This "surprise" factor combines the scoring and rank difference for games in which the worse-ranked team wins against the better-ranked team.
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Unranked (non-FBS) teams are arbitrarily assigned a rank of one more than the worst-ranked FBS team.
| Date | Factor | Game |
| 17 Nov | 26.00 | #6 Kansas St 24 #45 Baylor 52 |
| 6 Oct | 13.11 | #18 UCLA 17 #77 California 43 |
| 8 Sep | 8.53 | #34 Kent St 14 #92 Kentucky 47 |
| 6 Oct | 3.33 | #15 Florida St 16 #65 North Carolina St 17 |
| 27 Sep | 2.50 | #8 Stanford 13 #28 Washington 17 |
| 6 Oct | 2.50 | #8 Georgia 7 #13 South Carolina 35 |
| 10 Nov | 2.50 | #7 Texas A&M 29 #2 Alabama 24 |
| 1 Sep | 2.35 | #74 Ohio U. 24 #34 Penn State 14 |
| 6 Oct | 1.71 | #46 West Virginia 48 #17 Texas 45 |
| 27 Oct | 1.67 | #3 Florida 9 #8 Georgia 17 |
| 10 Nov | 1.59 | #34 Louisville 26 #52 Syracuse 45 |
| 1 Sep | 1.57 | #77 Iowa 18 #30 Northern Illinois 17 |
| 8 Sep | 1.47 | #34 Penn State 16 #84 Virginia 17 |
| 1 Sep | 1.25 | #125 Youngstown St 31 #77 Pittsburgh 17 |
| 3 Nov | 1.17 | #84 Virginia 31 #65 North Carolina St 6 |
| 27 Oct | 1.15 | #13 Oregon St 17 #28 Washington 20 |
| 29 Sep | 1.13 | #75 Western Kentucky 26 #48 Arkansas St 13 |
| 17 Nov | 1.00 | #8 Stanford 17 #4 Oregon 14 |
| 8 Sep | 0.95 | #19 Oklahoma St 38 #25 Arizona 59 |
| 30 Aug | 0.89 | #125 McNeese St 27 #66 Middle Tennessee St 21 |
| 3 Nov | 0.86 | #87 Air Force 21 #112 Army 41 |
| 27 Oct | 0.83 | #34 Kent St 35 #24 Rutgers 23 |
| 10 Nov | 0.80 | #105 Florida Atlantic 37 #75 Western Kentucky 28 |
| 5 Oct | 0.74 | #27 Utah St 3 #47 Brigham Young 6 |
| 13 Oct | 0.71 | #77 Iowa 19 #45 Michigan St 16 |
| 8 Sep | 0.67 | #49 North Carolina 27 #82 Wake Forest 28 |
| 10 Nov | 0.63 | #63 Navy 31 #83 Troy 41 |
| 10 Nov | 0.62 | #52 Miami FL 40 #84 Virginia 41 |
| 10 Nov | 0.61 | #59 Georgia Tech 68 #49 North Carolina 50 |
| 16 Oct | 0.56 | #61 Louisiana-Lafayette 23 #95 North Texas 30 |
| 26 Oct | 0.53 | #74 Nevada 31 #87 Air Force 48 |
| 3 Nov | 0.52 | #42 Tulsa 15 #64 Arkansas 19 |
| 29 Sep | 0.50 | #66 Minnesota 13 #77 Iowa 31 |
| 15 Sep | 0.45 | #67 Virginia Tech 17 #77 Pittsburgh 35 |
| 27 Oct | 0.45 | #45 Michigan St 16 #31 Wisconsin 13 |
| 3 Nov | 0.38 | #47 San Diego St 21 #34 Boise St 19 |
| 20 Oct | 0.37 | #49 North Carolina 30 #67 Duke 33 |
| 8 Sep | 0.36 | #125 North Dakota St 22 #106 Colorado St 7 |
| 29 Sep | 0.36 | #66 Middle Tennessee St 49 #59 Georgia Tech 28 |
| 13 Oct | 0.36 | #86 SMU 26 #117 Tulane 27 |
| 27 Oct | 0.36 | #74 Ohio U. 20 #101 Miami OH 23 |
| 8 Sep | 0.35 | #125 Illinois St 31 #112 Eastern Michigan 14 |
| 29 Sep | 0.35 | #125 Stony Brook 23 #112 Army 3 |
| 6 Oct | 0.34 | #29 Northwestern 28 #34 Penn State 39 |
