AP Ballot breakdown for week 12 (AP Poll 13)

© Copyright 2006, Paul Kislanko

In the Ballot comparison the teams are ordered by the best rank for which a majority of voters voted the team at least that high (see the ballot summary below) and the ballots are ordered left-to-right by how close the ballot was to the majority's consensus.

This week we have an editorial on top of the analysis. In last week's poll a voter ranked Oklahoma on the mistaken notion that they'd lost, and the AP kicked him off the board because he made a mistake, and said:

AP sports editor Terry Taylor said: "We understand mistakes can happen, but we thought this one could have been prevented. The heart of the matter here is the credibility of the poll."
Well, in this week's poll the AP still had 65 voters, and on the website with the ballots they:
  1. left out the ballot for the replacement voter (though we can figure out what it was from the totals and the 64 ballots they did publish)
  2. Identified Baton Rouge as being in Kentucky.
I suspect at least #2 would be considered an "avoidable error", and, yes, Mr. Taylor, the credibility of the poll is at stake. Actually, it's kind of hard to lose something you never had, but you can make things worse for yourself. The AP's mistakes were way more preventable than a voter's whose only mistake was thinking about his poll while doing his real job. I think if you want "credibility" you need to fire whoever updated the web site to indicate that Baton Rouge is in Kentucky.

And it turns out the mysterious 65th voter coincidentally voted exactly as the votes of the other 64 were counted. Hmmm. Evidently the AP can just invent virtual voters, and make the poll come out however they want. Credibility, indeed.

• 18 teams were listed in every voter's top 25 (same as last week, but not the same teams.)
• 31 teams were listed on at least one top 25 (down 1)
• 16 teams were listed on at least one top 10 (up 1)
• 24 teams were listed on a majority of ballots (down 1)

Ballot Analysis for Associated Press Poll
19 Nov 2006 5:50pm (Central)

Rank Points Team Maj Cnt Best #Ballots RealB
1 1625 Ohio State 1 65 1 65 7670
2 1502 Michigan 3 51 2 65 7547
3 1493 Southern California 3 45 2 65 7538
4 1451 Florida 4 48 2 65 7496
5 1365 Arkansas 5 45 3 65 7410
6 1307 Notre Dame 6 50 3 65 7352
7 1144 West Virginia 8 41 4 65 7189
8 1079 Louisville 9 42 6 65 7124
9 1076 LSU 9 36 6 65 7121
10 1047 Wisconsin 10 45 6 65 7092
11 1028 Texas 10 37 7 65 7073
12 878 Boise St 12 38 7 65 6923
13 858 Oklahoma 13 39 8 65 6903
14 821 Auburn 14 45 7 65 6866
15 735 Rutgers 15 42 6 64 6687
16 668 Georgia Tech 15 34 11 65 6713
17 584 Virginia Tech 17 39 12 65 6629
18 517 Boston College 18 42 14 65 6562
19 406 Tennessee 20 38 15 64 6358
20 355 Wake Forest 20 35 13 65 6400
21 326 BYU 21 36 16 63 6185
22 295 California 22 39 16 62 6061
23 259 Nebraska 22 40 18 63 6118
24 123 Clemson 24 34 17 46 4401
25 90 Hawaii 25 41 18 41 3903
Rank Points Team Maj Cnt Best #Ballots RealB
26 53 Maryland     21 29 2750
27 16 TCU     21 8 760
28 13 Texas A&M     21 8 757
29 6 Penn State     22 3 285
30 3 Georgia     24 2 189
31 1 Oregon St     25 1 94
31 1 Arizona     25 1 94

Ballot Counts by Rank - AP Poll # 13
19 Nov 2006 5:50pm (Central)

