This "surprise" factor combines the scoring and rank difference for games in which the worse-ranked team wins against the better-ranked team.
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Unranked (non-FBS) teams are arbitrarily assigned a rank of one more than the worst-ranked FBS team.
| Date | Factor | Game |
| 20 Oct | 3.15 | #20 Iowa St 10 #41 Oklahoma St 31 |
| 6 Oct | 2.51 | #35 UCLA 17 #57 California 43 |
| 8 Sep | 1.88 | #64 Kent St 14 #88 Kentucky 47 |
| 27 Sep | 1.67 | #18 Stanford 13 #48 Washington 17 |
| 6 Oct | 1.63 | #19 Florida St 16 #50 North Carolina St 17 |
| 8 Sep | 1.44 | #39 Penn State 16 #95 Virginia 17 |
| 15 Sep | 1.42 | #59 Virginia Tech 17 #87 Pittsburgh 35 |
| 8 Sep | 1.28 | #36 North Carolina 27 #82 Wake Forest 28 |
| 22 Sep | 1.27 | #100 Central Michigan 32 #44 Iowa 31 |
| 15 Sep | 1.21 | #24 Arizona St 20 #53 Missouri 24 |
| 18 Oct | 1.14 | #74 Houston 42 #95 SMU 72 |
| 20 Oct | 1.09 | #23 Cincinnati 23 #48 Toledo 29 |
| 1 Sep | 0.87 | #125 Youngstown St 31 #87 Pittsburgh 17 |
| 20 Oct | 0.78 | #36 North Carolina 30 #64 Duke 33 |
| 31 Aug | 0.74 | #23 Boise St 13 #40 Michigan St 17 |
| 16 Oct | 0.73 | #56 Louisiana-Lafayette 23 #97 North Texas 30 |
| 8 Sep | 0.70 | #78 South Florida 32 #46 Nevada 31 |
| 15 Sep | 0.62 | #52 Louisiana-Monroe 28 #84 Auburn 31 |
| 20 Oct | 0.59 | #73 San Diego St 39 #46 Nevada 38 |
| 20 Oct | 0.58 | #52 Louisiana-Monroe 43 #33 Western Kentucky 42 |
| 30 Aug | 0.54 | #125 McNeese St 27 #81 Middle Tennessee St 21 |
| 1 Sep | 0.49 | #86 Texas St-San Marcos 30 #74 Houston 13 |
| 1 Sep | 0.41 | #47 Ohio U. 24 #39 Penn State 14 |
| 15 Sep | 0.41 | #51 Brigham Young 21 #72 Utah 24 |
| 13 Oct | 0.38 | #8 South Carolina 21 #11 LSU 23 |
| 29 Sep | 0.32 | #125 Stony Brook 23 #113 Army 3 |
| 15 Sep | 0.31 | #84 Connecticut 24 #64 Maryland 21 |
| 22 Sep | 0.24 | #88 Air Force 35 #109 UNLV 38 |
| 15 Sep | 0.23 | #125 Cal Poly SLO 24 #102 Wyoming 22 |
| 6 Oct | 0.23 | #65 Vanderbilt 19 #53 Missouri 15 |
| 6 Oct | 0.23 | #35 Northwestern 28 #39 Penn State 39 |
| 13 Oct | 0.19 | #95 SMU 26 #113 Tulane 27 |
| 20 Oct | 0.19 | #74 New Mexico 23 #88 Air Force 28 |
| 22 Sep | 0.18 | #116 Colorado 35 #98 Washington St 34 |
| 8 Sep | 0.17 | #125 North Dakota St 22 #115 Colorado St 7 |
| 8 Sep | 0.15 | #125 Illinois St 31 #119 Eastern Michigan 14 |
| 8 Sep | 0.15 | #125 Northern Arizona 17 #109 UNLV 14 |
| 30 Aug | 0.13 | #125 Eastern Washington 20 #120 Idaho 3 |
| 1 Sep | 0.13 | #44 Iowa 18 #39 Northern Illinois 17 |
| 15 Sep | 0.13 | #16 Southern Cal 14 #18 Stanford 21 |
| 29 Sep | 0.13 | #32 Wisconsin 27 #36 Nebraska 30 |
| 5 Oct | 0.13 | #45 Utah St 3 #51 Brigham Young 6 |
| 6 Oct | 0.13 | #104 Rice 10 #117 Memphis 14 |
| 22 Sep | 0.11 | #84 Connecticut 24 #93 Western Michigan 30 |
| 20 Oct | 0.11 | #113 Army 38 #119 Eastern Michigan 48 |
| 13 Oct | 0.10 | #44 Iowa 19 #40 Michigan St 16 |
| 13 Oct | 0.09 | #101 Texas-San Antonio 14 #104 Rice 34 |
| 8 Sep | 0.08 | #125 Sacramento St 30 #116 Colorado 28 |
| 29 Sep | 0.08 | #50 North Carolina St 37 #54 Miami FL 44 |
| 6 Oct | 0.08 | #105 Boston College 31 #113 Army 34 |
| 1 Sep | 0.07 | #125 Tennessee-Martin 20 #117 Memphis 17 |
| 1 Sep | 0.06 | #93 Western Michigan 7 #95 Illinois 24 |
| 8 Sep | 0.06 | #104 Rice 25 #98 Kansas 24 |
| 31 Aug | 0.04 | #51 Tennessee 35 #50 North Carolina St 21 |
| 20 Oct | 0.04 | #112 Florida Atlantic 34 #116 South Alabama 37 |
| 20 Oct | 0.03 | #36 Nebraska 29 #35 Northwestern 28 |