Schedule Strength - (pre)Preseason version

© Copyright 2009, Paul Kislanko

As promised, I'll take a way-too-early stab at characterizing teams' schedules by difficulty, but before I get to that here's a more refined version of the interconference game counts chart I included last time.

↓Home/Road→ ACC BigE B10 B12 ND P10 SEC CUSA Ind MAC MW SBC WAC FCS
ACC   3 1 3 0 1 2 10 2 0 2 2 2 0 8 14
BigE 2   3 1 1 0 0 7 3 1 1 0 2 1 8 10
B10 0 1   0 2 3 0 6 0 1 12 1 1 3 18 9
B12 1 1 2   0 0 2 6 8 1 2 5 4 1 21 9
ND 1 1 1 0   3 0 6 0 1 0 0 0 1 2 0
P10 1 1 1 1 1   1 6 1 0 1 2 1 4 94
SEC 5 2 0 0 0 2   9 4 0 3 0 9 2 18 11
  10 9 8 5 4 9 5   18 4 21 10 19 12  
CUSA 3 0 0 2 0 0 2 7   2 3 1 1 1 8 9
Ind 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 4 1   2 1 1 1 6 2
MAC 0 3 2 2 0 0 1 8 0 2   0 2 2 6 9
MW 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 4 2 1 0   0 6 96
SBC 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 3 2 1 2 1   0 6 4
WAC 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 3 1 1 1 4 0   7 7
  6 6 3 7 0 2 5   6 7 8 7 4 10  
FCS 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  
This chart recognizes the location of the games. For instance, instead of reporting 5 ACC-Big East matchups, we see from row "ACC" and column "BigE" the ACC has 3 home games and from row "BigE", column "ACC" the Big East has two. I've also added sums for the different categories.

Way too early SOS

There's no way to know who's played a tough schedule until they and their opponents have won and lost some actual, you know, games. In mid-July all we've got to go on is how each team's opponents finished last year. I use the 2008 Computer Majority Consensus ranks for teams' opponents to characterize team schedules. Don't read too much into this report - the only thing we know about this year's teams is that are not the same as last year's. But here's the top 20 toughest schedules based upon how the opponents finished in 2008:
Wtdm Best Med Worst Avg 08 Rank Team Opponents' Rank
24.4 3 32 FCS 45.5 4 Oklahoma 3 9 20 22 28 32 37 42 70 78 84 FCS
24.6 3 22 FCS 47.0 70 Baylor 3 4 9 18 20 22 30 41 84 106 106 FCS
26.2 3 35 115 49.8 13 Oregon 3 4 10 16 20 35 59 66 78 79 113 115
27.2 8 38 FCS 54.6 70 Illinois 8 12 18 20 27 38 65 72 78 92 104 FCS
28.6 3 39 FCS 48.9 20 Oklahoma St 3 4 9 12 18 39 52 69 70 84 106 FCS
28.7 1 42 FCS 53.3 60 Arkansas 1 7 12 16 33 42 63 66 84 85 110 FCS
30.7 3 35 115 52.3 59 Stanford 3 13 16 20 30 35 53 66 79 84 113 115
31.0 3 39 FCS 50.8 9 Texas Tech 3 4 20 22 32 39 52 70 78 84 84 FCS
31.1 7 36 FCS 48.7 66 Auburn 7 12 16 29 33 36 54 60 62 69 85 FCS
32.9 3 32 108 54.8 69 Colorado 3 18 20 22 29 32 59 78 84 98 106 108
36.8 7 39 93 43.2 18 Virginia Tech 7 22 26 29 31 39 42 49 52 56 72 93
37.8 1 44 FCS 49.6 12 Georgia 1 20 26 33 42 44 54 60 62 66 66 FCS
37.8 3 35 117 50.6 115 Washington 3 13 16 20 33 35 53 59 66 79 113 117
37.9 8 38 FCS 50.0 94 Syracuse 8 20 23 29 38 38 41 44 65 80 93 FCS
38.1 4 31 FCS 46.7 42 Miami-Florida 4 18 19 26 30 31 40 44 56 72 99 FCS
38.3 8 38 FCS 49.9 65 Minnesota 8 12 20 27 27 38 49 55 70 78 94 FCS
38.8 9 39 FCS 49.7 56 Virginia 9 18 26 29 31 39 40 42 65 72 104 FCS
39.5 1 44 118 52.3 62 Tennessee 1 7 12 16 42 44 54 66 79 88 101 118
40.6 1 39 FCS 49.8 44 Vanderbilt 1 12 16 26 33 39 42 54 62 85 107 FCS
41.3 3 65 FCS 54.3 32 Kansas 3 4 9 18 22 65 69 72 78 85 106 FCS
See the complete list if your team isn't in the top 20. The sort order is based upon what I call the "weighted median" - it's a measure of how top or bottom -heavy a subset of ordinal ranks is.

