How Predictive?

Predictive Results for Week Eight

October 23, 2016

The machine predicted 96 games in week eight, with about the same accuracy as week seven for picking correct winners: 69 (71.9 per cent) but only 31 (32.2 per cent) of those won with a margin better than predicted. I would expect a more sophisticated algorithm to do better, considering that only about one out of five division one contests turns out to be a true upset.

Score

Is negative for a correct prediction with MOV greater than predicted.

Correct prediction Score = Predicted MOV − Actual MOV

Incorrect prediction Score = Predicted MOV + Actual MOV

LoTrio

scoring is based upon how closely the predicted score for each team matches the actual score by that team regardless of the game outcome.

| predicted visitor score − actual visitor score | + | predicted home score − actual home score |

Vis	Typ	Home	Pred:	Vscr	Hscr	Actual:	vis	hom	—	Res	AtP	Score	—	ΔV	ΔH	LoTrio
Incarnate Word	at	Abilene Christian		35	34		27	52		Miss	Miss	25.5		8	18	26
Hawaii	at	Air Force		25	40		34	27		Miss	Miss	21.6		9	13	22
Texas A&M	at	Alabama		22	33		14	33		Hit	Hit	-8.1		8	0	9
Idaho	at	Appalachian State		17	36		19	37		Hit	Miss	1.2		2	1	3
Washington State	at	Arizona State		39	29		37	32		Hit	Miss	4.6		2	3	5
North Texas	at	Army		17	33		35	18		Miss	Miss	33		18	15	33
Arkansas	at	Auburn		22	33		3	56		Hit	Hit	-41.6		19	23	42
Mercer	at	Austin Peay		46	21		41	34		Hit	Miss	18.2		5	13	18
Akron	at	Ball State		29	30		35	25		Miss	Miss	11.2		6	5	11
BYU	at	Boise State		23	30		27	28		Hit	Miss	5.6		4	2	6
Syracuse	at	Boston College		27	26		28	20		Hit	Hit	-6.7		1	6	7
Miami-Ohio	at	Bowling Green		23	30		40	26		Miss	Miss	20.3		17	4	20
UC Davis	at	Cal Poly		24	46		16	21		Hit	Miss	16.6		8	25	33
Oregon	at	California		39	42		49	52		Hit	Miss	0.2		10	10	21
Lamar	at	Central Arkansas		20	36		12	22		Hit	Miss	6.4		8	14	22
Presbyterian	at	Charleston Southern		9	54		3	38		Hit	Miss	10.5		6	16	22
VMI	at	Chattanooga		18	39		13	30		Hit	Miss	3.7		5	9	14
East Carolina	at	Cincinnati		28	27		19	31		Miss	Miss	12.9		9	4	13
UCF	at	Connecticut		30	23		24	16		Hit	Hit	-1.1		6	7	13
Stony Brook	at	Delaware		27	20		28	3		Hit	Hit	-17.8		1	17	18
Murray State	at	Eastern Illinois		21	35		40	38		Miss	Miss	15.9		19	3	22
Jacksonville State	at	Eastern Kentucky		38	22		24	7		Hit	Hit	-0.5		14	15	29
Richmond	at	Elon		43	13		35	7		Hit	Miss	1.9		8	6	14
Hampton	at	Florida A&M		24	23		14	31		Miss	Miss	18.1		10	8	18
Louisiana Tech	at	Florida Intl		45	23		44	24		Hit	Miss	2.3		1	1	2
Vis	Typ	Home	Pred:	Vscr	Hscr	Actual:	vis	hom	—	Res	AtP	Score	—	ΔV	ΔH	LoTrio
Kennesaw St	at	Gardner-Webb		21	33		47	39		Miss	Miss	19.7		26	6	32
Tennessee-Martin	at	Georgia State		22	34		6	31		Hit	Hit	-13		16	3	20
North Carolina A&T	at	Howard		56	16		34	7		Hit	Miss	12.7		22	9	31
North Dakota	at	Idaho State		47	16		28	21		Hit	Miss	24.4		19	5	24
Wisconsin	at	Iowa		25	20		17	9		Hit	Hit	-2.9		8	11	19
Oklahoma State	at	Kansas		43	23		44	20		Hit	Hit	-3.4		1	3	3
Texas	at	Kansas State		25	37		21	24		Hit	Miss	9		4	13	18
Ohio	at	Kent State		28	26		14	10		Hit	Hit	-1.3		14	16	30
Mississippi State	at	Kentucky		29	25		38	40		Miss	Miss	5.5		9	15	24
Monmouth NJ	at	Liberty		18	35		28	31		Hit	Miss	13.9		10	4	14
North Carolina State	at	Louisville		25	36		13	43		Hit	Hit	-18.7		12	7	19
Mississippi	at	LSU		26	29		21	38		Hit	Hit	-13.7		5	9	14
UNC-Charlotte	at	Marshall		27	40		27	24		Miss	Miss	15.1		1	16	16
Michigan State	at	Maryland		23	30		17	28		Hit	Hit	-4.2		6	2	8
Illinois	at	Michigan		12	49		8	41		Hit	Miss	3.7		4	8	12
Rutgers	at	Minnesota		16	38		32	34		Hit	Miss	20.2		16	4	20
Grambling	at	Mississippi Valley State		63	12		59	10		Hit	Miss	1.9		4	2	5
Middle Tenn State	at	Missouri		29	33		51	45		Miss	Miss	10.2		22	12	34