Team #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7 #8 #9 #10 #11 #12 #13 #14 #15 #16 #17 #18 #19 #20 #21 #22 #23 #24 #25
Ohio State 65                                              
Michigan   31 20 6 6 2                                    
Southern California   22 23 17 2 1                                    
Florida   12 18 18 14 2 1                                  
Arkansas     3 19 23 16 3 1                                
Notre Dame     1 3 20 26 11 1 3                              
West Virginia       2   6 20 13 7 6 5 1 4     1                
Louisville           3 10 14 15 5 4 4 7 2 1                  
LSU           5 7 16 8 9 8 5 2 4 1                  
Wisconsin           3 6 5 12 19 11 2 2 3   2                
Texas             2 9 10 16 16 9 1 1 1                  
Boise St             3 3 2 3 8 19 9 7 3 3 2     2 1      
Oklahoma               2 3 4 6 12 12 14 8 2 1 1            
Auburn             1 1 4 2 4 5 12 16 11 4 5              
Rutgers           1 1   1 1 2 6 9 9 12 8 7 4   2 1      
Georgia Tech                     1   5 5 23 15 11     2 2 1    
Virginia Tech                       2 1 2 3 16 15 13 10 2 1      
Boston College                           2   6 14 20 12 10     1  
Tennessee                             2 4 3 10 8 11 15 8 2 1
Wake Forest                         1     1   8 13 12 8 7 8 6 1
BYU                               1 1 3 15 10 6 11 12 4
Nebraska                                   2 3 5 14 16 15 5 3
California                               2 5 3 4 7 10 8 10 11 2
Clemson                                 1     1 2 10 6 14 12
Hawaii                                   1   1 2 2 7 9 19
Team #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 #7 #8 #9 #10 #11 #12 #13 #14 #15 #16 #17 #18 #19 #20 #21 #22 #23 #24 #25
Maryland                                         1 1 3 11 13
TCU                                         1   1 2 4
Texas A&M                                         1     1 6
Penn State                                           1     2
Georgia                                               1 1
Oregon St                                                 1
Arizona                                                 1

Pairwise Matrix for Associated Press Poll #13
(Only teams on a majority of ballots listed)
19 Nov 2006 5:50pm (Central)

Indx Team 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
1 Ohio State   65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65
2 Michigan     35 47 57 63 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65
3 Southern California   30   39 61 63 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65
4 Florida   18 26   48 61 65 63 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65
5 Arkansas   8 4 17   43 63 60 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65
6 Notre Dame   2 2 4 22   63 57 60 62 63 65 64 64 64 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65
7 Louisville         2 2   33 30 40 43 51 54 57 55 64 63 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65
8 West Virginia       2 5 8 32   48 51 50 59 59 57 59 64 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65
9 LSU           5 35 17   34 45 53 59 56 59 64 65 65 65 64 65 65 65 65 65
10 Wisconsin           3 25 14 31   39 51 54 57 61 65 64 64 64 65 65 65 65 65 65
11 Texas           2 22 15 20 26   50 59 61 59 64 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65
12 Boise St             14 6 12 14 15   36 42 54 56 57 61 62 64 63 62 65 65 65
13 Oklahoma           1 11 6 6 11 6 29   38 47 58 61 64 65 65 65 65 65 65 65
14 Auburn           1 8 8 9 8 4 23 27   41 52 59 62 65 64 65 65 65 65 65
15 Rutgers           1 10 6 6 4 6 11 18 24   40 50 58 59 63 62 61 64 64 64
16 Georgia Tech             1 1 1   1 9 7 13 25   51 59 57 61 62 60 65 65 65
17 Virginia Tech             2     1   8 4 6 15 14   41 53 63 61 59 64 64 64
18 Boston College                   1   4 1 3 7 6 24   51 51 58 57 61 64 64
19 Tennessee                   1   3     6 8 12 14   36 41 49 50 61 62
20 Wake Forest                 1     1   1 2 4 2 14 29   37 43 48 50 61
21 BYU                       2     3 3 4 7 24 28   35 41 60 58
22 California                       3     4 5 6 8 16 22 30   37 50 54
23 Nebraska                                 1 4 15 17 24 28   53 56
24 Clemson                             1   1 1 4 15 4 15 11   36
25 Hawaii                                 1 1 3 4 6 11 8 24
Indx Team 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25