A better use of last year's rankings is to find the most "interesting" games scheduled for this year. The interconference matchups between teams in the top 60, ordered by how closely the teams finished in 2008 and the top 40 conference matchups are:
Week - Interconference Games
1 #13 Oregon @ #10 Boise St (Thursday)
2 #3 Southern California @ #12 Ohio State
3 #4 Utah @ #13 Oregon
3 #20 Cincinnati @ #16 Oregon St
1 #18 Virginia Tech vs #7 Alabama —Atlanta GA
1 #12 Georgia @ #20 Oklahoma St
3 #22 Nebraska @ #18 Virginia Tech
13 #19 Florida St @ #1 Florida
13 #12 Georgia @ #26 Georgia Tech
3 #19 Florida St @ #28 BYU
1 #28 BYU vs #4 Oklahoma —Arlington TX
3 #35 Arizona @ #27 Iowa
4 #38 Rutgers @ #39 Maryland
6 #10 Boise St @ #37 Tulsa (Wednesday)
13 #40 Clemson @ #42 South Carolina
1 #39 Maryland @ #20 California
3 #39 Rice @ #20 Oklahoma St
2 #31 North Carolina @ #41 Connecticut
3 #37 Tulsa @ #4 Oklahoma
2 #39 Rice @ #9 Texas Tech
13 #42 Miami-Florida @ #44 South Florida
4 #44 Vanderbilt @ #39 Rice
4 #9 TCU @ #40 Clemson
9 #26 Georgia Tech @ #44 Vanderbilt
5 #4 Oklahoma @ #42 Miami-Florida
4 #44 South Florida @ #19 Florida St
5 #49 Air Force @ #49 Navy
6 #49 Navy @ #39 Rice
3 #49 East Carolina @ #31 North Carolina
8 #30 Wake Forest @ #49 Navy
2 #49 East Carolina @ #29 West Virginia
3 #49 Navy @ #23 Pittsburgh
10 #18 Virginia Tech @ #49 East Carolina (Thursday)
1 #49 Navy @ #12 Ohio State
1 #42 South Carolina @ #52 North Carolina St (Thursday)
10 #49 Navy @ #53 Notre Dame
4 #23 Pittsburgh @ #52 North Carolina St
12 #41 Connecticut @ #53 Notre Dame
2 #52 Houston @ #20 Oklahoma St
4 #9 Texas Tech @ #52 Houston
8 #29 Boston College @ #53 Notre Dame
3 #27 Michigan St @ #53 Notre Dame
11 #53 Notre Dame @ #23 Pittsburgh
7 #3 Southern California @ #53 Notre Dame
2 #9 TCU @ #56 Virginia
13 #53 Notre Dame @ #59 Stanford
2 #59 Stanford @ #30 Wake Forest
10 #59 Western Michigan @ #27 Michigan St
Week - Conference Games
7 #4 Oklahoma vs #3 Texas —Dallas TX
11 #4 Utah @ #9 TCU
12 #4 Oklahoma @ #9 Texas Tech
3 #9 Texas Tech @ #3 Texas
10 #12 Ohio State @ #8 Penn State
14 #16 Oregon St @ #13 Oregon (Thursday)
9 #12 Georgia vs #1 Florida —Jacksonville FL
9 #3 Southern California @ #13 Oregon
6 #7 Alabama @ #16 Mississippi
7 #18 Missouri @ #20 Oklahoma St
10 #16 Oregon St @ #20 California
8 #16 Oregon St @ #3 Southern California
4 #20 California @ #13 Oregon
6 #22 Nebraska @ #18 Missouri (Thursday)
14 #20 Cincinnati @ #23 Pittsburgh
8 #3 Texas @ #18 Missouri
11 #9 Texas Tech @ #20 Oklahoma St
13 #20 Oklahoma St @ #4 Oklahoma
8 #27 Iowa @ #27 Michigan St
5 #3 Southern California @ #20 California
9 #3 Texas @ #20 Oklahoma St
7 #9 Texas Tech @ #22 Nebraska
6 #26 Georgia Tech @ #19 Florida St
10 #4 Oklahoma @ #22 Nebraska
7 #18 Virginia Tech @ #26 Georgia Tech
4 #30 Wake Forest @ #29 Boston College
13 #23 Pittsburgh @ #29 West Virginia (Friday)
10 #30 Wake Forest @ #26 Georgia Tech
12 #31 North Carolina @ #29 Boston College
11 #29 West Virginia @ #20 Cincinnati (Friday)
11 #27 Iowa @ #12 Ohio State
5 #19 Florida St @ #29 Boston College
4 #31 North Carolina @ #26 Georgia Tech
6 #29 Boston College @ #18 Virginia Tech
4 #27 Iowa @ #8 Penn State
12 #8 Penn State @ #27 Michigan St
11 #19 Florida St @ #30 Wake Forest
8 #9 TCU @ #28 BYU
8 #19 Florida St @ #31 North Carolina (Thursday)
9 #31 North Carolina @ #18 Virginia Tech (Thursday)

