 16 (2-14) 6 (0-6) 3 (0-3) 1.24 280 125 155 Virginia→Duke 80 (24-56) 83 (40-43) 73 (47-26) 27 (11-16) 17 (3-14) 1.24 275 123 152 Massachusetts→Florida Intl 125 (16-109) 49 (38-11) 45 (41-4) 36 (19-17) 16 (5-11) 4 (4-0) 1.24 76 34 42 Louisiana Tech→Texas-San Antonio 24 (6-18) 18 (7-11) 26 (18-8) 8 (3-5) 1.23 145 65 80 Air Force→Colorado State 33 (9-24) 18 (7-11) 33 (18-15) 31 (18-13) 21 (10-11) 8 (3-5) 1 (0-1) 1.23 394 177 217 Cincinnati→Miami-Ohio 96 (35-61) 165 (67-98) 80 (41-39) 49 (32-17) 4 (2-2) 1.23 710 319 391 Virginia→Central Michigan 79 (33-46) 225 (119-106) 264 (124-140) 90 (37-53) 40 (6-34) 12 (0-12) 1.22 284 128 156 Iowa State→San Jose State 124 (33-91) 113 (61-52) 30 (21-9) 9 (9-0) 5 (3-2) 3 (1-2) 1.22 206 93 113 Illinois→Michigan State 83 (32-51) 87 (38-49) 5 (5-0) 16 (9-7) 13 (9-4) 1 (0-1) 1 (0-1) 1.21 31 14 17 Western Kentucky→Middle Tenn State 15 (5-10) 8 (2-6) 5 (4-1) 3 (3-0) 1.21 201 91 110 West Virginia→BYU 45 (41-4) 18 (13-5) 19 (10-9) 42 (20-22) 28 (7-21) 29 (0-29) 18 (0-18) 2 (0-2) 1.21 170 77 93 New Mexico→San Jose State 12 (5-7) 21 (6-15) 47 (17-30) 46 (24-22) 34 (21-13) 10 (4-6) 1.20 183 83 100 Purdue→Illinois 84 (24-60) 12 (10-2) 22 (15-7) 19 (11-8) 16 (13-3) 18 (9-9) 10 (1-9) 2 (0-2) 1.17 141 65 76 California→Oregon 18 (16-2) 20 (15-5) 15 (7-8) 11 (8-3) 24 (12-12) 22 (7-15) 21 (0-21) 9 (0-9) 1 (0-1) SI All InWin InLoss Game _1_ _2_ _3_ _4_ _5_ _6_ _7_ _8_ _9_ _10_ _11_ 1.14 163 76 87 North Carolina→Georgia Tech 33 (23-10) 19 (15-4) 34 (20-14) 37 (15-22) 13 (3-10) 13 (0-13) 9 (0-9) 5 (0-5) 1.14 137 64 73 Pittsburgh→Georgia Tech 29 (19-10) 25 (18-7) 21 (9-12) 38 (17-21) 15 (1-14) 5 (0-5) 4 (0-4) 1.13 83 39 44 Boise State→Oregon State 8 (8-0) 1 (1-0) 2 (2-0) 8 (7-1) 19 (14-5) 24 (6-18) 18 (1-17) 3 (0-3) 1.12 278 131 147 Western Kentucky→Miami-Ohio 66 (33-33) 89 (41-48) 76 (36-40) 32 (17-15) 15 (4-11) 1.12 367 173 194 Texas A&M→UCLA 29 (21-8) 61 (40-21) 68 (43-25) 69 (48-21) 55 (21-34) 46 (0-46) 37 (0-37) 2 (0-2) 1.11 287 136 151 Central Michigan→UNLV 36 (18-18) 53 (24-29) 99 (56-43) 77 (31-46) 19 (7-12) 3 (0-3) 