This "surprise" factor combines the scoring and rank difference for games in which the worse-ranked team wins against the better-ranked team.
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Unranked (non-FBS) teams are arbitrarily assigned a rank of one more than the worst-ranked FBS team.
| Date | Factor | Game |
| 6 Oct | 7.70 | #27 UCLA 17 #79 California 43 |
| 6 Oct | 7.14 | #7 Florida St 16 #57 North Carolina St 17 |
| 6 Oct | 4.50 | #25 Oklahoma 41 #10 Texas Tech 20 |
| 6 Oct | 1.68 | #31 Northwestern 28 #57 Penn State 39 |
| 1 Sep | 1.62 | #125 Youngstown St 31 #69 Pittsburgh 17 |
| 6 Oct | 1.53 | #86 Arkansas 24 #57 Auburn 7 |
| 27 Sep | 1.27 | #15 Stanford 13 #34 Washington 17 |
| 6 Oct | 1.25 | #72 Vanderbilt 19 #32 Missouri 15 |
| 6 Oct | 1.17 | #13 West Virginia 48 #6 Texas 45 |
| 6 Oct | 0.82 | #31 Iowa St 37 #22 TCU 23 |
| 6 Oct | 0.76 | #66 South Florida 28 #91 Temple 37 |
| 22 Sep | 0.73 | #95 Central Michigan 32 #55 Iowa 31 |
| 30 Aug | 0.64 | #125 McNeese St 27 #76 Middle Tennessee St 21 |
| 15 Sep | 0.63 | #57 Virginia Tech 17 #69 Pittsburgh 35 |
| 8 Sep | 0.52 | #52 North Carolina 27 #79 Wake Forest 28 |
| 8 Sep | 0.44 | #57 Penn State 16 #82 Virginia 17 |
| 8 Sep | 0.43 | #66 South Florida 32 #46 Nevada 31 |
| 8 Sep | 0.40 | #30 Oklahoma St 38 #34 Arizona 59 |
| 6 Oct | 0.40 | #85 Boston College 31 #119 Army 34 |
| 15 Sep | 0.33 | #125 Cal Poly SLO 24 #94 Wyoming 22 |
| 15 Sep | 0.28 | #25 Arizona St 20 #32 Missouri 24 |
| 22 Sep | 0.28 | #88 Air Force 35 #113 UNLV 38 |
| 8 Sep | 0.26 | #125 Illinois St 31 #115 Eastern Michigan 14 |
| 8 Sep | 0.25 | #125 North Dakota St 22 #111 Colorado St 7 |
| 5 Oct | 0.25 | #69 Pittsburgh 13 #86 Syracuse 14 |
| 15 Sep | 0.24 | #49 Brigham Young 21 #61 Utah 24 |
| 22 Sep | 0.24 | #74 Connecticut 24 #92 Western Michigan 30 |
| 8 Sep | 0.21 | #73 Kent St 14 #76 Kentucky 47 |
| 6 Oct | 0.21 | #40 Michigan 44 #38 Purdue 13 |
| 22 Sep | 0.19 | #115 Colorado 35 #97 Washington St 34 |
| 6 Oct | 0.16 | #102 Navy 28 #88 Air Force 21 |
| 29 Sep | 0.15 | #125 Stony Brook 23 #119 Army 3 |
| 6 Oct | 0.13 | #107 Rice 10 #121 Memphis 14 |
| 8 Sep | 0.11 | #125 Northern Arizona 17 #113 UNLV 14 |
| 30 Aug | 0.10 | #125 Eastern Washington 20 #121 Idaho 3 |
| 31 Aug | 0.10 | #31 Boise St 13 #34 Michigan St 17 |
| 8 Sep | 0.09 | #125 Sacramento St 30 #115 Colorado 28 |
| 1 Sep | 0.07 | #90 Texas St-San Marcos 30 #88 Houston 13 |
| 8 Sep | 0.06 | #107 Rice 25 #101 Kansas 24 |
| 29 Sep | 0.06 | #69 Ball St 43 #73 Kent St 45 |
| 22 Sep | 0.05 | #66 South Florida 27 #69 Ball St 31 |
| 29 Sep | 0.04 | #76 Middle Tennessee St 49 #75 Georgia Tech 28 |
| 1 Sep | 0.03 | #125 Tennessee-Martin 20 #121 Memphis 17 |
| 6 Oct | 0.03 | #117 New Mexico St 18 #121 Idaho 26 |
| 6 Oct | 0.03 | #90 Texas St-San Marcos 14 #91 New Mexico 35 |