A Relative SOS

08 Rank Team Conf NC-Avg
13 Oregon P10 443.74
3 Southern California P10 234.45
18 Virginia Tech ACC 222.21
10 Boise St WAC 182.53
12 Ohio State B10 175.46
12 Georgia SEC 171.91
19 Florida St ACC 171.69
4 Utah MW 157.81
16 Oregon St P10 153.55
20 Oklahoma St B12 151.47
39 Rice CUSA 123.27
28 BYU MW 117.46
4 Oklahoma B12 113.85
22 Nebraska B12 112.53
20 Cincinnati BigE 103.03
7 Alabama SEC 102.72
1 Florida SEC 98.20
26 Georgia Tech ACC 97.86
39 Maryland ACC 79.00
37 Tulsa CUSA 75.65
35 Arizona P10 74.12
49 East Carolina CUSA 69.53
40 Clemson ACC 69.28
42 South Carolina SEC 63.35
20 California P10 63.07
42 Miami-Florida ACC 63.02
44 Vanderbilt SEC 61.57
The formula for the "interest factor" is

(120 − better_rank)×(120 − worse_rank) ÷ (2×worse_rank − better_rank)
and since for each team that includes its own rank and how much better or worse its opponents' ranks are we can use that to define a relative "SOS" measurement. 27 of the teams that finished 2008 in the top 60 have an average non-conference game value corresponding to another top-60 finisher (See the table to the right.)

We have to be a little bit careful describing the "average interest factor" as an SOS - that is really only the case for teams that have the "better_rank." Since North Texas finished 120th last year, the value for all its games is zero. That's consistent for the Mean Green's opponents' SOS (and its amazing that averaging in that zero doesn't hurt more than it does for them) but to say NT's SOS is zero wouldn't make any sense. The weighted median version is more appropriate for teams that finished in the bottom half of the field in 2008.

