The Emperor Does Too wear Clothes!

© Copyright 2005, Paul Kislanko

Fans of teams that aren't in BCS conferences throw around phrases such as "the BCS teams won't play us!" and when the big boys do they say "yeah, but we'd beat 'em if we got 'em at our place!". Neither statement is true, and repeating them over and over won't make them true.

Myth 1: The BCS teams won't schedule non-BCS teams

Pct	BCS	Stat	¬BCS	Pct
	66	Teams	53
	216	Scheduling Opportunities	192
	3.3	Sched Opps/Team	3.6
14.8	32	Games vs 1AA team	22	11.5
37.0	80	Opps in same Category	66	34.4
48.1	104	BCS v ¬BCS	104	54.2

There really are some BCS teams that won't schedule some non-BCS teams, but over half of the non-BCS teams' "schedule opportunities" are filled by opponents from BCS conferences. A "schedule opportunity" is, of course, a non-conference game, since nobody can do anything about their conference schedule.

It's really individual teams that make scheduling decisions, but as a group the BCS conference teams don't seem to choose that much differently than their non-BCS conference team counterparts. There's a slightly higher percentage of 1AA opponents and games against other BCS conference members, but from the non-BCS teams' perspective they already get more games from BCS teams than they do from 1AA and other non-BCS teams combined.

Myth 2: If there were more games at non-BCS sites there'd be more non-BCS wins

Pct	BCS	Stat	¬BCS	Pct
96.9	31-1	Record vs 1AA	21-1	95.5
47.5	19-21	Road Record vs BCS	7-71	9.0
52.5	21-19	Home Record vs BCS	4-22	15.4
84.6	22-4	Road Record vs ¬BCS	12-21	36.4
91.0	71-7	Home Record vs ¬BCS	21-12	63.6

Over all of Division 1A there really doesn't seem to be much of a home field advantage, but in any case we can compare the home and road records for BCS teams vs BCS teams, BCS teams vs non-BCS teams, and non-BCS teams vs non-BCS teams.

The evidence that non-BCS teams play better at home comes from the 63.6 percent winning percentage vs other non-BCS teams. At home against BCS-conference teams, that would be 15.4 percent, though. More likely non-BCS teams "schedule weaker home opponents" the same way the BCS teams do.

In fact, in games involving conference opponents, the non-BCS conference teams have a losing home record! 101 road conference wins to 99 home conference wins.

Myth 3: The top BCS teams won't play the top non-BCS teams

Range	# BCS Teams	Gms v ¬BCS
1-10	10	17
11-20	9	16
21-30	9	16
31-40	5	6
41-50	10	19
51-60	7	11

It's hard to figure out what this is supposed to mean, but again a look at the real schedules doesn't back it up. If we take "top" to mean "top half of the field" and the final BCS ranking as the method to order the teams, 85 of the 104 regular-season games (82 percent) between the categories involved a top-60 BCS team. So certainly the top BCS teams play opponents from non-BCS conferences.

Now it is true that only 19 of those 85 are against non-BCS teams from the top 60, but that is still 22.4 percent of the game total. That is perfectly in line with the fact that there are only ten such non-BCS teams, which is only 18.9 percent of all available non-BCS opponents. Eight of the top ten had at least one game against a top-60 BCS opponent. (Somewhat ironically, the two who didn't met in the GMAC Bowl).

Let the record also show that the top ten non-BCS teams were 2-17 against the top 50 BCS teams. That's about the same winning percentage as the overall: 0.118 compared to 0.106.

Facts may have no place in a good football argument, but neither do myths.

2005 Final Results, non-BCS vs BCS
(Includes Bowl Games)

BCS @ non-BCS
		VS		HS	MOV
4	BCS	17.8	¬BCS wins	27.8	10.0
22	BCS wins	32.6	¬BCS	14.9	17.8