| 31 Aug | 0.32 | #34 Boise St 13 #45 Michigan St 17 |
| 15 Sep | 0.32 | #47 Brigham Young 21 #62 Utah 24 |
| 15 Sep | 0.32 | #125 Cal Poly SLO 24 #95 Wyoming 22 |
| 15 Sep | 0.31 | #62 Louisiana-Monroe 28 #81 Auburn 31 |
| 22 Sep | 0.31 | #87 Air Force 35 #114 UNLV 38 |
| 8 Sep | 0.29 | #14 Nebraska 30 #18 UCLA 36 |
| 20 Oct | 0.29 | #9 LSU 24 #7 Texas A&M 19 |
| 22 Sep | 0.27 | #52 Syracuse 10 #66 Minnesota 17 |
| 29 Sep | 0.27 | #97 Houston 35 #89 Rice 14 |
| 27 Oct | 0.27 | #83 Troy 27 #105 Florida Atlantic 34 |
| 6 Oct | 0.24 | #89 Rice 10 #110 Memphis 14 |
| 1 Sep | 0.22 | #104 Texas St-San Marcos 30 #97 Houston 13 |
| 3 Nov | 0.22 | #108 New Mexico 7 #114 UNLV 35 |
| 22 Sep | 0.19 | #92 Central Michigan 32 #77 Iowa 31 |
| 10 Nov | 0.19 | #94 Marshall 31 #112 Alabama-Birmingham 38 |
| 1 Sep | 0.18 | #100 Western Michigan 7 #106 Illinois 24 |
| 9 Nov | 0.18 | #77 Pittsburgh 17 #91 Connecticut 24 |
| 3 Nov | 0.17 | #100 Western Michigan 42 #92 Central Michigan 31 |
| 22 Sep | 0.16 | #115 Colorado 35 #99 Washington St 34 |
| 15 Sep | 0.15 | #27 Utah St 14 #31 Wisconsin 16 |
| 1 Sep | 0.14 | #125 Tennessee-Martin 20 #110 Memphis 17 |
| 3 Sep | 0.14 | #59 Georgia Tech 17 #67 Virginia Tech 20 |
| 8 Sep | 0.14 | #84 South Florida 32 #74 Nevada 31 |
| 8 Sep | 0.14 | #91 Maryland 36 #85 Temple 27 |
| 22 Sep | 0.14 | #14 Clemson 37 #15 Florida St 49 |
| 27 Oct | 0.14 | #22 Southern Cal 36 #25 Arizona 39 |
| 30 Aug | 0.13 | #125 Eastern Washington 20 #120 Idaho 3 |
| 15 Sep | 0.12 | #43 Arizona St 20 #48 Missouri 24 |
| 6 Oct | 0.12 | #104 Texas St-San Marcos 14 #108 New Mexico 35 |
| 27 Oct | 0.12 | #91 Maryland 17 #102 Boston College 20 |
| 17 Nov | 0.12 | #112 Eastern Michigan 29 #100 Western Michigan 23 |
| 22 Sep | 0.11 | #38 Fresno St 26 #42 Tulsa 27 |
| 6 Oct | 0.11 | #82 Wake Forest 14 #91 Maryland 19 |
| 20 Oct | 0.11 | #105 Florida Atlantic 34 #117 South Alabama 37 |
| 8 Sep | 0.10 | #125 Northern Arizona 17 #114 UNLV 14 |
| 22 Sep | 0.10 | #91 Connecticut 24 #100 Western Michigan 30 |
| 6 Oct | 0.10 | #102 Boston College 31 #112 Army 34 |
| 17 Nov | 0.10 | #86 SMU 14 #89 Rice 36 |
| 8 Sep | 0.09 | #125 Sacramento St 30 #115 Colorado 28 |
| 20 Oct | 0.09 | #43 Cincinnati 23 #47 Toledo 29 |
| 27 Oct | 0.09 | #112 Alabama-Birmingham 45 #117 Tulane 55 |
| 13 Oct | 0.08 | #91 Maryland 27 #84 Virginia 20 |
| 17 Nov | 0.08 | #52 Syracuse 31 #48 Missouri 27 |
| 22 Sep | 0.06 | #94 Marshall 54 #89 Rice 51 |
| 6 Oct | 0.06 | #95 North Texas 21 #97 Houston 44 |
| 3 Nov | 0.04 | #77 Iowa 21 #80 Indiana 24 |
| 31 Aug | 0.03 | #66 Tennessee 35 #65 North Carolina St 21 |
| 29 Sep | 0.02 | #45 Baylor 63 #46 West Virginia 70 |
| 6 Oct | 0.02 | #84 South Florida 28 #85 Temple 37 |