Eastern Washington	at	Montana State		53	22		7	21		Miss	Miss	44.7		46	1	47
North Carolina Central	at	Morgan State		41	15		21	17		Hit	Miss	21.5		20	2	21
Memphis	at	Navy		32	24		28	42		Miss	Miss	22		4	18	22
Purdue	at	Nebraska		16	46		14	27		Hit	Miss	16.1		3	19	21
Wyoming	at	Nevada		35	22		42	34		Hit	Miss	5.9		7	13	19
UL Monroe	at	New Mexico		31	38		17	59		Hit	Hit	-34.9		14	21	35
Georgia Southern	at	New Mexico State		47	21		22	19		Hit	Miss	22.5		25	2	27
Vis	Typ	Home	Pred:	Vscr	Hscr	Actual:	vis	hom	—	Res	AtP	Score	—	ΔV	ΔH	LoTrio
Sam Houston	at	Nicholls State		43	29		38	21		Hit	Hit	-2.9		5	8	13
Bethune-Cookman	at	Norfolk State		29	21		21	14		Hit	Miss	1.7		8	7	15
Montana	at	Northern Arizona		37	22		34	45		Miss	Miss	25.4		3	23	25
Sacramento State	at	Northern Colorado		18	47		19	27		Hit	Miss	20.7		1	20	21
Buffalo	at	Northern Illinois		17	42		7	44		Hit	Hit	-12.5		10	2	12
Missouri State	at	Northern Iowa		18	32		7	61		Hit	Hit	-40.5		11	29	41
Indiana	at	Northwestern		23	27		14	24		Hit	Hit	-6		9	3	12
McNeese State	at	Northwestern State		26	26		48	27		Miss	Miss	21.1		22	1	23
Ohio State	at	Penn State		41	20		21	24		Miss	Miss	24		20	4	24
Maine	at	Rhode Island		40	10		28	21		Hit	Miss	22.5		12	11	23
Prairie View	at	Rice		26	29		44	65		Hit	Hit	-18.2		18	36	54
Western Carolina	at	Samford		18	46		17	30		Hit	Miss	14.3		2	16	17
San Jose State	at	San Diego State		17	42		3	42		Hit	Hit	-13.8		14	0	14
Houston	at	SMU		43	19		16	38		Miss	Miss	45.9		27	19	46
Troy	at	South Alabama		34	21		28	21		Hit	Miss	6		6	0	6
Massachusetts	at	South Carolina		17	26		28	34		Hit	Miss	3.9		11	8	19
Delaware State	at	South Carolina State		12	50		3	30		Hit	Miss	11		9	20	29
Illinois State	at	South Dakota		26	30		24	27		Hit	Miss	0.9		2	3	5
Youngstown State	at	South Dakota State		27	28		10	24		Hit	Hit	-12.9		17	4	21
Houston Baptist	at	Southeastern Louisiana		22	37		3	37		Hit	Hit	-18.9		19	0	20
Ark Pine Bluff	at	Southern		14	68		17	49		Hit	Miss	22.5		3	19	22
Indiana State	at	Southern Illinois		29	38		22	14		Miss	Miss	16.7		7	24	31
Weber State	at	Southern Utah		22	32		37	36		Miss	Miss	11		15	4	18
Colorado	at	Stanford		27	22		10	5		Hit	Hit	-0.5		17	17	34
South Florida	at	Temple		32	29		30	46		Miss	Miss	19.5		3	17	20
Vis	Typ	Home	Pred:	Vscr	Hscr	Actual:	vis	hom	—	Res	AtP	Score	—	ΔV	ΔH	LoTrio
SE Missouri State	at	Tennessee Tech		24	26		20	21		Hit	Miss	0.9		4	5	9
Jackson State	at	Texas Southern		19	34		21	13		Miss	Miss	23.2		2	21	23
UL Lafayette	at	Texas State		28	33		27	3		Miss	Miss	28.8		1	30	32
Oklahoma	at	Texas Tech		46	36		66	59		Hit	Miss	3		20	23	44
UTEP	at	Texas-San Antonio		14	41		46	49		Hit	Miss	23.4		32	8	40
Central Michigan	at	Toledo		24	39		17	31		Hit	Miss	1.3		7	8	15
New Hampshire	at	Towson		25	29		21	7		Miss	Miss	18.4		4	22	26
Tulane	at	Tulsa		27	34		27	50		Hit	Hit	-15.4		0	16	16
Utah	at	UCLA		22	25		52	45		Miss	Miss	9.9		30	20	50
Colorado State	at	UNLV		30	29		42	23		Hit	Hit	-17.8		12	6	18
Fresno State	at	Utah State		19	33		20	38		Hit	Hit	-3.2		2	5	6
Tennessee State	at	Vanderbilt		18	33		17	35		Hit	Hit	-3.6		1	2	4
Albany NY	at	Villanova		18	24		13	24		Hit	Hit	-5.2		5	0	5
North Carolina	at	Virginia		34	27		35	14		Hit	Hit	-14		1	13	14
Miami-Florida	at	Virginia Tech		25	24		16	37		Miss	Miss	21.7		9	13	22
Oregon State	at	Washington		15	46		17	41		Hit	Miss	6.5		2	5	7
TCU	at	West Virginia		24	37		10	31		Hit	Hit	-8.7		14	6	20
North Dakota State	at	Western Illinois		35	22		21	13		Hit	Miss	4.7		14	9	23
Old Dominion	at	Western Kentucky		29	34		24	59		Hit	Hit	-30		5	25	30
Eastern Michigan	at	Western Michigan		18	45		31	45		Hit	Miss	12.7		13	0	13
The Citadel	at	Wofford		20	23		24	21		Miss	Miss	6.3		4	2	6

Correct prediction	Score = Predicted MOV − Actual MOV
Incorrect prediction	Score = Predicted MOV + Actual MOV