¬BCS @ BCS
9	¬BCS wins	27.1	BCS	18.0	9.1
74	¬BCS	14.1	BCS wins	39.9	25.7

All
		WS		LS	MOV
13	¬BCS wins	27.3	BCS	17.9	9.4
96	BCS wins	38.2	¬BCS	14.3	23.9

BCS @ non-BCS

9/1/2005 # 5 Oregon 38 @ # 80 Houston 24

9/1/2005 # 28 Minnesota 41 @ # 33 Tulsa 10

9/2/2005 # 83 Arizona 24 @ # 67 Utah 27

9/2/2005 # 66 Indiana 20 @ # 63 Central Michigan 13

9/3/2005 # 109 Duke 21 @ # 86 East Carolina 24

9/3/2005 # 21 Boston College 20 @ # 60 BYU 3

9/3/2005 # 1 Southern California 63 @ # 87 Hawaii 17

9/3/2005 # 16 UCLA 44 @ # 80 San Diego St 21

9/3/2005 # 55 Baylor 28 @ # 84 SMU 23

9/5/2005 # 95 Mississippi 10 @ # 77 Memphis 6

9/8/2005 # 70 Oklahoma St 23 @ # 113 Florida Atlantic 3

9/9/2005 # 68 Pittsburgh 10 @ # 93 Ohio 16

9/9/2005 # 76 Washington St 55 @ # 35 Nevada 21

9/10/2005 # 56 Kansas St 21 @ # 100 Marshall 19

9/10/2005 # 51 Stanford 41 @ # 40 Navy 38

9/17/2005 # 55 Baylor 20 @ # 89 Army 10

9/17/2005 # 39 Rutgers 17 @ # 117 Buffalo 3

9/17/2005 # 97 Mississippi St 21 @ # 112 Tulane 14

9/23/2005 # 36 Iowa State 28 @ # 89 Army 21

9/23/2005 # 32 California 41 @ # 119 New Mexico St 13

9/28/2005 # 85 Cincinnati 16 @ # 70 Miami-Ohio 44

10/1/2005 # 79 Connecticut 47 @ # 89 Army 13

10/8/2005 # 50 Maryland 38 @ # 114 Temple 7

10/15/2005 # 8 Miami-Florida 34 @ # 114 Temple 3

11/25/2005 # 18 Wisconsin 41 @ # 87 Hawaii 24

12/28/2005 # 21 Boston College 27 @ # 29 Boise St 21

¬BCS @ BCS

9/1/2005 # 114 Temple 16 @ # 42 Arizona St 63

9/1/2005 # 99 Eastern Michigan 26 @ # 85 Cincinnati 28

9/1/2005 # 117 Buffalo 0 @ # 79 Connecticut 38

9/1/2005 # 58 UCF 15 @ # 30 South Carolina 24

9/1/2005 # 116 Idaho 26 @ # 76 Washington St 38

9/3/2005 # 14 TCU 17 @ # 23 Oklahoma 10

9/3/2005 # 92 Air Force 20 vs # 96 Washington 17

9/3/2005 # 103 Middle Tenn St 7 @ # 13 Alabama 26

9/3/2005 # 57 Colorado St 28 @ # 41 Colorado 31

9/3/2005 # 91 Wyoming 14 @ # 17 Florida 32

9/3/2005 # 29 Boise St 13 @ # 7 Georgia 48

9/3/2005 # 82 Ball State 0 @ # 26 Iowa 56

9/3/2005 # 113 Florida Atlantic 19 @ # 43 Kansas 30

9/3/2005 # 104 Florida Intl 21 @ # 56 Kansas St 35

9/3/2005 # 62 Northern Illinois 17 @ # 20 Michigan 33

9/3/2005 # 118 Kent St 14 @ # 48 Michigan St 49

9/3/2005 # 101 Arkansas St 17 vs # 49 Missouri 44

9/3/2005 # 40 Navy 20 vs # 50 Maryland 23

9/3/2005 # 93 Ohio 14 @ # 25 Northwestern 38

9/3/2005 # 70 Miami-Ohio 14 @ # 4 Ohio State 34

9/3/2005 # 93 UAB 10 @ # 54 Tennessee 17

9/3/2005 # 97 UL Lafayette 3 @ # 2 Texas 60

9/3/2005 # 75 Western Michigan 19 @ # 47 Virginia 31

9/3/2005 # 78 Bowling Green 42 @ # 18 Wisconsin 56

9/10/2005 # 69 New Mexico 45 @ # 49 Missouri 35

9/10/2005 # 74 Southern Miss 21 @ # 13 Alabama 30

9/10/2005 # 89 Army 7 @ # 21 Boston College 44

