Football Ratings

NCAA Division 1A Football

© Copyright 2004-2014, Paul Kislanko

Analysis	Breaks down the computer ranknigs listed on Kenneth Massey's College Football Ratings Comparison page as ranked ballots using a variety of vote-counting methods. Top 25 Borda Majority Consensus Pairwise Matrix Correlations Conference Ranks Weighted Violations Playoff Approval David Wilson's Rankings List describes the rating systems in terms of their attributes.
Commentary	The 2014 FBS Schedule July 4, 2014: Schedule topology and games to look forward to. Schedule Strengths July 6, 2014: A last-year's rank-based strength of schedule metric. Rank-Based Game Interest Update July 12, 2014: A small tweak to the formula. 2014 Computer Rankings July 26, 2014: First pre-season ratings published. Ratings as Voters August 17, 2014: Site updates to make analysis more accessable (and comprehensible?) Meta-Rating Construction September 5, 2014: "Composite" ratings compared Committee "consensus" September 9, 2014: A better committee "poll" Metrics on the Directed Games Graph October 17, 2014: You can be a computer, too. Weighted Win Paths November 2, 2014: A summary DGG metric as a quasi-rating. Judging the Judges December 5, 2014: A Playoff Epiphany - how they can't get it wrong.
Reference	Standings Index to team and conference schedules Consolidated Schedules and Results This is a consolidated and indexed version of Dr. Peter Wolfe's schedules and scores pages. FBS FBS-BCS AQ conference teams FBS non-AQ conference teams D1 Football Championship Subdivision Division 2 Division 3 NAIA Scoreboards FBS FCS D2 D3 NAIA Interdivisional Results with scoring analysis Division 1 schedule by week Interconference results for FBS Conferences Division and Conference Affiliations For all teams, based upon Dr. Wolfe's NCAA and NAIA Divisional and Conference Affiliations page. College Football Data Warehouse Where to go when you get old enough that your memory fails or you're too young to remember what happened before you were born. cfbstats.com Splits and situational stats - inside box scores
Ratings	ISR Boyd Nation's Iterative Strength Rating ISOV Iterated Strength of Victory (ISR with SOV-based adjustments for each game) Normalized Scoring Stats Scoring data adjusted by opponents' strength Directed Games Graph These are not "ratings" per se, but count and make visible all of the "A beat B beat C beat ..." (A⇒) chains in the current games graph. Second Order Winning Percentage % of teams that the given team has a shorter or stronger A⇒... chain to other teams than the other way around. (All D1) Weighted by the length and strength of the A⇒ paths to other teams. (All D1) Teams' rankings by pathcount differences (1A) (All D1) Summary by Weighted Win Paths (1A) (All D1)

Often people who are not familiar with the nature and limitations of statistical methods tend to expect too much of the rating system. Ratings provide merely a comparison of performances, no more and no less. The measurement of the performance of an individual is always made relative to the performance of his competitors and both the performance of the player and of his opponents are subject to much the same random fluctuations. The measurement of the rating of an individual might well be compared with the measurement of the position of a cork bobbing up and down on the surface of agitated water with a yard stick tied to a rope and which is swaying in the wind. Arpad Elo in Chess Life, 1962

In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice; In practice, there is. — Chuck Reid

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