As usual, for most (but significantly, not all) teams in the "power" conferences the average game interest factor is higher for all games than for non-conference games.
Rank Avg 08 Rank Team Conf NC-Avg Rank
1 413.85 4 Oklahoma B12 113.85 13
2 383.03 3 Texas B12 14.26 77
3 263.67 13 Oregon P10 443.74 1
4 247.13 9 Texas Tech B12 58.60 29
5 190.01 3 Southern California P10 234.45 2
6 184.12 16 Oregon St P10 153.55 9
7 181.88 20 Oklahoma St B12 151.47 10
8 176.17 19 Florida St ACC 171.69 7
9 171.37 18 Virginia Tech ACC 222.21 3
10 164.84 4 Utah MW 157.81 8
11 159.92 12 Ohio State B10 175.46 5
12 157.02 12 Georgia SEC 171.91 6
13 151.35 26 Georgia Tech ACC 97.86 18
14 146.45 22 Nebraska B12 112.53 14
15 138.15 18 Missouri B12 32.35 48
16 137.58 20 California P10 63.07 25
17 129.78 20 Cincinnati BigE 103.03 15
18 129.49 9 TCU MW 48.76 36
19 129.03 29 Boston College ACC 31.29 49
20 128.40 1 Florida SEC 98.20 17
Rank Avg 08 Rank Team Conf NC-Avg Rank
21 126.47 8 Penn State B10 13.51 78
22 123.17 30 Wake Forest ACC 49.21 35
23 120.54 31 North Carolina ACC 57.83 30
24 118.75 7 Alabama SEC 102.72 16
25 113.45 23 Pittsburgh BigE 59.83 28
26 108.20 27 Iowa B10 52.38 34
27 107.63 40 Clemson ACC 69.28 23
28 103.79 39 Maryland ACC 79.00 19
29 95.43 29 West Virginia BigE 39.83 43
30 94.25 42 Miami-Florida ACC 63.02 26
31 92.90 28 BYU MW 117.46 12
32 92.08 32 Kansas B12 27.25 56
33 91.49 16 Mississippi SEC 7.46 97
34 91.11 27 Michigan St B10 45.10 40
35 87.23 10 Boise St WAC 182.53 4
36 86.50 42 South Carolina SEC 63.35 24
37 83.96 35 Arizona P10 74.12 21
38 82.90 33 LSU SEC 16.02 76
39 81.38 41 Connecticut BigE 53.62 32
40 80.97 44 Vanderbilt SEC 61.57 27
Rank Avg 08 Rank Team Conf NC-Avg Rank
41 79.30 38 Rutgers BigE 36.68 45
42 73.69 39 Rice CUSA 123.27 11
43 72.90 44 South Florida BigE 48.03 38
44 65.09 52 North Carolina St ACC 41.57 42
45 61.78 37 Tulsa CUSA 75.65 20
46 55.54 38 Northwestern B10 5.00 102
47 54.26 56 Virginia ACC 30.73 50
48 53.43 53 Notre Dame ND 53.43 33
49 50.80 49 Navy Ind 54.56 31
50 47.64 49 East Carolina CUSA 69.53 22
51 45.74 49 Air Force MW 39.08 44
52 44.27 59 Stanford P10 48.47 37
53 44.09 54 Kentucky SEC 7.73 95
54 41.61 60 Arkansas SEC 18.81 65
55 40.27 62 Tennessee SEC 12.40 81
56 39.98 66 Auburn SEC 33.23 47
57 39.71 55 Wisconsin B10 22.39 61
58 39.03 65 Minnesota B10 27.38 55
59 37.34 52 Houston CUSA 45.05 41
60 33.35 59 Colorado St MW 23.63 60
Rank Avg 08 Rank Team Conf NC-Avg Rank
61 31.90 62 Nevada WAC 46.90 39
62 30.61 66 Arizona St P10 17.54 71
63 30.12 70 Baylor B12 21.36 62
64 30.06 70 Illinois B10 28.90 54
65 29.94 69 Colorado B12 23.74 59
66 28.21 72 Duke ACC 10.39 89
67 25.92 65 Southern Miss CUSA 29.95 52
68 24.93 69 Louisiana Tech WAC 30.22 51
69 24.08 71 Central Michigan MAC 29.43 53
70 22.76 72 Fresno St WAC 26.48 57
71 22.01 80 Louisville BigE 18.04 68
72 21.87 78 Purdue B10 19.59 64
73 21.71 59 Western Michigan MAC 20.56 63
74 20.90 79 UCLA P10 16.29 75
75 20.49 36 Ball State MAC 13.24 79
76 20.07 72 Hawaii WAC 18.73 66
77 19.49 78 Kansas St B12 8.18 93
78 19.03 81 UNLV MW 17.74 69
79 18.56 66 Buffalo MAC 18.63 67
80 18.53 85 Mississippi St SEC 12.32 82
Rank Avg 08 Rank Team Conf NC-Avg Rank
81 18.09 63 Troy SBC 35.07 46
82 17.63 77 Bowling Green MAC 25.67 58
83 17.26 84 New Mexico MW 16.43 74
84 17.09 84 Texas A&M B12 11.76 83
85 14.96 84 San Jose St WAC 17.73 70
86 13.34 85 UTEP CUSA 16.83 73
87 12.20 94 Syracuse BigE 9.85 90
88 12.13 88 Memphis CUSA 10.75 85
89 11.66 92 Michigan B10 7.50 96
90 11.25 80 Florida Atlantic SBC 17.06 72
91 9.71 85 Northern Illinois MAC 9.06 91
92 8.73 89 Arkansas St SBC 12.75 80
93 8.71 98 Wyoming MW 7.40 98
94 8.44 88 Temple MAC 10.58 88
95 8.21 93 Marshall CUSA 10.63 86
96 8.04 91 UL Lafayette SBC 11.55 84
97 7.54 93 Akron MAC 6.99 101
98 7.23 99 UCF CUSA 7.89 94
99 6.77 97 Florida Intl SBC 10.62 87
100 6.63 100 Utah St WAC 7.15 99
Rank Avg 08 Rank Team Conf NC-Avg Rank
101 6.02 104 Indiana B10 4.23 104
102 5.94 102 UAB CUSA 7.11 100
103 5.74 99 Middle Tenn St SBC 8.49 92
104 4.95 101 Ohio MAC 4.26 103
105 4.79 106 Iowa State B12 2.62 110
106 3.52 108 Toledo MAC 4.12 105
107 3.36 107 Army Ind 3.15 108
108 3.31 106 Kent St MAC 3.41 107
109 2.84 108 UL Monroe SBC 3.93 106
110 2.72 110 Eastern Michigan MAC 2.90 109
111 2.56 111 San Diego St MW 0.87 116
112 2.45 113 Washington St P10 1.69 113
113 2.36 111 New Mexico St WAC 1.99 111
114 1.78 115 Washington P10 1.41 115
115 1.61 114 Tulane CUSA 1.51 114
116 1.18 116 Miami-Ohio MAC 1.76 112
117 0.78 117 SMU CUSA 0.70 117
118 0.72 117 Idaho WAC 0.52 119
119 0.42 118 Western Kentucky SBC 0.55 118
120 0.00 120 North Texas SBC 0.00 120
Rank Avg 08 Rank Team Conf NC-Avg Rank