9/10/2005 # 119 New Mexico St 0 @ # 41 Colorado 39

9/10/2005 # 64 Louisiana Tech 3 @ # 17 Florida 41

9/10/2005 # 109 San Jose St 19 @ # 88 Illinois 40

9/10/2005 # 87 Hawaii 14 @ # 48 Michigan St 42

9/10/2005 # 57 Colorado St 24 @ # 28 Minnesota 56

9/10/2005 # 62 Northern Illinois 37 @ # 25 Northwestern 38

9/10/2005 # 33 Tulsa 15 @ # 23 Oklahoma 31

9/10/2005 # 29 Boise St 27 @ # 59 Oregon St 30

9/10/2005 # 72 Akron 24 @ # 46 Purdue 49

9/10/2005 # 117 Buffalo 0 @ # 106 Syracuse 31

9/10/2005 # 104 Florida Intl 3 @ # 15 Texas Tech 56

9/10/2005 # 111 Rice 21 @ # 16 UCLA 63

9/10/2005 # 114 Temple 0 @ # 18 Wisconsin 65

9/17/2005 # 82 Ball State 3 @ # 9 Auburn 63

9/17/2005 # 102 UL Monroe 7 @ # 7 Georgia 44

9/17/2005 # 64 Louisiana Tech 14 @ # 43 Kansas 34

9/17/2005 # 99 Eastern Michigan 0 @ # 20 Michigan 55

9/17/2005 # 113 Florida Atlantic 7 @ # 28 Minnesota 46

9/17/2005 # 106 Troy 21 @ # 49 Missouri 52

9/17/2005 # 80 San Diego St 6 @ # 4 Ohio State 27

9/17/2005 # 101 Arkansas St 10 @ # 70 Oklahoma St 20

9/17/2005 # 31 Fresno St 34 @ # 5 Oregon 37

9/17/2005 # 63 Central Michigan 3 @ # 3 Penn State 40

9/17/2005 # 58 UCF 14 @ # 51 South Florida 31

9/17/2005 # 111 Rice 10 @ # 2 Texas 51

9/17/2005 # 84 SMU 8 @ # 53 Texas A&M 66

9/17/2005 # 93 Ohio 0 @ # 10 Virginia Tech 45

9/17/2005 # 86 East Carolina 34 @ # 61 Wake Forest 44

9/17/2005 # 116 Idaho 6 @ # 96 Washington 34

9/24/2005 # 91 Wyoming 24 @ # 95 Mississippi 14

9/24/2005 # 115 North Texas 7 @ # 56 Kansas St 54

9/24/2005 # 106 Troy 20 @ # 30 South Carolina 45

9/24/2005 # 86 East Carolina 15 @ # 11 West Virginia 20

10/1/2005 # 40 Navy 28 @ # 109 Duke 21

10/1/2005 # 103 Middle Tenn St 17 @ # 65 Vanderbilt 15

10/1/2005 # 82 Ball State 0 @ # 21 Boston College 38

10/1/2005 # 113 Florida Atlantic 10 @ # 19 Louisville 16

10/1/2005 # 67 Utah 17 @ # 44 North Carolina 21

10/8/2005 # 102 UL Monroe 15 vs # 72 Arkansas 44

10/8/2005 # 100 Marshall 14 @ # 10 Virginia Tech 41

10/22/2005 # 80 Houston 28 @ # 97 Mississippi St 16

10/22/2005 # 114 Temple 7 @ # 27 Clemson 37

10/22/2005 # 60 BYU 23 @ # 6 Notre Dame 49

10/29/2005 # 105 Utah St 3 @ # 13 Alabama 35

10/29/2005 # 115 North Texas 3 @ # 12 LSU 56

10/29/2005 # 74 Southern Miss 17 @ # 45 North Carolina St 21

10/29/2005 # 40 Navy 21 @ # 39 Rutgers 31

11/5/2005 # 114 Temple 3 @ # 47 Virginia 51

11/12/2005 # 40 Navy 21 @ # 6 Notre Dame 42

11/12/2005 # 77 Memphis 16 @ # 54 Tennessee 20

11/19/2005 # 103 Middle Tenn St 3 @ # 45 North Carolina St 24

11/19/2005 # 31 Fresno St 42 @ # 1 Southern California 50

12/22/2005 # 60 BYU 28 vs # 32 California 35

12/23/2005 # 80 Houston 13 vs # 43 Kansas 42

12/29/2005 # 67 Utah 38 vs # 24 Georgia Tech 10

12/31/2005 # 14 TCU 27 vs # 36 Iowa State 24