1.11 116 55 61 UNC-Charlotte→Florida Atlantic 35 (10-25) 49 (17-32) 18 (16-2) 10 (10-0) 3 (2-1) 1 (0-1) 1.10 61 29 32 Washington State→Idaho 21 (19-2) 2 (2-0) 1 (0-1) 3 (2-1) 11 (3-8) 13 (3-10) 8 (0-8) 2 (0-2) 1.10 225 107 118 New Mexico→UL Monroe 41 (17-24) 29 (11-18) 70 (31-39) 46 (30-16) 24 (15-9) 14 (3-11) 1 (0-1) 1.10 430 205 225 SMU→Houston 69 (27-42) 94 (71-23) 76 (48-28) 74 (37-37) 84 (20-64) 25 (2-23) 8 (0-8) 1.10 151 72 79 Eastern Michigan→UNC-Charlotte 33 (10-23) 33 (18-15) 49 (28-21) 24 (12-12) 12 (4-8) 1.10 65 31 34 Temple→Connecticut 14 (4-10) 6 (5-1) 5 (4-1) 16 (10-6) 18 (8-10) 6 (0-6) 1.09 94 45 49 Maryland→Michigan State 54 (26-28) 38 (18-20) 1 (1-0) 1 (0-1) 1.08 135 65 70 Florida Atlantic→Rice 42 (1-41) 35 (14-21) 38 (30-8) 20 (20-0) 1.06 66 32 34 Kentucky→Missouri 25 (15-10) 21 (10-11) 20 (7-13) 1.05 78 38 40 San Diego State→Hawaii 31 (23-8) 8 (2-6) 17 (5-12) 14 (5-9) 8 (3-5) 1.05 275 134 141 Akron→Marshall 31 (11-20) 77 (37-40) 85 (39-46) 49 (28-21) 27 (15-12) 6 (4-2) 1.05 80 39 41 Georgia→South Carolina 29 (26-3) 11 (7-4) 9 (4-5) 11 (1-10) 9 (0-9) 8 (1-7) 3 (0-3) 1.03 181 89 92 Michigan→Colorado 31 (31-0) 15 (15-0) 23 (22-1) 23 (20-3) 11 (1-10) 17 (0-17) 30 (0-30) 22 (0-22) 5 (0-5) 4 (0-4) 1.03 187 92 95 Miami-Florida→Georgia Tech 44 (28-16) 20 (12-8) 27 (18-9) 45 (22-23) 33 (11-22) 10 (1-9) 7 (0-7) 1 (0-1) 1.02 93 46 47 South Florida→Memphis 33 (20-13) 7 (6-1) 3 (3-0) 10 (7-3) 23 (7-16) 12 (3-9) 5 (0-5)
where
GWI(x) = Px − Nx Winsx + Lossesx
- Px
- is the number of paths x→...→y where the strength of x⇒y is ≥ than that of y⇒x
- Nx
- is the number of paths x→...→y where the strength of x⇒y is < than that of y⇒x
- Winsx
- is the number of →s that originate at x
- Lossesx
- is the number of →s that terminate at x (x←)
Note that for this purpose Px and Nx count only paths that originate at x: the paths generated by team x's wins. The number of losses is included in the denomninator to keep teams with very few wins from having an artificially high value. Through week 11, the list conforms pretty much to intuition.
