This "surprise" factor combines the scoring and rank difference for games in which the worse-ranked team wins against the better-ranked team.
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Unranked (non-FBS) teams are arbitrarily assigned a rank of one more than the worst-ranked FBS team.
| Date | Factor | Game |
| 15 Sep | 1.84 | #44 Virginia Tech 17 #71 Pittsburgh 35 |
| 1 Sep | 1.52 | #125 Youngstown St 31 #71 Pittsburgh 17 |
| 22 Sep | 1.27 | #109 Central Michigan 32 #48 Iowa 31 |
| 22 Sep | 0.78 | #16 Kansas St 24 #9 Oklahoma 19 |
| 8 Sep | 0.75 | #16 Oklahoma St 38 #20 Arizona 59 |
| 22 Sep | 0.65 | #71 Air Force 35 #117 UNLV 38 |
| 22 Sep | 0.63 | #39 Oregon St 27 #24 UCLA 20 |
| 8 Sep | 0.56 | #75 Louisiana-Monroe 34 #48 Arkansas 31 |
| 22 Sep | 0.56 | #54 South Florida 27 #84 Ball St 31 |
| 1 Sep | 0.43 | #104 Texas St-San Marcos 30 #91 Houston 13 |
| 22 Sep | 0.42 | #51 Miami FL 42 #36 Georgia Tech 36 |
| 22 Sep | 0.39 | #64 Connecticut 24 #89 Western Michigan 30 |
| 22 Sep | 0.36 | #117 Colorado 35 #86 Washington St 34 |
| 8 Sep | 0.34 | #29 Wisconsin 7 #39 Oregon St 10 |
| 8 Sep | 0.31 | #125 North Dakota St 22 #108 Colorado St 7 |
| 30 Aug | 0.29 | #125 Eastern Washington 20 #114 Idaho 3 |
| 15 Sep | 0.29 | #125 Cal Poly SLO 24 #97 Wyoming 22 |
| 7 Sep | 0.28 | #40 Utah 20 #51 Utah St 27 |
| 8 Sep | 0.23 | #125 Illinois St 31 #116 Eastern Michigan 14 |
| 3 Sep | 0.22 | #36 Georgia Tech 17 #44 Virginia Tech 20 |
| 22 Sep | 0.20 | #40 Utah 7 #42 Arizona St 37 |
| 8 Sep | 0.18 | #65 North Carolina 27 #77 Wake Forest 28 |
| 30 Aug | 0.16 | #125 McNeese St 27 #108 Middle Tennessee St 21 |
| 22 Sep | 0.16 | #102 Troy 14 #88 North Texas 7 |
| 15 Sep | 0.14 | #35 Brigham Young 21 #40 Utah 24 |
| 8 Sep | 0.07 | #125 Sacramento St 30 #117 Colorado 28 |
| 8 Sep | 0.07 | #125 Northern Arizona 17 #117 UNLV 14 |
| 22 Sep | 0.07 | #114 New Mexico 27 #110 New Mexico St 14 |
| 1 Sep | 0.02 | #125 Tennessee-Martin 20 #122 Memphis 17 |