Our Real Favorite Bar-fight fodder

We can order the "interest factor" for conference races using the average interest factor for conference games (and to feed the flames, the interest factor for each conference's teams' non-conference games).
Rank Average Conf — IC_avg Rank
1 188.92 Big XII   48.16 4
2 127.10 Atlantic Coast   77.01 2
3 97.02 Big East   46.11 6
4 92.77 Pac 10   105.43 1
5 91.08 Southeastern   50.48 3
6 75.79 Big Ten   36.50 8
7 61.80 Mountain West   47.69 5
8 20.33 Conference USA   33.24 10
10 15.50 Western Athletic   39.29 7
11 10.80 Mid American   11.59 12
12 5.59 Independent   29.98 11
13 4.76 Sun Belt   11.11 13

A couple of points regarding this metric:

•It is based upon last year's team rankings. We'll have more current (though no more accurate) rankings in a few weeks. In any case, all this is a fancified weighted average, and like any other average, there's some loss of information involved.

•The conference comparisons are skewed by the number of highly-ranked teams in the conference compared to the total number of teams. There are better measurements than averages for the purposes of comparing conference strength (whatever that means.)

•The interconference comparisons are skewed by the number of non-conference scheduling opportunities - it takes only a few good OOC matchups for the Pac 10 to have a good number, but the Big East has to find a lot of good matchups to get a good score.

So, all of this is for entertainment purposes only and probably means nothing. Let the bar-arguments begin!