R GWI P-N Team Conf P N Wins Losses 1 24.22 218 Western Michigan MAC 218 0 9 0 2 22.10 221 Southern California P12 269 48 7 3 3 21.22 191 Washington P12 200 9 8 1 4 20.80 208 Alabama SEC 208 0 10 0 5 19.33 174 Northwestern B10 180 6 5 4 6 18.90 189 Nebraska B10 202 13 8 2 7 17.70 177 Wisconsin B10 184 7 8 2 8 17.38 139 LSU SEC 165 26 5 3 9 16.78 151 Florida SEC 171 20 7 2 9 16.78 151 Colorado P12 166 15 7 2 11 16.67 150 Clemson ACC 188 38 8 1 12 16.60 166 Michigan B10 170 4 9 1 13 16.20 162 Ohio State B10 187 25 9 1 14 15.60 156 Louisville ACC 182 26 9 1 15 15.11 136 Washington State P12 154 18 8 1 15 15.11 136 Georgia SEC 165 29 5 4 17 15.10 151 Stanford P12 162 11 7 3 18 14.78 133 Florida State ACC 161 28 6 3 19 14.44 130 Mississippi SEC 159 29 4 5 20 14.33 129 Iowa B10 149 20 6 3 21 14.22 128 Tennessee SEC 166 38 6 3 22 13.89 125 Utah P12 153 28 7 2 23 13.60 136 Penn State B10 164 28 8 2 24 13.25 106 West Virginia B12 144 38 7 1 25 13.11 118 Texas A&M SEC 143 25 6 3 R GWI P-N Team Conf P N Wins Losses 26 12.78 115 Arizona State P12 144 29 4 5 27 12.00 108 Arkansas SEC 161 53 5 4 28 11.67 105 North Carolina ACC 143 38 6 3 29 11.33 102 Pittsburgh ACC 139 37 5 4 30 11.30 113 Boise State MW 154 41 9 1 30 11.30 113 Auburn SEC 168 55 7 3 32 11.13 89 Troy SBC 149 60 7 1 33 10.33 93 Virginia Tech ACC 160 67 6 3 34 10.20 102 Oklahoma B12 144 42 8 2 35 9.44 85 Oklahoma State B12 132 47 7 2 36 8.33 75 BYU Ind 128 53 5 4 37 8.30 83 UCLA P12 125 42 4 6 38 8.00 64 Baylor B12 110 46 5 3 39 7.70 77 California P12 128 51 4 6 40 7.11 64 Minnesota B10 134 70 6 3 41 7.00 63 Miami-Florida ACC 133 70 5 4 42 6.67 60 San Diego State MW 124 64 8 1 43 6.56 59 Houston AAC 135 76 7 2 44 6.33 57 Georgia Tech ACC 115 58 5 4 45 5.89 53 Oregon P12 103 50 2 7 46 5.78 52 South Florida AAC 124 72 7 2 47 4.56 41 Tulsa AAC 104 63 6 3 48 4.38 35 Kansas State B12 113 78 4 4 49 4.00 36 Vanderbilt SEC 114 78 3 6 50 3.89 35 Duke ACC 100 65 3 6 R GWI P-N Team Conf P N Wins Losses 51 3.20 32 Western Kentucky CUSA 99 67 7 3 52 3.00 30 South Carolina SEC 112 82 5 5 53 2.56 23 Wyoming MW 89 66 6 3 53 2.56 23 Idaho SBC 128 105 5 4 55 2.40 24 Texas B12 105 81 5 5 56 2.38 19 Navy AAC 94 75 6 2 57 2.11 19 Oregon State P12 72 53 1 8 58 2.00 16 TCU B12 89 73 4 4 59 1.67 15 Maryland B10 79 64 4 5 60 1.33 12 Memphis AAC 98 86 5 4 61 1.00 10 Kentucky SEC 99 89 5 5 61 1.00 9 Arizona P12 67 58 1 8 63 0.30 3 Toledo MAC 93 90 8 2 64 0.22 2 Boston College ACC 87 85 3 6 65 0.00 0 Central Michigan MAC 81 81 5 5 65 0.00 0 Texas Tech B12 77 77 3 6 65 0.00 0 Kansas B12 0 0 0 9 65 0.00 0 Fresno State MW 0 0 0 9 69 -0.11 -1 North Carolina State ACC 93 94 4 5 70 -0.22 -2 Air Force MW 81 83 6 3 71 -0.30 -3 Notre Dame ND 79 82 4 6 72 -0.56 -5 Old Dominion CUSA 89 94 6 3 73 -0.78 -7 Michigan State B10 68 75 2 7 74 -1.22 -11 Syracuse ACC 70 81 3 6 75 -1.70 -17 Louisiana Tech CUSA 67 84 7 3 R GWI P-N Team Conf P N Wins Losses 76 -1.78 -16 Mississippi State SEC 82 98 3 6 77 -1.88 -15 South Alabama SBC 68 83 3 5 78 -1.89 -17 Rutgers B10 54 71 1 8 79 -2.13 -17 Arkansas State SBC 75 92 5 3 80 -2.33 -21 New Mexico MW 65 86 6 3 81 -2.33 -21 Missouri SEC 65 86 2 7 82 -2.56 -23 Illinois B10 64 87 2 7 83 -2.67 -24 SMU AAC 77 101 4 5 84 -2.70 -27 Indiana B10 76 103 5 5 85 -3.00 -27 Cincinnati AAC 61 88 3 6 86 -3.10 -31 Appalachian State SBC 106 137 7 3 87 -3.11 -28 East Carolina AAC 56 84 2 7 88 -3.33 -30 Wake Forest ACC 72 102 5 4 89 -3.56 -32 UCF AAC 86 118 5 4 90 -3.67 -33 Virginia ACC 65 98 2 7 91 -4.10 -41 Miami-Ohio MAC 65 106 5 5 92 -4.11 -37 North Texas CUSA 50 87 3 6 93 -4.22 -38 Middle Tenn State CUSA 67 105 5 4 94 -4.60 -46 Eastern Michigan MAC 83 129 5 5 95 -4.78 -43 Colorado State MW 61 104 4 5 96 -4.90 -49 Northern Illinois MAC 56 105 4 6 97 -5.11 -46 Temple AAC 81 127 6 3 98 -5.30 -53 Hawaii MW 41 94 3 7 99 -5.56 -50 Purdue B10 51 101 2 7 100 -5.78 -52 Kent State MAC 46 98 2 7 R GWI P-N Team Conf P N Wins Losses 101 -5.89 -53 Georgia Southern SBC 51 104 3 6 102 -6.56 -59 Iowa State B12 33 92 2 7 103 -6.67 -60 Tulane AAC 33 93 2 7 104 -7.00 -63 Southern Miss CUSA 58 121 4 5 105 -7.33 -66 Connecticut AAC 46 112 2 7 106 -7.78 -70 UL Monroe SBC 42 112 3 6 107 -8.33 -75 UNLV MW 53 128 3 6 108 -8.78 -79 Nevada MW 23 102 2 7 109 -9.30 -93 Ball State MAC 25 118 3 7 109 -9.30 -93 Florida Intl CUSA 29 122 3 7 111 -9.33 -84 New Mexico State SBC 29 113 2 7 112 -9.44 -85 Army Ind 53 138 4 5 113 -9.88 -79 Texas State SBC 23 102 1 7 114 -10.11 -91 Utah State MW 17 108 2 7 115 -10.25 -82 UL Lafayette SBC 40 122 3 5 116 -10.33 -93 Massachusetts MAC 16 109 1 8 117 -10.40 -104 Bowling Green MAC 24 128 2 8 118 -10.44 -94 San Jose State MW 34 128 2 7 119 -10.56 -95 Texas-San Antonio CUSA 43 138 4 5 120 -10.67 -96 Buffalo MAC 30 126 2 7 120 -10.67 -96 Marshall CUSA 22 118 2 7 122 -10.70 -107 Ohio MAC 77 184 6 4 123 -11.22 -101 Georgia State SBC 12 113 1 8 124 -12.11 -109 Rice CUSA 8 117 1 8 125 -12.50 -125 Akron MAC 64 189 4 6 R GWI P-N Team Conf P N Wins Losses 126 -13.00 -117 UTEP CUSA 21 138 2 7 127 -14.44 -130 Florida Atlantic CUSA 17 147 2 7 128 -15.22 -137 UNC-Charlotte CUSA 27 164 3 6